• Ukraine's ruling party head said the third round of talks with Russia will take place on Monday.
• US Secretary of State Blinken said the US and allies are in active discussions regarding a Russian oil import ban; Brent rose above USD 139/bbl at one stage. 
• Russian demands for sanction exemptions have delayed Iranian nuclear talks. 
• Asian stocks are lower, US futures are negative with the e-mini S&P below 4300, European futures point towards another soft open.
• DXY rose above 99.00 at one stage, whilst EUR/CHF briefly slipped below parity
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders, EZ Sentix and Ukrainian-Russia Talks (Date & Time TBC).

US TRADE

• US stocks finished lower on Friday as Russia uncertainty carried through into the weekend, with concerns buoyed after the nuclear facility attacks and signs of stress in Dollar funding markets.
• S&P 500 -0.8% at 4,328, Nasdaq 100 -1.4% at 13,837, Dow Jones -0.5% at 33,614, Russell 2000 -1.3% at 2,002.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces are preparing to bombard Odessa city and that it will be a war crime.
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said he doesn’t see progress in peace talks with Russia but have to continue talking, while he talked to US Secretary of State Blinken about providing more weapons to Ukrainian fighters and implementing more sanctions against Russia. Furthermore, US Secretary of State Blinken said unprecedented pressure on Russia will increase until the war with Ukraine is brought to an end, according to Reuters.
• Ukraine's ruling party head said the third round of talks with Russia will take place on Monday. Mariupol City said the evacuation of civilians was being postponed due to Russia not observing a ceasefire.
• Russian military is to hold fire and open humanitarian corridors in several Ukrainian cities at 1000 local time (07:00GMT/02:00EST) on Monday, while corridors from Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv and Sumy will be opened at French President Macron's request, according to IFAX.
• Russian President Putin warned that they would consider any third-party declaration of a no-fly zone over Ukraine as participation in the armed conflict and said western sanctions are akin to a declaration of war, while he added there is no reason to declare martial law in Russia.
• Russian President Putin held a call with Turkish President Erdogan in which Putin said Russia is ready for dialogue with Ukraine and foreign partners, while he added that the military operation in Ukraine is going according to plan and any attempt to draw out the negotiation process will fail.
• Russian President Putin and French President Macron held a call on Sunday in which Putin told Macron that he agreed to talks between the IAEA, Ukraine and Russia to ensure security at nuclear sites.
• Russian Defence Ministry said the use of airfields of other countries by Ukraine airforce may be considered as participation of those countries in the conflict, according to Interfax.
• Russian Ministry of Defence said the Security Service of Ukraine and Azov neo-nazi militants are preparing a provocation with possible radioactive contamination of the area near the city of Kharkiv, according to Sputnik.
• Russian Foreign Ministry said Britain has chosen to move towards open confrontation with Russia and that Russia will respond which will undoubtedly undermine British interests in Russia.
• Russian Kremlin spokesman Peskov said there will be a reaction to the economic banditry they are seeing and that a ban on Russian oil risks the most serious market impact, while Peskov added that NATO is aware it cannot get directly involved in Ukraine. Kremlin also stated that companies will return to Russia and invest one day.
• Russia said it is to service and pay Russian bonds fully on time but stated that payments on debts to foreign residents will depend on limits imposed by foreign states.
• IAEA said it was informed by Ukraine that the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant management is under orders from the commander of Russian forces that took control of the site last week, while it stated that some mobile networks and internet was switched off by Russian forces at the site so that reliable information cannot be obtained through the normal channels.
• US is talking to Poland about a deal to send Soviet-era aircraft to Ukraine in return for American F16 jets.
• US officials said Russia is recruiting Syrians for urban combat in Ukraine, according to WSJ.
• UK PM Johnson spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky and told him he would work with partners to provide further defensive equipment.
• UK Deputy PM Raab said sanctions are not a war crime and that talk of Russia using nuclear weapons is rhetoric and brinkmanship, while he added that China and India have to step up.
• UK parliament is to vote on sanction measures after the government put forward a series of amendments to the economic crime bill to crack down on corrupt elites and further ramp up pressure on Russian President Putin’s regime, according to Reuters.
• UK Chief of Defense Staff Admiral Radakin said Russian lead forces have been decimated and it is not inevitable that it will succeed in taking over Ukraine, according to the Times.
• New Zealand announced sanctions on Russian oligarchs and published a travel ban list of 100 people. PM Ardern said they will stop superyachts, ships and aircraft from entering New Zealand territory, while sanctions will prevent Russian people and companies from moving money and assets to New Zealand to avoid other sanctions.
• American Express (AXP) suspends operations in Russia and Belarus which is due to the Russian attack on the people of Ukraine. Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) are also to suspend operations in Russia in which Visa noted that all transactions initiated with Visa cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country and Mastercard said cards issued by Russian banks will no longer be supported by its network. However, Russia’s largest lender Sberbank noted that the Visa and Mastercards it issued will continue to work in Russia, according to Tass.
• Banks in Russia are rapidly trying to move to the Chinese UnionPay's system and its own Mir network after Visa and Mastercard suspended operations in Russia.
• VTB Bank is preparing to pull out of Europe, according to FT.
• PwC is to separate its Russian firm from the rest of its global network which affects 3,700 partners and staff in the country.
• TikTok limited services in Russia due to the 'Fake News' law and Netflix (NFLX) also decided to suspend its service in Russia.
• Moody’s downgraded Russia’s sovereign ratings from B3 to CA; Outlook Negative, while it cut Ukraine’s sovereign rating two notches from B3 to Caa2.
• Ukraine introduced export licences for key agricultural commodities including wheat, corn and sunflower oil.

