• US stocks finished mostly lower whilst the APAC region posted a mixed performance overnight. 
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.7% after the cash market closed down 0.2% yesterday.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will travel to Turkey today to meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba. 
• DXY sits just below 99.00, EUR/USD reclaimed 1.0900, AUD leads in the G10 FX space. 
• US President Biden signed the executive order to ban the import of Russian oil; crude continued to gain overnight. 
• Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS, South Korean Presidential Elections and US 10yr Supply.

US TRADE

• US stocks finished lower after the US and UK moved to ban Russian energy imports, while Russian President Putin is also set to announce commodity export bans.
• S&P 500 -0.7% at 4,171, Nasdaq 100 -0.4% at 13,267, Dow Jones -0.6% at 32,632, Russell 2000 +0.6% at 1,963.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Biden is enlisting business executives and governors of two auto-industry states to press Congress to solve their differences and pass the bill to boost US competitiveness with China, according to WSJ.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

NEGOTIATIONS

• Russia announced a "silence period" in Ukraine on March 9th for Ukrainian humanitarian corridors, according to Interfax. Russia will stop firing from 10am Moscow time (07:00 GMT) on Wednesday and is ready to provide humanitarian corridors from Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, according to Tass.
• Ukraine Deputy PM said evacuation from Mariupol was again not possible on Tuesday, while there were separate comments from Ukraine's Sumy regional Governor that the humanitarian corridor will continue working on Wednesday.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will travel to Turkey today to meet with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, according to Ria citing the Russian Foreign Ministry.
• Ukraine reportedly said that it is no longer insisting on NATO membership, according to France24 citing an interview with President Zelensky on Monday night who commented "I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine".

DEFENCE/MILITARY

• US official sees Ukrainian resistance continuing to slow down Russia's advance on Kyiv and said Mariupol is now isolated by Russian forces, but they are not in the city, while the official added that the food and water situation in Kyiv will become 'somewhat desperate' in the next 10 days to two weeks.
• Governor of Ukraine's Kharkiv region stated all Russian attempts in the last day to enter Kharkiv city were repulsed.
• Poland agreed to deploy all of its MiG-29 jets to the US Airbase at Rammstein, in exchange for "used" US aircraft with equivalent capabilities.
• US Under Secretary of State Nuland said Poland's decision to put all its MIG-29 jets at US disposal was not pre-consulted with the US and said the US is looking at putting some patriot missile batteries in Poland, while US Pentagon spokesman said they do not believe Poland's proposal is tenable and that fighter jets offered by Poland raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC UPDATES

• US President Biden signed the executive order to ban the import of Russian oil, according to the White House. - US House is planning to vote on the Russian oil ban today, according to Bloomberg's Wasson.
• US State Department Envoy Hochstein said about 3mln bbls of oil is now stranded because there is such outrage in Europe regarding what is happening in Ukraine, while Hochstein added the US is in a dramatically different place than Europe as it imports less oil from Russia.
• Russian President Putin signed a decree on special economic measures restricting imports and exports to protect Russia's security, according to Ria. President Putin instructed to ensure a prohibition on the export of products and raw materials outside the Russian federation until December 31st, with the list to be defined by the government.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky spokesman said they would like an embargo on all Russian goods and services, while they want all world ports and all world channels closed to Russian vessels, according to Washington Post.
• Saudi and Emirati leaders declined calls with US President Biden during the Ukraine crisis, according to WSJ.
• British Energy Minister Hands said Russian sanctions are beginning to bite and that they are ready to work internationally on reducing dependence on Russian gas, while he added the country is in a good position on natgas supply but vulnerable on the price side.
• German Foreign Minister Baerbock said transport would come to a halt if they banned Russian oil imports.
• CBR said clients with foreign currency accounts can withdraw a maximum of USD 10k and withdrawals above this must be taken in RUB with the rule will stay in place until September 9th.

OTHER THIRD-PARTY REMARKS/NEWS

• US President Biden tweeted that "This much is already clear: Ukraine will never be a victory for Putin. Putin may be able to take a city — but he will never be able to hold the country".
• UK Transport Secretary Shapps tweeted they have made it a 'criminal offence' for any Russian aircraft to enter UK airspace.
• IAEA said remote data transmission from safeguards monitoring systems installed at Ukraine's Chernobyl site had been lost, while it is looking into the status of safeguard monitoring system in other locations and will provide further information soon.
• A source close to the Iranian negotiating team in Vienna told Iran’s state media on Wednesday that a “good” deal was on the table, but that the delay in the political decision making in Washington is hindering the process, according to Rudaw News

FUND/SOVEREIGN ACTION

• Fitch downgraded Russia from B to C due to its view that a sovereign default is imminent.
• MSCI announced to discontinue MSCI Russia IMI Select GDR Index.

