• European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, after an initial boost to sentiment on source reports around large-scale EU bond issuance; albeit, this upside has waned.
• Similar action has been exhibited in US futures, ES +0.4%, though performance there is positive across the board once more after a brief foray back into negative territory.
• EU is reportedly considering a massive joint bond sale to finance defence and energy, according to Bloomberg citing sources; plan could be announced as early as this week.
• EU Commission has prepared a new set of sanctions against Russia and Belarus following the invasion of Ukraine, according to Reuters sources, to be discussed today
• DXY trades either side of 99.00, with EUR regrouping and AUD pulling back while safe-havens remain soft
• In-fitting with FX havens, core debt saw a marked pullback on the EU issuance updates, benchmarks remain lower after an initial recoup failed.
• LME Nickel saw gains in excess of 100% overnight, prompting LME to suspend trading for today at a minimum.
• Looking ahead highlights include a speech from RBA's Lowe, Supply from the US, EIA STEO.

As of 11:25GMT/06:25EST

LOOKING AHEAD

• Speech from RBA's Lowe, Supply from the US, EIA STEO.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
• Click here for Tuesday March 8th CERAWeek schedule highlights.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

DISCUSSIONS/NEGOTIATIONS

• Russian forces have held fire within Ukraine, as of 07:00GMT, via Reuters citing Ifx/Defence Ministry; subsequently, Ukrainian Presidential Official says the evacuation of civilians from Sumy and Irpin is underway.
• Note, Ukrainian forces are stopping civilians from leaving Mariupol and Volnovakha through humanitarian corridors, via AJA Breaking citing Donetsk Separatists. Yet to be corroborated elsewhere

ENERGY/ECONOMIC UPDATES

• EU is reportedly considering a massive joint bond sale to finance defence and energy, according to Bloomberg citing sources; plan could be announced as early as this week. An announcement which sparked risk-on action, details here
• EU Commission has prepared a new set of sanctions against Russia and Belarus following the invasion of Ukraine, according to Reuters sources; to be discussed today, blacklisting further oligarchs, providing guidance over monitoring crypto-assets, ban export of maritime tech to Russia.
• EU will unveil a plan on Tuesday to reduce gas imports from Russia by two-thirds within a year, according to FT.
• US House Majority Leader Hoyer said a bill to ban Russian oil imports could be introduced this week.
• Shell (SHEL LN) intends to withdraw from the Russian oil and gas business, in the immediacy will cease spot purchases of Russian oil and gas.
• Ukrainian leaders are expected to send a letter to US Congress asking the US to ban from the stock market all companies that pay taxes to Russia’s government, according to WaPo citing a letter.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno announced that Japan banned exports of oil refining equipment to Russia, while Japan imposed personal sanctions on another 20 Russian citizens and 12 Belarusian citizens, according to Sputnik.
• MSCI said it is to discontinue certain indexes following the reclassification of Russia.
• Fitch decided to suspend commercial operations in Russia with immediate effect, while it downgraded Belarus from B to CCC.
• German Economic Affairs and Climate Action Minister Habeck does not see Russia halting flows from Nord Stream 1, according to RTL.
• Russian gas flows to Slovakia via Ukraine have decreased sharply, via Reuters citing Entsog data.

3RD PARTY REMARKS

• UK MPs support a package of sanctions to toughen government powers and speed up sanctions against Russian tycoons.

DEFENSE/MILITARY RESPONSE

• Russian President Putin said they will only use professional soldiers in its Ukraine operation and will not use conscript soldiers in Ukraine.
• EU Commission VP Dombrovskis says that Russia President Putin is likely to increase his military ambitions and challenge NATO in Baltic Sea nations, unless Putin is stopped in Ukraine, via Politico; additionally, Dombrovskis was sceptical about diplomatic overtures towards Putin and maintained that nothing should be off the table re. sanctions.

OTHER

• China and India are to conduct border discussions on March 11th, via Bloomberg citing an Indian official.
• Russian Foreign Ministry says that Russian and the US should go back to the principle of peaceful co-existence as was the case during the Cold War, according to Interfax.
• Iranian President says Tehran will not back down from its red lines regarding the nuclear deal, via Fars.
• Qatar stepped up mediation between US and Iran regarding a nuclear deal, according to FT sources; Qatari officials have also been working to facilitate direct talks between Washington and Tehran, should a deal be reached.
• Russia says it understands N. Korea's decision to renew missile tests, via Reuters citing Ria; when N. Korea paused missile tests it only saw increased military cooperation between Seoul and Washington.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, after an initial boost to sentiment on source reports around large-scale EU bond issuance; albeit, this upside has waned.
• Similar action has been exhibited in US futures, ES +0.4%, though performance there is positive across the board once more after a brief foray back into negative territory.
• Within European, sectors are equally mixed with Basic Resources subdued as base-metals waned after LME action while Banking names remain at the top of the pile given yield action.
• UK Chancellor Sunak and City Minster Glen met with some London-listed Cos, demanding that they signal a more robust approach towards their own holdings in Russia, via Sky News; however, some fund managers were concerned it would turn them into forced sellers.

