• US stocks finished mixed (S&P 500 -0.4%) following a choppy, catalyst-lite session with indices stumbling into the close
• Asian stocks were mixed after the choppy mood in the US with newsflow dominated by geopolitical headlines
• European futures are indicative of a softer open with the Eurostoxx 50 future down by 0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.3% yesterday
• DXY marginally gained above 95.50 but with price action contained. JPY and EUR lag against the greenback
• Russian President Putin warned that European countries will be drawn to military conflict with Russia if Ukraine joins NATO
• Looking ahead, highlights include US International Trade, Canadian Trade Balance, EIA STEO, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from Pfizer, Warner Music, SYSCO, BNP Paribas, Evolution Gaming, BP, Ocado and SSE

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As of 06:24GMT/01:24EST

LOOKING AHEAD

• US International Trade, Canadian Trade Balance, EIA STEO, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from Pfizer, Warner Music, SYSCO, BNP Paribas, Evolution Gaming, BP, Ocado and SSE.

Click here for the Week Ahead preview

US TRADE

• US stocks finished mixed following a choppy, catalyst-lite session despite plenty of geopolitical rhetoric with indices stumbling into the close.
• CLOSES: S&P 500 -0.4% at 4,483, Nasdaq 100 -0.8% at 14,571, Dow Jones +0.0% at 35,090 Russell 2000 +0.5% at 2,012.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US House Rules Committee is preparing a stopgap spending bill to fund the government through to March 11th and avert a shutdown next week, according to Fox's Pergram.
• US President Biden's administration has written to EU's Schwab, who is leading the Digital Market Act negotiations, to relay concerns around the implementation period for the legislation; in response, Schwab accused US officials of using security concerns to perpetuate big tech's power, via FT citing letters.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• Asian stocks were mixed after the choppy mood in the US with global newsflow dominated by geopolitical headlines despite a lack of developments.
• ASX 200 (+1.1%) was led by miners and with the top-weighted financials sector lifted after earnings updates from Macquarie and Suncorp.
• Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was supported by favourable currency flows and after US agreed to roll back Trump-era steel tariffs on a quota of Japanese steel products, but with upside limited after disappointing data including the miss on Household Spending and Labour Cash Earnings.
• Hang Seng (-1.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) initially pressured with Hong Kong announcing tighter COVID-19 restrictions and amid US-China related frictions in which WuXi Biologics slumped more than 30% and its shares were halted after the inclusion of two units in the US ‘unverified’ list, while tech was also subdued with the ChiNext board now eyeing a bear market.
• US equity futures were rangebound overnight; E-mini S&P -0.0%, E-mini Nasdaq 100 -0.1%.
• European futures are indicative of a softer open with the Eurostoxx 50 future down by 0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.3% yesterday.

FX

• DXY marginally gained above 95.50 but with price action contained
• EUR/USD was subdued in a continuation of its recent choppy mood and after ECB's Lagarde pushed back against ‘measurable tightening’.
• GBP/USD traded sideways amid light pertinent newsflow and somewhat varied spending and sales data for January.
• USD/JPY benefitted from yield differentials with JPY also pressured by weak Household Spending and a surprise Current Account deficit.
• Antipodeans pulled back from yesterday's outperformance amongst cyclical currencies, but with downside stemmed on hawkish RBA calls.
• Former RBA board member Edwards sees the RBA to start moving rates in August and thinks there could be four rate hikes this year, according to WSJ. Also, ANZ Bank sees every meeting by the RBA in June to be live.

