Newsquawk

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  • SAT: Japanese LDP Leadership Election
  • SUN: OPEC+ Meeting
  • MON: EZ Construction PMI (Sep), Sentix (Oct), US Employment Trends (Sep), New Zealand NZIER (Q3)
  • TUE: EIA STEO; German Industrial Orders (Aug), US International Trade (Aug), Canadian Trade Balance (Aug), Ivey PMI (Sep), Chinese FX Reserves (Sep)
  • WED: RBNZ & NBP Policy Announcements, FOMC Minutes (Sep), BoJ's Ueda; Japanese Overtime Pay (Aug),...
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  • European bourses and US futures are firmer into a quieter than initially scheduled session on account of the gov't shutdown, ES +0.3%.
  • DXY underpressure, down to a 97.70 trough. JPY is the relative laggard after remarks from Ueda, NZD continues to climb.
  • USTs await ISM Services, Bunds unreactive to PMI revisions and remarks from Lagarde re. Knot. Gilts are attentive to the OBR's first forecast round.
  • Crude saw fleeting upside...
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  • APAC stocks were mostly firmer, taking their cue from Wall Street’s gains amid light newsflow, whilst the looming delay of the US jobs report due to the government shutdown keeps focus on Fed speak and ISM data.
  • US President Trump said he is considering taxpayer rebates of USD 1,000–2,000 funded by tariff revenue, according to Reuters.
  • USD/JPY saw upside momentum as BoJ Governor Ueda stressed the importance of maintaining an accommodative monetary environment to...
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  • European bourses are mostly higher as the solid start to the quarter continues, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%; US futures marginally extend on Wednesday's gains, ES +0.3%
  • DXY currently lower for a 5th consecutive session, peers modestly firmer across the board with JPY leading
  • EGBs softer into supply but despite mixed/tepid taps the complex has lifted back to initial marginal peaks, USTs flat with the docket thinner than usual
  • Crude began firmer but...
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  • APAC stocks were firmer, with gains across the board following a positive handover from Wall Street, where tech outperformed, whilst the US jobs reports this week look set to be delayed after CR votes failed again on Wednesday, as expected.
  • Fitch said a US government shutdown does not have near-term implications for the ‘AA+’/stable US sovereign rating; S&P estimated the shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.1–0.2 ppts per week.
  • 10yr JGB futures came under...
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  • US Government has officially gone into a shutdown. Weighing on the general risk tone in the early morning and the USD.
  • European bourses have since bounce and extended to highs, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; Healthcare leading. Stateside, futures remain lower awaiting data, ES -0.3%.
  • DXY delved as low as 97.46 before recovering modestly, JPY tops the leaderboard, GBP & EUR both firmer though EUR losing some steam more recently.
  • USTs contained...
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  • APAC stocks traded mixed following modest gains on Wall Street, with focus on the length of the US government shutdown after the Senate rejected the House-passed CR, whilst Chinese participants were away for Golden Week.
  • The Senate has rejected the House-passed CR (as expected), cementing a shutdown, while House and Senate GOP leaders will hold a 10 a.m. (15:00 BST) news conference Wednesday, according to Politico, citing sources.
  • BoJ Tankan Survey came in mixed and...
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  • European bourses & US futures modestly lower into a session of data & Fed speak, awaiting updates on the increasingly likely US gov't shutdown.
  • DXY extending on recent pressure, EUR and GBP both firmer, JPY bid for a 3rd consecutive session, AUD bolstered by a hawkish-hold.
  • Fixed benchmarks hit highs on cooler French HICP but have since trimmed with EGBs in the red after hotter German State CPIs, mainland due shortly
  • Crude continues...
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  • APAC stocks traded flat/mixed following a mostly but modestly firmer handover from Wall Street, with focus on the looming US government shutdown and the possibility of delayed NFP. Meanwhile, the White House announcement of further tariff details overnight capped upside in sentiment.
  • The White House announced tariffs, including a 10% levy on timber and lumber from 14th October, alongside 25% duties on cabinets and vanities, with further hikes on cabinets and upholstered furniture set for...
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  • A firmer start to the week for equities, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, ES +0.5%; focus on a packed labour market agenda for the week and the looming US gov't shutdown.
  • President Trump will be meeting with congressional leaders at 20:00BST/15:00ET; ahead of this, Trump has said if the Democrats refuse to make a deal "the country closes".
  • USD pulling back from last week's data induced gains, JPY leads into a packed week and supported by BoJ's Noguchi. EUR & GBP also...
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  • APAC stocks eventually traded mostly firmer following the positive Wall Street performance on Friday, albeit participants remain cautious ahead of a risk-packed week that culminates with Friday’s US jobs report.
  • US President Trump said he will discuss the looming government shutdown with congressional leaders on Monday and believes Democrats may want to make a deal; he added that if Democrats refuse to make a deal, "the country closes", according to Reuters.
  • The...
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  • MON:
  • TUE: RBA Announcement, BoJ Summary of Opinions, Japanese Retail Sales (Aug), Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs Final (Sep), UK GDP (Q2), French CPI Prelim (Sep), German CPI Prelim (Sep), EZ Sentiment Survey (Sep).
  • WED: RBI Policy Announcement; Japanese Tankan (Q3), US, EZ & UK Final Manufacturing PMI (Sep), EZ Flash HICP (Sep), US ADP (Sep), ISM Manufacturing (Sep).
