• European bourses opened stronger, but sentiment has dipped off best levels; US equity futures are modestly firmer, with mild outperformance is seen in the NQ.
• DXY is flat, Antipodeans benefit from a rebound in metals prices with outperformance in the Aussie after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps (as expected), whilst the SoMP noted that underlying inflation is higher than expected.
• Fixed income on the backfoot with supply in focus in a shutdown-thinned US...

• APAC stocks were mostly higher with several bourses firmly recovering from the prior day's sell-off, as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street.
• US President Trump announced that India will stop buying Russian oil, while the US will be lowering tariffs on India to 18% from 25%.
• RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps as expected in a unanimous decision, marking the first hike in over two years; RBA's SoMP noted that underlying inflation is...

• European bourses opened lower but now display a mixed picture; US equity futures are entirely in the red with the NQ leading losses, focus on NVIDIA/Oracle.
• DXY is flat, Aussie initially underperformed as metals got hit but now CHF lags as the risk-tone improves. JPY digests Takaichi comments and new polling which places LDP in a strong position.
• Fixed initially bid given the risk tone, but pulling back as sentiment turns mixed in...

• APAC stocks pressured with several bearish factors weighing, incl. the partial US shutdown, weak Chinese PMIs & NVIDIA's OpenAI investment stalling.
• DXY rangebound, EUR firmer but below 1.19. USD/JPY initially benefited from Takaichi's remarks, though subsequent clarification unwound this.
• Fixed benchmarks mixed, JGBs benefit from the latest election polling.
• Crude benchmarks hit alongside APAC stocks, OPEC+ maintained the pause as...

OPEC MEETING (SUN): OPEC+ is widely expected to keep its pause on oil output increases in place for March when eight key members meet on Sunday, after a sharp rebound in prices this month. Delegates told Reuters there is little appetite to change policy after Brent prices climbed by around 8% in January to above USD 70/bbl, supported by supply disruptions rather than demand. Bloomberg also reports expectations are for policy to remain unchanged, with delegates saying there is no immediate need to respond to...

• US President Trump says he will announce his Fed pick on Friday. Reports suggest the administration is leaning towards Warsh.
• DXY bid, USTs lower with the yield curve steeper and US equity futures down (ES -0.8%) amid the Warsh speculation.
• XAU lost the USD 5k/oz handle and XAG below USD 100/oz in a pullback from recent highs and amid USD strength.
• Crude curtailed by the USD, and as Trump plans to meet with Iranian...

• US President Trump says he will announce his Fed pick on Friday. Reports suggest the administration is leaning towards Warsh.
• DXY gained amid the Warsh speculation, to the detriment of G10 peers. USTs under pressure following this.
• Apple shares ended the extended US session flat, having initially risen after profit and revenue beat, driven by exceptionally strong iPhone demand.
• European futures point to a firmer open, US futures hit by the...

• US Senate Majority Leader Thune sees a possibility to avoid a shutdown by week’s end after Senate Minority Leader Schumer laid out Democrats' demands on ICE, CNN reported.
• European bourses are broadly firmer though DAX 40 has been pressured by losses in SAP, after disappointing cloud backlogs.
• In the pre-market: Microsoft (-6.4%, strong results, though AI spending and disappointing cloud growth weigh), Meta (+7.5%, posts record sales), and Tesla (+2%, annual revenue...

• APAC stocks were mostly subdued, with sentiment in the region clouded following a lack of fireworks at the FOMC; mega-cap US earnings saw Meta (META) rise 6.6%, Microsoft (MSFT) slip 6%, while Tesla (TSLA) rose 1.9%.
• FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as expected, with the vote split at 10-2 (Miran and Waller called for a 25bps rate cut).
• Fed Chair Powell said rates are in a plausible range of neutral and at the higher end of the range of...

• European bourses are broadly lower; LVMH (-8%) sinks post-earnings, whilst ASML (+4.9%) gains after the company beat across its headline metrics, provided a rosy outlook, and announced a EUR 12bln share buyback.
• NQ boosted by ASML & SK Hynix earnings, as well as reports that China is said to have approved the first batch of NVIDIA's (+1.7%) H200 AI chips for import.
• DXY attempts a recovery to the detriment of G10s; AUD among the better performers...

• APAC stocks traded mixed with an early positive bias seen following the mostly constructive handover from Wall Street, although some cautiousness began to seep through ahead of looming key risk events.
• China is said to have approved the first batch of NVIDIA's (NVDA) H200 AI chips for import, with sources noting that China has granted approval for the import of several hundred thousand H200 AI chips, later reported to be over 400,000.
• ANZ shifted its RBA call, in...

• US President Trump's announced he is to raise tariffs on South Korean autos, lumber, pharma, and all other reciprocal tariffs to 25% from 15% due to Korea not yet enacting the trade deal.
• USD/JPY fell sharply below 154.00 without a clear catalyst, in a move similar to Friday’s post-Ueda drop, DXY is slightly lower.
• European and US equity futures are broadly in the green; a slew of US earnings are on the docket.
• Fixed benchmarks hold a...