Click here for more detail.

FX

• Euro regroups as Russia upholds ceasefire along Ukraine corridors and reports circulate about huge joint EU issuance to fund energy and defence spending; EUR/USD revisits resistance around 1.0900 and EUR/GBP either side of 0.8300.
• DXY pivots 99.000 and Gold hugs Usd 2k mark as safe havens retain an underlying bid.
• Aussie reverses amidst a correction in some metals and AUD/NZD cross retreats in wake of hawkish RBNZ calls from ANZ; AUD/USD now almost 200 pips under Monday's circa 0.7440 peaks, while NZD/USD maintains firm grip of the 0.6800 handle.
• Yen laments wider than anticipated Japanese current account deficit and higher yields alongside the Franc; USD/JPY over 115.50 and USD/CHF nearer 0.9300 than 0.9250 at one stage.

Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• Debt extending declines as risk sentiment recovers and Russia abides by no fire rules governing evacuation routes from Ukraine.
• Bunds also undermined by reports suggesting that the EU is ready to embark on huge joint issuance to pay for energy and defence measures.
• Gilts only briefly appeased by solid 2051 DMO re-opening sale and USTs remain heavy ahead of a 3 year note auction.

Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent remain underpinned and have not attempted to move with any conviction out of the sessions ranges in European hours, that sees a peak of USD 123.38/bbl USD 127.99/bbl, respectively.
• UK PM Johnson is planning to tap new areas of the North Sea for oil and gas reserves, according to The Times.
• Venezuelan President Maduro said talks with the US were polite and productive, while negotiations will continue.
• Libya's NOC lifted the force majeure and resumed output at the Sharara oil field.
• IEA's Birol says that oil prices can still go above today's prices; could release a substantial amount of oil stocks if required.
• LME Nickel saw gains in excess of 100% taking it above USD 100k/t, prompting the LME to suspend trade; spot gold/silver are firmer on the session though off highs and seemingly capped by USD 2020/oz and USD 2031/oz for gold.
• CME suspended approved status for warranting and delivery of six brands of gold and silver until further notice.
• LME has suspended trading in Nickel; suspension is, at a minimum, for the remainder of today. LME Nickel contract on all venues suspended as of 08:15GMT, inter-office trades should not be booked for Nickel after this point.
• Goldman Sachs raised its 3-month gold target to USD 2,300/oz from USD 1,950/oz, while it raised its 6-month target to USD 2,500/oz from USD 2,050/oz and raised its 12-month target to USD 2,500/oz from USD 2,150/oz.
• CCB International Global Markets received an extension on missed nickel margin calls.

Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

• US President Biden is to sign an executive order on cryptocurrencies this week which could occur as early as Wednesday, according to a Reuters source.

DATA RECAP

• UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Feb) 2.7% (Prev. 8.1%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US House Rules Committee is likely to meet today to set the parameters for floor debate on the spending package. The panel is also likely to consider a separate bill on new Russia sanctions, via Punchbowl.

Click here for the US Early Morning Note

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks declined amid headwinds from global peers as geopolitical and supply concerns remain centre stage.
• ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in commodity-related sectors including energy after oil prices receded from highs.
• Nikkei 225 fell below the 25k level for the first time since November 2020.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued but with losses in Hong Kong cushioned by some reprieve for big tech, while the mainland was pressured on developer woes after Yuzhou Property defaulted on an interest payment.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 40bln net drain.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3185 vs exp. 6.3257 (prev. 6.3478)
• Hong Kong may drop mass testing from its priorities in tackling COVID-19, according to local newspaper Ming Pao.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Current Account (JPY)(Jan) -1188.7B vs. Exp. -880.2B (Prev. -370.8B)
• Japanese Bank Lending YY (Feb) 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.5%)
• Australian NAB Business Confidence (Feb) 13 (Prev. 3, Rev. 4); Conditions (Feb) 9 (Prev. 3, Rev. 2)