OTHER

• IAEA and Iran issued a joint statement regarding resolving outstanding questions raised by the IAEA regarding three nuclear sites in which Iran will provide written explanations including related supporting documents to questions raised by IAEA that have not been addressed by Iran on the three locations by March 20th. IAEA will then submit any questions regarding the information provided by Iran within two weeks after that and the sides will then meet within a week in Tehran following the IAEA's submission of any questions on such information.
• IAEA chief Grossi said the exchange with Iran was very fruitful and noted that they have several important matters they need to resolve together, while he added that it would be very difficult to imagine the 2015 nuclear deal would be revived if safeguard issues are not resolved. Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear chief said they are very optimistic about resolving nuclear issues with the IAEA and that the remaining issues will be resolved in 3-4 months.
• Iran’s government said Russia’s new demands for guarantees from the US are not constructive for nuclear deal talks after Russia recently placed new demands on the table for written guarantees from the US that sanctions on Moscow would not damage its cooperation with Iran.
• North Korea fired at least one projectile into the East Sea that was suspected to be a ballistic missile, while North Korea later confirmed that it tested a recon satellite on Saturday.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks declined as geopolitical concerns lingered ahead of the third round of Ukraine-Russia talks and after evacuation attempts over the weekend in Mariupol were halted amid a ceasefire breach, while the US and allies are engaged in a “very active discussion” regarding a Russian oil embargo.
• ASX 200 weakened as tech led the declines across most industries aside from the commodity-related sectors which were boosted by a spike in oil and supply squeeze concerns across the metals complex.
• Nikkei 225 suffered a near-1000 point intraday loss with notable weakness in autos and airlines stocks.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the risk aversion after China set its lowest growth target in 30 years at 'around 5.5%' and with mixed Chinese trade data also failing to inspire a turnaround.
• US equity futures were pressured at the open on the geopolitical climate with Emini S&P below 4,300.
• European equity futures are indicative of a negative open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 2.5% after the cash market closed down by 5.0% on Friday.

FX

• DXY initially reclaimed the 99.00 level amid a haven bid but later returned flat.
• EUR/USD weakened beneath 1.0900 and the single currency briefly fell beneath parity against CHF.
• GBP/USD was lacklustre but with losses stemmed after support held near 1.3200.
• USD/JPY traded rangebound as both its base and quote currencies benefitted from the risk aversion.
• Antipodeans strengthened amid gains across the commodities complex.
• INR printed record lows against the greenback amid the oil price shock.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr USTs extended on Friday’s haven bid amid the broad risk aversion to test 129.00 to the upside.
• Bunds gapped above 171.00 before as focus remained centred on the geopolitical climate.
• 10yr JGBs were underpinned but with upside limited amid the lack of BoJ purchases.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent surged to their highest level since 2008 and briefly broke above USD 130/bbl and USD 139/bbl, respectively, following reports of discussions by the US and allies regarding a Russian oil embargo.
• US Secretary of State Blinken said the US and allies are in active discussions regarding a Russian oil import ban and reports later stated US is weighing acting without allies on a ban of Russian oil imports, although the timing and scope of any ban is still fluid, according to Bloomberg.
• US House Speaker Pelosi said the House is exploring legislation to ban the import of Russian oil.
• US officials held meetings in Venezuela amid a search for alternative oil supplies, according to FT. It was later reported that US and Venezuela discussed possible easing of oil sanctions although made little progress towards an agreement, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Japan is in talks with the US and Europe regarding a Russian oil embargo, according to Kyodo.
• US President Biden's advisers are mulling a Saudi Arabia trip to convince the kingdom to pump more oil, according to Axios.
• Canada's Alberta Province has some spare pipeline and rail capacity to export additional oil to the US, according to Alberta's Energy Minister.
• Saudi Arabia set April Arab light crude oil official selling price to the US at USD +3.45/bbl vs ASCI (prev. USD +2.45/bbl) on Friday.
• Libya NOC announced an armed group closed pump valves at the Sharara and el-Feel oil fields which reduced its daily production by 330k bbls.
• Spot gold briefly climbed above USD 2,000/oz amid haven demand.
• Copper strengthened to above USD 5/lb for the first time in history amid the broad upside across the commodities complex that saw LME nickel futures gain around 19%.
• Wheat prices extended on record highs and hit limit up in Chicago amid supply disruption from Ukraine and Russia, while China’s Agricultural Minister suggested the winter wheat crop could be the worst in history.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was weaker overnight and fell beneath the USD 38,000 level.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 290bln net drain.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3478 vs exp. 6.3442 (prev. 6.3288).
• China National People’s Congress set 2022 GDP growth target around 5.5% vs. a target of over 6% growth in 2021 and which is its lowest target in 30 years.
• Chinese Premier Li said they aim to keep the jobless rate within 5.5% and aim to create over 11mln urban jobs this year, while they will step up implementation strength of prudent monetary policy. Premier Li added monetary policy will provide forceful support to the real economy and that they will guide financial institutions to lower real lending rates, as well as appropriately front load policy and will implement new tax and fee cuts this year.
• Chinese Premier Li said they will maintain housing is for living not speculation and will explore development models for housing, as well as speed up the development of the rental housing market and affordable housing market.
• China said it is committed to resolving the Taiwan question in the new era and will advance the peaceful growth of relations across the Taiwan Strait and reunification of China.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Trade Balance USD* (Feb) 115.95B vs. Exp. 99.5B (Prev. 94.46B)
• Chinese Exports YY* (Feb) 16.3% vs. Exp. 15.0% (Prev. 20.9%)
• Chinese Imports YY* (Feb) 15.5% vs. Exp. 16.5% (Prev. 19.5%)