  • THU: Swiss CPI (Sep), EZ Unemployment (Aug), US Challenger...
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  • US President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Pharmaceuticals, 50% tariffs on all Kitchen Cabinets, Bathroom Vanities, and associated products, a 30% tariff on Upholstered Furniture, and a 25% tariff will be imposed on all “Heavy Trucks” made in other parts of the world.
  • European bourses seemingly shrug off Trump’s latest barrage of tariffs; US equity futures trade tentatively into US PCE.
  • USD rally pauses for breath ahead of PCE; EUR unmoved by ECB Survey of...
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  • US President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Pharmaceuticals, 50% tariffs on all Kitchen Cabinets, Bathroom Vanities, and associated products, a 30% tariff on Upholstered Furniture,  and a 25% tariff will be imposed on all “Heavy Trucks” made in other parts of the world.
  • US President Trump signed an executive order on TikTok, saying he had good talks with Chinese President Xi and that China is fully on board. 
  • EU plans to impose tariffs of 25–50% on...
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  • US President Trump is to sign executive orders at 15:30 ET (20:30 BST) on Thursday; potentially on TikTok
  • The White House Budget Office instructed federal agencies to prepare workforce reduction plans for potential mass layoffs amid the threat of a government shutdown, according to Politico.
  • European bourses are lower and have recently made fresh troughs after the European Commission investigates SAP; US equity futures trade tentatively into a packed US data slate...
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  • APAC stocks traded mixed for most of the session before eventually tilting modestly higher, following a softer Wall Street handover.
  • US President Trump is expected to sign the TikTok deal on Thursday, according to Semafor, citing an official; US President Trump is to sign executive orders at 15:30 ET (20:30 BST) on Thursday.
  • The White House Budget Office instructed federal agencies to prepare workforce reduction plans for potential mass layoffs amid the threat...
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  • European bourses are modestly lower; US equity futures are incrementally firmer/flat.
  • USD is attempting to atone for recent losses. EUR digests soft German Ifo.
  • Fixed benchmarks are firmer; Bunds caught a bid on softer-than-expected German Ifo metrics.
  • Crude briefly boosted by reports that Israel's army has taken "another step" in the plan to occupy Gaza city; XAU takes a breather from recent upside.
  • Looking ahead,...
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  • APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following the subdued lead from Wall Street; Japanese markets returned from holiday, Chinese markets were choppy before posting gains.
  • Fed Chair Powell said that towards the next meeting, the Fed will look at labour market, growth data, and inflation data to assess whether policy is in the right place, adding that if it is not, they will move it there.
  • DXY edged higher throughout the APAC session, EUR/USD briefly dipped under...
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  • European bourses gradually climb higher and currently at peaks; US equity futures are flat awaiting Fed Chair Powell.
  • GBP hit by soft PMI, Eurozone data showed diverging fortunes for manufacturing and services.
  • USTs are essentially flat; Gilts modestly out-edge peers following disappointing flash PMI metrics.
  • Crude initially in the red but have managed to climb higher, XAU at another ATH, catching a bid on reports that China aims to become...
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  • APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the positive sentiment from Wall Street failed to sustain during APAC trade despite a lack of fresh catalysts. there was an absence of Japanese volume as participants were away due to the Autumnal Equinox holiday.
  • OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, with NVIDIA to invest up to USD 100bln in OpenAI.
  • US President Trump to speak at 09:50 ET /14:50 BST at the UN General...
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  • US lawmakers face a deadline of September 30th to pass a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. Members of the Senate are not scheduled to return to Washington until September 29th, and House lawmakers are not due to return until October 7th, according to NBC.
  • European and US equity futures are broadly lower; ASML +2.5% boosted after a broker upgrade.
  • USD trims post-FOMC upside ahead of a slew of Fed speak; GBP and EUR leads.
  • Fixed...
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  • APAC stocks traded mixed after Chinese markets failed to benefit from the phone call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi on Friday, with some citing a lack of concrete progress.
  • US lawmakers face a deadline of September 30th to pass a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. Members of the Senate are not scheduled to return to Washington until September 29th, and House lawmakers are not due to return until October 7th, according to NBC.
  • Estonia...
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  • MON: PBoC LPR, EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Sep)
  • TUE: Riksbank Announcement, EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Sep)
  • WED: CNB Announcement, Australian CPI (Aug), German Ifo Survey (Sep)
  • THU: SNB Announcement, Banxico Announcement, BoJ Minutes, PBoC MLF, German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Oct), US Durable Goods (Aug), US GDP (Q2), US PCE (Q2)
  • FRI: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Sep), US PCE (Aug), US University of Michigan Final...
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  • BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.50%, as expected, but surprised markets with the announcement to begin selling ETF and J-REIT holdings.
  • European bourses are mostly higher whilst US equity futures are flat.
  • USD extends its winning streak, GBP underperforms and is pressured by woeful borrowing data, which puts added pressure on UK Chancellor Reeves.
  • USTs are slightly lower awaiting Fed speak, JGBs hit on the BoJ, Gilts lag after concerning...
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  • BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.50%, as expected, but surprised markets with the announcement to begin selling ETF and J-REIT holdings.
  • US President Trump said he will be harsh if he has to ask Russian President Putin for a ceasefire, but it doesn't feel like the time to do so.
  • US President Trump reportedly seeks to speed up large power projects to meet AI demand.
  • APAC stocks traded mixed as the region only partially sustained the...
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