• US equity futures are firmer, ES +0.4%, picking back up from yesterday's pressure with the NQ +0.7% outperforming amid a pull-back in yields.
• Major bourses in Europe are softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, in an indecisive morning; following eventual upside in APAC markets.
• Dollar drifts alongside Treasury yields; Aussie rules G10 roost; Pound retains post-UK inflation momentum but wary about further political upheaval.
• WTI and Brent front month futures are choppy intraday, spot gold/silver are contained, LME copper remains supported.
• Looking ahead highlights include ECB Minutes, US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, Existing Home Sales. Earnings from American Airlines and Netflix.

Note, we have updated the format of this research report to make it more digestible and informative for clients. Any feedback on these changes would be greatly appreciated by the desk.

LOOKING AHEAD

• ECB Minutes, US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, Existing Home Sales. Earnings from American Airlines and Netflix.

Click here for the Week Ahead preview

APAC TRADE

• Asian equity markets eventually traded mostly higher but with price action choppy after US bourses waned.
• ASX 200 (+0.1%) lacked firm direction.
• Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) was choppy on FX fluctuations and positive domestic trade data.
• Hang Seng (+3.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) benefited from PBoC LPR action in APAC hours.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate 3.70% (Prev. 3.80%); 5-Year LPR 4.60% (Prev. 4.65%)
• China Q4 Beige Book noted that if China maintains zero COVID policy, services could face extreme pressure on both the supply and demand side (Newswires)
• PBoC injected CNY 100bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 90bln net injection.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Dec) -582.4B vs. Exp. -784.1B (Prev. -955.6B)
• Exports YY (Dec) 17.5% vs. Exp. 16.0% (Prev. 20.5%); Imports YY (Dec) 41.1% vs. Exp. 42.8% (Prev. 43.8%)
• Australian Employment (Dec) 64.8k vs. Exp. 43.3k (Prev. 366.1k); Unemployment Rate (Dec) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 4.6%)

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• Major bourses in Europe are softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, in an indecisive morning as initial post-PBoC upside fizzled out with catalysts/drivers minimal.
• US equity futures are firmer, ES +0.4%, picking back up from yesterday's pressure with the NQ +0.7% outperforms amid a pull-back in yields
• European sectors are mixed with Travel & Leisure modestly outperforming while Oil & Gas and Banking benchmarks lagging given crude and yield action respectively.

Click here for a detailed summary.

FX

• Dollar drifts alongside Treasury yields after solid 20 year auction and ahead of jobless claims, Philly Fed and existing home sales.
• Aussie rules G10 roost as upbeat jobs data leads to more hawkish and aggressive RBA rate and QE expectations.
• Pound retains post UK inflation momentum but wary about further political upheaval, Norwegian Crown slips as Norges Bank sticks to tightening in March script and USD/TRY moves lower on an unchanged CBRT decision which emphasises the aim of prioritising the TRY.
• However, Yuan remains firm after PBoC sets near 4 year high CNY midpoint fix and trims Chinese LPRs.
• Norges Bank Key Policy Rate: 0.50% vs. Exp. 0.50% (Prev. 0.50%). Reiterates guidance to a March hike, click here for full details and analysis.

Click here for a detailed summary.

Notable Expiries, NY Cut:

• EUR/USD: 1.1285-90 (862M), 1.1300-10 (3.4BN), 1.1315-25 (1.04BN), 1.1330-35 (656M), 1.1345-50 (1.73BN), 1.1360 (579M), 1.1375-80 (398M), 1.1395-00 (598M), 1.1450-55 (1.35BN), 1.1480-90 (657M), 1.1500-05 (810M)
• Click here for the full list.

FIXED INCOME

• Gilts tag along with a lag post-UK inflation data and waiting political developments to unfold.
• US Treasuries cautious ahead of IJC, Philly Fed and and existing home sales.

Click here for a detailed summary.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent front month futures are choppy intraday; WTI & Brent pivot USD 85.50/bbl and USD 88/bbl respectively.
• Spot gold and silver trade horizontally, but retain the gains derived in yesterday's session.
• LME copper remains supported and is nearing USD 10k/t to the upside once more.
• Kiruk-Ceyhan oil pipeline (150k BPD) has now returned to full capacity, according to Reuters citing a KRG source. (Newswires)

Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• EU and US officials are looking into February 7th to hold a joint Energy Council in Washington, EU’s Borrell and Simson would likely meet with US’ Blinken and Granholm. (Politico)

DATA RECAP

• EU HICP Final YY (Dec) 5.0% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 5.0%); core and super-core unrevised at 2.7% & 2.6% respectively.

US-SPECIFIC HEADLINES

• US Senate Democrats failed to overcome the GOP blocking of the voting rights bill and failed to get enough votes to change the filibuster rule to advance voting rights bill after opposition from Senators Manchin and Sinema. (Newswires)

Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

• US President Biden said he thinks Russian President Putin does not want a full-blown war but thinks Putin will test the West. Furthermore, Biden added that Putin has never seen sanctions like the ones he has promised, while he added that Ukraine joining NATO in the new term is not likely. (Newswires)
• US senior administration official said no option has been taken off the table in terms of sanctions on Russia and the US is prepared to look at sanctions on the largest financial institutions in Russia if there is a Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, the official stated that any move by Russian military to acquire land in Ukraine will merit a severe economic response and the White House also warned that if any Russian military move across the Ukrainian border, it will be met with a swift, severe and united response from US and its allies, while it added that any Russian aggression short of military action will be met with a decisive, reciprocal and united response. (Newswires)
• Russia's Kremlin notes there have been some positive signals on NATO's willingness to discuss some security issues with Russia but they are not fundamentally important to Russia; doesn't rule out a conversation between President Putin and US President Biden at some stage. (Newswires)
• Chinese military said a US warship entered waters near the Paracel Islands without permission, while Chinese forces followed the US ship and warned it to leave. Furthermore, China's military demanded that the US immediately stop such provocations or it will bear serious consequences of unforeseen events. (Newswires)
• Russia, Iran, and China will hold joint naval drills on Friday, according to ISNA. (Newswires)
• North Korea's Politburo meeting on Wednesday which was presided over by leader Kim, called for reconsidering trust building measures due to US hostile policy and ordered to examine a restart of all temporarily suspended activities. (Newswires)