• European bourses are hampered, Euro Stoxx 50 -3.7%, after sentiment was hit on the escalating Zaporizhzhia nuclear situation, with Russia now having control of the area
• Stateside, US futures, ES -0.8%, are pressured but remain modestly above overnight lows as participants look to today's Labour Market Report
• Ukraine Presidential advisor says they will not say the date/time of the next round of discussions with Russia in advance
• DXY continues to climb while EUR/USD and Cable lose 1.10 and 1.33 respectively
• Core debt retains its overnight bid on the initial Zaporizhzhia incident while participants look to the upcoming US data
• WTI & Brent are firmer on the session but are consolidating around yesterday's lows while spot gold/silver retain overnight upside
• Looking ahead, highlights include the US Labour Market Report

As of 11:25GMT/06:25EST

LOOKING AHEAD

• US Labour Market Report.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• A fire was reported at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which is the largest in Europe amid an attack by Russian troops.
• Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba also confirmed the nuclear power plant caught fire and said the Russian army is firing from all sides upon the nuclear plant, while he warned that if it blows up, it will be 10 times larger than Chernobyl.
• Ukraine's state emergency service later stated that the fire outside the Ukrainian nuclear power plant broke out outside the perimeter and at a training building, while it was also announced that safety of the nuclear power plant was now secured and that plant fire didn't affect essential equipment.
• US Energy Secretary Granholm said the department activated its nuclear incidence team and is monitoring events at the Ukraine nuclear plant. Granholm added the plant's reactors are being protected by robust containment structures and they saw no elevated radiation readings near the facility.
• However, since then it was reported that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been seized by Russian military forces, according to the regional authority.
• Ukraine Presidential advisor says they will not say the date/time of the next round of discussions with Russia in advance, via Reuters.
• UK PM Johnson spoke to Ukrainian President Zelensky about the situation at the power plant and said that Russia must immediately cease its attack on the plant, while he added that reckless actions of Russian President Putin could directly threaten the safety of all Europe.
• Ukraine’s armed forces have said it is possible that Russia may attempt to create a provocation at the Ukrainian border with Belarus to give the Belarusian regime a pretext to send its troops to join Russia’s invasion, according to a military update; subsequently, Belarus Leader Lukashenko says Belarus' army is not taking part and is not going to take part in the military operation in Ukraine.
• US Senator Graham called for Russian President Putin's assassination, according to BNO News.
• S&P lowered Russia's sovereign rating to 'CCC-' and kept on CreditWatch negative on increasing risk of default.
• Moscow exchange has imposed a ban on the short-selling of Euro instruments; trading on the money and bond market is to commence at 09:00GMT/04:00EST on Friday.
• SGH Macro notes that Chinese companies will be told to give priority to purchasing Russian products, which are “basically the same in quality and price” as those from Western countries.

OTHER

• NetBlocks confirms a major internet disruption in Iran, amid reports of a fire at a key telecoms datacentre; disruption has high-impact on Tehran and other regions.
• IAEA Chief Grossi says that he is still going to Tehran, Iran on Saturday
• Iran Foreign Minister reiterates the final nuclear agreement is subject to Tehran's red lines

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are hampered, Euro Stoxx 50 -3.7%, after sentiment was hit on the escalating Zaporizhzhia nuclear situation, with Russia now having control of the area.
• Stateside, US futures, ES -0.8%, are pressured but remain modestly above overnight lows as participants look to today's Labour Market Report.
• Within Europe, sectors are all in the red with defensives faring better while Banking and Insurance names come under pronounced pressure once more.

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FX

• DXY tops 98.000 (98.272 best) as risk aversion ramps up again on Russia’s seizure of the largest European nuclear plant in Ukraine.
• EUR/USD loses 1.1000 and touted support in proximity while Cable succumbs to rampant pressure and abandons 1.3300.
• Aussie and Kiwi continue to outperform with assistance from strength in commodities and technical momentum as Aud/Usd extends beyond the 200 DMA to probe Fib resistance at 0.7365 and NZD/USD clears 0.6800 convincingly.
• Zloty and Koruna cushioned by coordinated intervention.
• Rouble pivots 110.0000 pending further developments as mission Ukraine rages on.
• CNB is intervening against a weakening CZK, a step that is in-accordance with prior measures.
• NBP intervening in FX markets according to Reuters citing sources.
• NBH says it is not commenting on questions over concrete FX market interventions, according to a response to Reuters.

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FIXED INCOME

• Bonds wax and wane after latest strong safe-haven rebound on heightened Russia-Ukraine jitters.
• NFP looms, but debt more attuned to headlines from the war zone and retain a firm underlying bid.
• 10-year benchmark yields retreat towards or through key levels, like parity, 1.25% and 1.75%.

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COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks are firmer intraday but are consolidating around Thursday's trough as we await a potential third round of Russia-Ukraine talks next week and possible developments re. Iranian negotiations over the weekend.
• Specifically, Brent May meanders around USD 112/bbl (vs weekly low of around USD 97/bbl)
• Japan will release 7.5mln bbls of oil from private reserves in coordination with the IEA to cool rising prices.
• Spot Gold/Silver are firmer in-fitting with core debt benchmarks, but spot gold is yet to convincingly surpass the USD 1950/oz mark
• China's Industry Ministry (MIIT) summoned rare earth groups regarding high prices of rare earths; to fight against speculations and hoarding; asks companies to guide prices to reasonable ranges.

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CRYPTO

• Bitcoin continues to wane but remains at the mid-point of the week's range and well-off the week's sub-40k trough.

DATA RECAP

• EU IHS Markit Construction PMI (Feb) 56.3 (Prev. 56.6)
• UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Feb) 59.1 vs. Exp. 56.3 (Prev. 56.3)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

UK PM Johnson reportedly moves away from suspending the Northern Ireland trade deal with the PM unlikely to invoke Article 16 ahead of the May Stormont elections amid the war in Ukraine, according to FT

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed's Williams (voter) said the Fed is focused on management amid uncertainty and that the economy is strong but is facing upside risk to inflation. Williams said the central bank has to be data-dependent and transparent about its thinking, while he added that inflation is much higher than the Fed expected and that the Fed doesn't know exactly what the Fed Funds Rate will be next year because it will depend on the economy.
• US President Biden administration is examining if a waiver on biofuel blending mandates could assist in stabilising food prices, according to Reuters sources.
• US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said they are looking carefully to see if tariff exclusions make sense as a way to ease inflation, according to CNBC.
• Negotiations are proceeding slowly on the USD 1.5trln US omnibus spending package, Punchbowl reports.

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APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks declined amid nuclear catastrophe fears after a fire broke out at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine which is the largest in Europe and was hit by Russian shelling.
• ASX 200 was dragged lower by cyclicals but moved off worse levels on relief as the safety of the nuclear power plant in Ukraine was eventually reported to be secured.
• Nikkei 225 fell beneath 26,000 on geopolitical concerns and the extension of quasi-emergency measures.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. weakened with losses in Hong Kong exacerbated by a tech rout but the mainland was somewhat cushioned as Chinese press speculated potential lowering of MLF rates this month.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC vows to prevent default risk in the bond market and to continue the crackdown on crypto.