FIXED INCOME

• 10-year USTs extended on Monday’s lows beneath 127.00 after the recent hawkish Fed bets and with little in terms of fresh catalysts to shift the current narrative ahead of the CPI data later this week, while the US 10yr yield rose to its highest in more than two years of around 1.95%.
• 10-year JGBs were subdued as domestic yields continued to make headway in which the 10yr JGB yield rose to its highest since January 2016 and touched 0.21%, while firmer demand at the 10yr inflation-indexed auction did little to spur JGB prices.
• Bund remained lacklustre and failed to benefit from the more-dovish sounding rhetoric from ECB’s Lagarde.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent were rangebound in which the former held above support at USD 91.00/bbl.
• Six North Sea oil and gas fields are set to be given the green light in 2022 amid a Cabinet row over net zero. (Telegraph)
• Spot gold plateuead near the prior day's best levels amid a slightly firmer greenback.
• Copper was rangebound amid the mixed risk sentiment and underperformance in its largest buyer China.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 20bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net drain.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3569 vs exp. 6.3543 (prev. 6.3580)
• US is charging a China-based company with conspiring to steal technology with former Motorola Solutions (MSI) employees in which Hytera Communications allegedly hired MSI employees and directed them to take trade secret information, according to Reuters.
• US announced restrictions on transactions with 33 Chinese organisations whose ownership is deemed to be unverified, according to Xinhua.
• WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) said the inclusion of its two subsidiaries to the US unverified list will have no impact on business or services to partners and it is pursuing interim measures to remove them from the list, according to Reuters.
• US announced a new Section 232 tariff agreement with Japan which will remove tariffs on up 1.25mln tons of Japanese steel products, although the deal excludes aluminium and requires steel imports to be melted and poured in Japan for duty-free access, according to Reuters.
• Nvidia (NVDA) - SoftBank (9984 JT) deal to sell Arm unit to Nvidia collapses amid serious concerns on effect to competition, according to sources cited by FT. (FT) These sources were subsequently confirmed. Softbank is reportedly planning an IPO for Arm, according to BloombergTV

DATA RECAP

• Japanese All Household Spending MM* (Dec) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -1.2%)
• Japanese All Household Spending YY* (Dec) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -1.3%)
• Japanese Current Account NSA JPY (Dec) -370.8B vs. Exp. 73.5B (Prev. 897.3B)
• Australian NAB Business Confidence* (Jan) 3 (Prev. -12)
• Australian NAB Business Conditions* (Jan) 3 (Prev. 8)

EUROPE-SPECIFIC HEADLINES

• ECB President Lagarde sees inflation at end-2022 to be above the target but lower than now, while she sees inflation moving to the target leading to policy normalisation but not measurable tightening, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Jan) 8.1% (Prev. 0.6%)
• UK BRC Total Sales YY (Jan) 11.9% (Prev. 2.1%), largest increase since May last year.
• Barclaycard UK January Consumer Spending rose 11.9% compared to January 2019, smallest increase since April last year.

GEOPOLITICS

• Russian President Putin said there is no alternative to Minsk accords on Ukraine and hopes that the situation around Ukraine can eventually be resolved peacefully. Putin warned that European countries will be drawn to military conflict with Russia if Ukraine joins NATO and there will be no winners, but added Russia will do everything from its side to find compromises that suit everyone, according to Reuters.
• French President Macron said Putin agreed to review "concrete" de-escalation steps and saw terms of converging views, according to Reuters.
• US President Biden said US, Germany and NATO are ready to act if Russia makes a decision to invade Ukraine but added that diplomacy is the best way forward for all sides, while he reiterated there will be no Nord Stream 2 if Russia invades Ukraine, according to Reuters.
• German Chancellor Scholz said they have worked on joint preparations so that sanctions can be imposed quickly, while he said Germany and US will act together when asked about NS2, according to Reuters.
• UK PM Johnson noted in The Times Op-Ed that he still believes diplomacy can prevail and defuse the Ukraine crisis, while he added UK Defence Secretary Wallace and Foreign Secretary Truss will travel to Moscow soon.
• North Korea reportedly targeted the IAEA for cyberattacks, according to Nikkei. In relevant news. North Korea denied allegations it conducted cryptocurrency thefts and cyberattacks on other countries, while it slammed the US as being the hacking empire, according to Yonhap.