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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 05.10.17

  • Asia-Pac trade was relatively contained amid ongoing holiday-thinned conditions and ahead of tomorrow’s NFP release
  • As was also the case in FX markets with the main focus being AUD which was pressured following softer domestic retail sales numbers
  • Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Minutes, US Trade Balance, Weekly Jobs, Factory orders and a slew of central bank speakers

ASIA

Asia equity markets traded range-bound amid relatively light news flow and market closures in the region. Furthermore, the mundane tone precedes Friday’s key risk US jobs data and followed a similarly quiet US session where the major indices just about eked fresh record levels. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was kept afloat by strength in mining names and Nikkei 225 (Unch.) traded indecisive alongside a slightly choppy currency, while the absence of markets in China, Hong Kong and South Korea ensured price moves in the region were contained. 10yr JGBs were quiet overnight, but still edged minimal gains amid an indecisive tone in Japan, while 10yr inflation-indexed auction also failed to drive prices with the b/c and lowest accepted prices slightly below the prior results.

EUROPE/UK

Catalan leader Puigdemont said this is the moment for mediation with Spain, while Spanish Deputy PM dismissed the Catalan leader’s address and said he is 'outside the law'. (Newswires)

UK PM May could be gone by Cspanistmas as up to 30 MPs look to oust her after her disastrous party conference speech. (Telegraph) The Times also reports that PM May is ‘one crisis from the exit’. (Times)

BoE’s Woods (non-MPC) states that domestic banks need a watertight Brexit transition deal by Cspanistmas to avoid a potentially disorderly shift of people and operations to the EU. (Telegraph)

FX

Most major currency pairs were uneventful amid a lack of drivers and with participants tentative ahead of the looming NFP data. Nonetheless, AUD/USD was pressured following disappointing Retail Sales data which showed the largest contraction since March 2013 and resulted to a reversal in the earlier AUD/NZD outperformance which had initially approached 1.1000 to the upside.

Hungary could adopt the EUR sooner than its government is suggesting, according to he nation’s top banker. (Newswires)

Australian Retail Sales MM (Aug) -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.0%). (Newswires)

Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Aug) 989M vs. Exp. 875M (Prev. 460M, Rev. 808M). (Newswires)

- Exports (Aug) 1.0% (Prev. -2.0%)

- Imports (Aug) 0.0% (Prev. -1.0%)

COMMODITIES

The commodity complex mirrored the humdrum picture seen during Asia trade in which WTI crude futures were flat and remained in close proximity for a test of the USD 50/bbl level to the upside. Elsewhere, gold was also virtually unchanged amid a flat greenback and as prices consolidated ahead Friday’s US jobs report.

US

US Treasury futures were flat, with little move in yields or the major curves. US 10-Year future for December settled unchanged at 125-10+. But although Treasuries were going sideways, there was a little more action in Fed Funds futures, where the implied probability of a December hike moved around 5ppts higher to around 83%.

US Senate voted to advance the nomination of Randal Quarles to the FOMC board. (Newswires)
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