• APAC stocks were mostly higher following on from the rebound on Wall Street, but with some of the gains capped ahead of key events and big tech earnings stateside.
• KOSPI sold off at the open following US President Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on South Korean autos, lumber, pharma, and all other reciprocal tariffs to 25% from 15% due to its legislature not yet enacting the US-Korea trade deal.
• Spot gold rebounded from the prior session's trough with a brief...

• US Senate Minority Leader Schumer threatened a partial government shutdown over DHS funding following the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis man by a Border Patrol agent on Saturday.
• European bourses are mostly on the backfoot; US equity futures are incrementally lower.
• JPY surges on double intervention risks, and after PM Takaichi warned that the government is ready to take action against speculative moves; DXY pressured.
• Global fixed income...

• APAC stocks were mostly subdued amid Japanese intervention concerns and US President Trump's latest tariff threat against Canada; Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canada if it makes a trade deal with China.
• Japanese PM Takaichi warned that the government is ready to take action against speculative moves amid a weakening currency and surge in bond yields, according to Bloomberg.
• Spot gold climbed to a fresh record high after breaching the USD 5,000/oz level for the...

• Mon: Australian Holiday (Australia Day), German Ifo (Jan).
• Tue: Chinese Industrial Profits (Dec), US Richmond Fed (Jan), US Consumer Confidence (Jan).
• Wed: Fed Policy Announcement, BoC Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, Australia CPI (Q4), German GfK (Feb), NZ Trade (Dec).
• Thu: Riksbank Policy Announcement, CBRT Minutes, EZ Money Supply (Dec).
• Fri: German Import Prices (Dec), German Unemployment...

• BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate at 0.75%, as expected, with an 8-1 vote split as Takata voted for a 25bp hike.
• BoJ Outlook Report revised its 2025 and 2026 GDP forecast higher, while shifting its 2027 forecast lower; 2026 inflation was revised higher to 1.9% (prev. 1.8%).
• USD/JPY saw two-way action on the announcement, gained during Ueda’s presser before tumbling on potential MoF activity.
• European bourses and US equity futures...

• BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate at 0.75%, as expected, with an 8-1 vote split as Takata voted for a 25bp hike. 
• BoJ Outlook Report revised its 2025 and 2026 GDP forecast higher, while shifting its 2027 forecast lower; 2026 inflation was revised higher to 1.9% (prev. 1.8%).
• USD/JPY saw two-way action on the BoJ; JGBs resumed lower following hawkish dissent and 2026 inflation forecast upgrade. 
• USD traded muted, CNH...

• The proposal by NATO's Rutte does not include the transfer of overall sovereignty, Axios reported citing sources; the plan includes the increase of security in Greenland and NATO activity in the Arctic.
• PBoC Governor Pan says China has room this year to cut RRR and interest rates, pledging flexible use of tools.
• European & US equity futures trade higher as the TACO trade takes effect, after Trump cancels tariffs on European...

• US President Trump said he had a very productive meeting with NATO's Rutte, and they have formed a framework of a future deal;  will not be imposing the tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st.
• The proposal by NATO's Rutte does not include the transfer of overall sovereignty, Axios reported citing sources; the plan includes the increase of security in Greenland and NATO activity in the Arctic.
• US President Trump said he likes keeping NEC...

• US President Trump said Iran will be "wiped off the face of the Earth" if Iran attempts to carry out an assassination threat against him, NewsNation reported.
• US President Trump said having Greenland makes a much more effective golden dome, will probably be able to work something out with Europe at Davos.
• European bourses are broadly in the red whilst US equity futures attempt to stabilise following significant losses in the prior...

• US President Trump said Iran will be "wiped off the face of the Earth" if Iran attempts to carry out an assassination threat against him, NewsNation reported.
• US President Trump said having Greenland makes a much more effective golden dome, will probably be able to work something out with Europe at Davos.
• JGBs rebounded slightly, with the 40-year yield falling below 4% as Japan's Finance Minister called on investors to calm down; USD/JPY chopped around...

• Global fixed income in the red, taking lead from marked pressure in JGBs on fiscal concerns driving JPY action.
• European bourses are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit on renewed trade tensions; US equity futures also pressured, NQ -2.1%.
• DXY hampered and currently at lows, CHF leads whilst EUR/USD tops 1.1700.
• Crude choppy with specifics light, XAU and XAG continue to make ATHs.
• US President Trump threatened to...

• US President Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on French wines and Champagne following France's intention to decline the invitation to join his 'Board of Peace'.
• US President Trump said he had a good phone call with NATO Secretary General Rutte about Greenland, and has agreed to meet various parties in Davos. 
• Spot XAU extended beyond USD 4700/oz, and DXY eventually dipped below 99.00 amid a continuation of...

• US President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on eight European countries, effective February 1st, over Greenland. The tariff will be increased to 25% on June 1st, unless a deal is reached for the purchase of Greenland.
• The EU is preparing EUR 93bln of tariffs on the US or restrict American companies from the European market, in retaliation to the latest threat by US President Trump, as European leaders meet for an emergency meeting on Thursday, the FT...