OTHER

• Britain, France, and Germany called on Russia not to add extraneous conditions to talks to revive the Iranian nuclear deal, according to a statement to the UN atomic watchdog.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly mixed with the region finding some respite from recent selling despite the weak lead from the US, where the major indices were choppy after the US and UK moved to ban imports of Russian oil.
• ASX 200 gained with the gains across sectors led by tech, consumer discretionary and financials.
• Nikkei 225 briefly reclaimed 25k, but with initial upside reversed after downward revisions to the final Q4 GDP data.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. bucked the trend with Chinese sports brands underperforming in Hong Kong as Norway's sovereign wealth fund is to offload its stake in Li Ning over suspicions of forced labour, while Goldman Sachs sees China on course to miss its growth target this year by 1ppt due to the oil shock and COVID.
• US equity futures pared losses overnight but with rebound only limited.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.7% after the cash market closed down 0.2% yesterday.

FX

• DXY slightly weakened overnight and failed to hold on to the 99.00 level amid the improved risk tone.
• EUR/USD reclaimed 1.0900 with price action recently choppy and driven by geopolitical headlines.
• GBP/USD oscillated around 1.3100 with UK sanctions on Russia expected to impact UK living standards.
• USD/JPY remained underpinned by the widening yield differentials.
• Antipodeans traded flat amid a lack of fresh drivers, and after RBA Governor Lowe reiterated a balanced view on rates.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr USTs nursed some of its recent losses after treasuries were sold across the curve amid continued commodity strength, EU bond issuance plans and a weak US 3yr auction.
• Bunds failed to stay above 165.00 as the EU considered a large joint bond sale to finance defence and energy.
• 10yr JGBs were pressured amid the improved risk appetite and with the BoJ’s outright purchase operations today amounting to less than JPY 900bln.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent gained overnight following recent moves by the US and UK to ban imports of Russian oil.
• US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.8mln (exp. -0.7mln), Cushing -0.4mln, Gasoline -2.0mln (exp. -2.1mln), Distillate -5.5mln (exp. -1.9mln)
• US Crude Output to gain 850k BPD to 12.03mln BPD in 2022 (prev. saw a rise of 770k BPD M/M) and is to rise 960k BPD to 12.99mln BPD in 2023 (prev. saw a 630k BPD rise M/M), according to EIA.
• US NEC Director Deese said US and allies are consulting whether more oil releases are needed, while the White House Press Secretary said some CEOs indicated they plan to raise oil output.
• OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo said there is no physical shortage of oil. Barkindo also said they are in unchartered territory and that uncertainties keep mounting, according to Energy Intel.
• Nigerian Minister of State for Petroleum and Resources expects the country to raise output to meet OPEC quota by year-end.
• Libya's NOC Chairman Sanalla said state production is currently 1.3mln bpd which will reach 1.5mln bpd by year-end and 2.1mln bpd in 2-3 years.
• Libya's NOC said crude production is back over 1.1mln BPD, according to a statement. Libya's NOC and Total Energies (TTE FP) spoke about raising production at Waha Oil Company and return of Mabrouk oilfield to production in early 2023, according to a statement.
• Venezuela released two American prisoners following discussions with the US and the US is said to pin any easing of Venezuela oil sanctions on direct oil supply to the US, according to Reuters sources.
• Greek PM Mitsotakis is calling for “targeted and temporary market intervention” within the electricity and gas markets, such intervention is justified by the high level of price volatility; calling for a price and profit cap, alongside an emergency price setting. (Politico) Measures are to be discussed by EU leaders on Thursday
• Spot gold marginally extended on recent gains above the USD 2050/oz level.
• Copper was rangebound overnight with mild gains amid the improved risk tone.
• LME said it does not consider it appropriate to announce a trading resumption date for nickel given the continued uncertainties in the broader market and doesn't expect resumption before March 11th. LME also anticipates it will set a maximum 10% limit-up and limit-down for all outright contracts on all execution venues.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was higher overnight and reclaimed the USD 41,000 level.
• US Treasury will create a report on the future of money and payments and evaluate crypto security risks.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3178 vs exp. 6.3094 (prev. 6.3185).
• Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said they are still working on mass testing details and mass testing would still be useful, but the timing needs to be considered, and it is not a main priority for coronavirus.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese CPI YY (Feb) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.9%)
• Chinese PPI YY (Feb) 8.8% vs. Exp. 8.7% (Prev. 9.1%)
• Japanese GDP QQ (QF) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.3%)
• Japanese GDP Annualised (Q4) 4.6% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prev. 5.4%)