• Ukraine and Russia will hold a second round of discussion later today, via Tass citing an aide to the Ukraine presidential office - awaiting Ukranian confirmation.
• Earlier, Russia's Kremlin says the Russian delegation will be waiting later today and are ready to continue talks; not clear if Ukrainian officials will attend the talks.
• Losses in Europe trimmed and bourses are now predominantly positive following Kremlin commentary around today's potential negotiations, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%.
• US futures are firmer, ES +0.7%, posting broad-based gains and similarly benefitting from the Kremlin commentary; though, focus turns to Fed Chair Powell's testimony
• USD outperforms but has backed-off 97.80+ best levels as havens wane amid an improvement in sentiment, EUR continues to lag but is off worst levels
• WTI and Brent are experiencing another session of substantial gains, posting upside in excess of USD 5.00/bbl with Brent May and WTI April peaking at USD 113.02/bbl and USD 111.50/oz respectively
• Looking ahead, US ADP, BoC Policy Announcement, OPEC+, Ukraine-Russia Meeting (Time TBC). Speeches from Fed's Powell, Bullard & Evans, ECB's Lane.

As of 11:25GMT/06:25EST

LOOKING AHEAD

• US ADP, BoC Policy Announcement, OPEC+, Ukraine-Russia Meeting (Time TBC). Speeches from Fed's Powell, Bullard & Evans, ECB's Lane.
• Click here for the OPEC+ Primer; JMMC at 12:00GMT/07:00EST and OPEC+ 12:30GMT/07:30EST.
• Click here for the newsquawk primer "Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Where Things Stand"
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukraine and Russia will hold a second round of discussion later today, via Tass citing a aide to the Ukraine presidential office
• Russia's Kremlin says the Russian delegation will be waiting later today and are ready to continue talks; not clear if Ukrainian officials will attend the talks. Will "not shoot ourselves in foot" with counter-sanctions. Are huge quantities of "nationalist units" in Ukraine that must be got rid of; need to punish them for crimes against own people.
• Ukraine Foreign Minister says Russia's demand are unchanged from what President Putin said at the start of the war.
• US President Biden announced that the US will join allies and ban Russian flights from using US airspace, while the DoJ is assembling a task force to go after the crimes of Russian oligarchs and the US is joining European allies to find and seize assets. Biden added that they are choking off Russia's access to technology that will sap its economic strength and weaken its military for years to come.
• US official said “he could imagine Putin detonating a nuclear weapon in the atmosphere over an unpopulated area as a warning to the West.”, according to Fox News' Bryan Llenas
• The Ukrainian army also said that Russian airborne troops landed in Kharkiv, according to AFP.
• EU Council agreed on sanctions to exclude some Russian banks from the SWIFT system and voted to ban broadcasting of Sputnik and RT in the EU.
• Russian envoy to UN Gatilov said the time has come to remove nuclear weapons from western and eastern Europe, while they see no desire on part of the Ukrainian regime to try and find a legitimate and balanced solution to problems.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says Crimea is part of Russia and non-negotiable, via Al Jazeera; will not allow Ukraine to obtain nuclear weapons
• Turkish Foreign Minister expects Russia and Ukraine to reach ceasefire agreement in upcoming talks, according to Sputnik
• Trading platform MarketAxes will not provide trading for Russian sovereign bonds and corporates until further notice
• US nuclear power industry is lobbying the White House to allow continued uranium imports from Russia, according to Reuters sources.
• IAEA Nuclear watchdogs have convened an emergency meeting in Vienna. Follows Russia informing the IAEA that is has control of territory around Zaporizhzhia, the location of a nuclear plant.

IRAN

• German Chancellor Scholz says Iranian nuclear discussions cannot be constantly extended.
• Iran says it will push for a reliable, balance and sustainable nuclear deal following its "bitter experiences" with the US.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• Losses in Europe trimmed and bourses are now predominantly positive following Kremlin commentary around today's potential negotiations, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%.
• Sectors have become less defensive as the session progressed, with Tech, Insurance and Banking names now firmer after being among the laggards around the open.
• US futures are firmer, ES +0.7%, posting broad-based gains and similarly benefitting from the Kremlin commentary; though, Focus turns to Fed Chair Powell's testimony.

Click here for more detail.

FX

• Dollar outperforms as UST yields rebound and the curve steepens, DXY above 97.800 at one stage.
• Loonie resistant amidst another spike in oil ahead of BoC that is unanimously expected to lift rates by 25 bp and could provide QT guidance; USD/CAD closer to 1.2700 than 1.2750.
• Aussie and Kiwi underpinned after strong data and as commodity prices continue to climb - comfortably above 0.7250 and 0.6750 respectively.
• Euro still lagging fundamentally and technically with EUR/USD down to 1.1060 before paring some losses and EUR/CHF sub-1.0200.
• Yen retreats as bonds correct lower and momentum fades through 115 vs the Buck.
• Rouble still reeling as Russian assault rumbles on and Kremlin rails against nationalist factions in Ukraine.

Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• Bond bears resurface after being trampled by bulls during the safe-haven stampede.
• UK long-dated supply and German green issuance digested adequately, but not voraciously.
• Deeper retracement across the EZ periphery after much stronger than forecast inflation data prompts a hawkish ECB response.

Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Click here for the newsquawk OPEC+ primer.
• OPEC+ JMMC expected to be a short meeting, indicates OPEC+ will stick to existing plan for +400k BPD oil output increase in April, according to a Gulf source cited by Reuters.
• OPEC+ is set to stick to its existing policy of gradual oil output increases at today's meeting despite the Ukraine crisis, according to multiple Reuters' sources.
• Spot gold/silver are softer as havens lost their allure amid the Kremlin's commentary around a Russia-Ukraine meeting; albeit, spot gold remains in proximity to the USD 1930/oz mark.
• Yamal-Europe pipeline has resumed eastbound gas flows to Poland from Germany, via Reuters citing Gascade data.
• Italian oil giant Eni (ENI IM) is to pull out of Russia-Turkey gas pipeline, according to AFP.
• China is reportedly moving to secure commodity supplies rocked by the Ukrainian conflict, according to Bloomberg; government officials have issued orders to prioritise energy and commodities supply security; pushing state-owned buyers to fill any potential supply gaps for barley, corn, iron ore and oil/gas.
• US Transportation Secretary Buttigieg said everything is on the table when it comes to banning Russian oil imports to the US and that active discussions on that are being led by allies overseas, while he suggested there could be more heard about this in the coming days, according to Fox Business' Lawrence.
• US Senate GOP offered a bill to ban US purchase of Russian oil.
• US Department of Energy announced an emergency sale of 30mln bbls of crude oil from SPR and said the release is aimed at addressing market and supply disruptions related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -6.1mln (exp. +2.7mln), Gasoline -2.5mln (exp. -1.4mln), Distillate +0.4mln (exp. -1.7mln), Cushing -1.0mln.
• WTI and Brent are experiencing another session of substantial gains, posting upside in excess of USD 5.00/bbl with Brent May and WTI April peaking at USD 113.02/bbl and USD 111.50/bbl respectively.

Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is modestly firmer and at the top-end of the week's relatively substantial range.

DATA RECAP

• German Unemployment Change SA (Feb) -33k vs. Exp. -25.0k (Prev. -48.0k); Rate SA (Feb) 5.0% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. 5.1%)
• EU HICP Flash YY (Feb) 5.8% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.1%); X-Food & Energy Flash YY (Feb) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.4%)
• X-Food, Energy, Alcohol & Tobacco Flash YY (Feb) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.3%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Biden said getting prices under control is his highest priority and that he will soon send Congress a request for more pandemic-related funding. Biden outlined details of his plan to fight inflation called Building a Better America in which he called for the lowering of costs not wages such as through building cars in the US and wants to lower drug prices. Furthermore, he announced a new "test to treat" program in which people that test positive for COVID-19 at a pharmacy can get free antiviral pills on the spot.
• US President Biden's administration weighs potential new probe aimed at US' edge in new technologies in a move to confront China, WSJ reports; sources say efforts could include a new investigation under Section 301. Additionally, sources add they are considering heightened scrutiny of US companies investments within China and tighter export controls on sensitive tech and greater cooperation with Asian/European allies.

Click here for the US Early Morning Note

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mostly negative following the weak handover from Wall St where all major indices declined and bonds surged as the ongoing geopolitical turmoil surrounding Ukraine spurred a flight to safety and firm rally in oil prices.
• ASX 200 gained with the index led higher by the energy sector after Brent crude reclaimed the USD 110/bbl level.
• Nikkei 225 was pressured as exporters suffered the ill-effects of recent outperformance in the domestic currency and with automakers subdued after several reported a decline in US auto sales for last month.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued following a substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC but with losses cushioned by strength in China’s oil majors and with Baidu shares rallying after it beat on earnings.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 190bln net drain
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3351 vs exp. 6.3347 (prev. 6.3014)
• Taiwan President Tsai said US President Biden sending US delegation shows rock-solid ties with the US and stated that China's military threat towards Taiwan and the region continues to rise, while she thanked the Biden administration for taking concrete actions to help Taiwan including arm sales packages and sending the delegation.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Real GDP QQ SA (Q4) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. -1.9%)
• Australian Real GDP YY SA (Q4) 4.2% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.9%)

CENTRAL BANKS

• SNB's Zurbruegg said it is important to keep lower interest rates than others to avoid excessive appreciation of CHF, while SNB will hike rates as soon as the situation requires and they will keep the ability to intervene in FX if needed.
• ECB's Nagel says monetary policy must be on guard against inflation and if price stability requires it, the ECB must adjust its policy course, impossible to forecast the economic impact of events in Ukraine.
• ECB's de Guindos says EZ inflation in February was a negative surprise.