• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba says no progress on a ceasefire; Russia stuck to its script; holding the meeting with his Russian counterpart was not easy; ready to meet again in this format
• Russian Foreign Minister says a possible meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents was discussed, but need more preparations
• Equities continue to move lower as yesterday's exuberance wanes and further pressure emerges from the readout of the Ukrainian-Russian Foreign Ministers meeting, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.4%
• US futures are pressured, ES -0.7%, though to a lesser extent than but have been moving in-line with European bourses as geopolitics currently dominates ahead of the ECB and US CPI.
• DXY regains 98.00, while EUR wanes pre-ECB and following yesterday's advances while the RUB remains bid
• Crude benchmarks are firmer but in recent ranges amid geopolitical-premia while core debt has been choppy and lies mid-range.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Chinese Aggregate Financing & M2, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference with President Lagarde, EU Leaders Summit, RBA's Lowe, US Supply.

As of 11:30GMT/06:30EST

LOOKING AHEAD

• US CPI, Chinese Aggregate Financing & M2, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference with President Lagarde, EU Leaders Summit, RBA's Lowe, US Supply.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
• Click here for the primer on the EU Versailles' two-day meeting.
• Click here for the primer on US CPI.
• Click here for the primer on the ECB Policy Announcement.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

DISCUSSIONS/NEGOTIATIONS

• Click here for the newsquawk summary on the Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers meeting.
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba says no progress on ceasefire; Russia stuck to its script; holding the meeting with his Russian counterpart was not easy; ready to meet again in this format; ready to continue engagement to stop the war. Mariupol was the most difficult situation, Lavrov did not commit to a humanitarian corridor in Mariupol. Have two tasks now: organising humanitarian corridor from Mariupol and reaching 24-hour truce.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says a possible meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents was discussed; but need more preparations, Reminded Ukraine that Russia had presented its proposals and Moscow wants a reply. Prepared to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. Possible meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents was discussed; but need more preparations. No one here today was discussing a ceasefire; on oil/gas sanctions, says never used oil and gas like weapons.
• Reminder, prior to the Foreign Ministers meeting the Russian Kremlin said the Turkey meeting could open the way for talks between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, awaiting the outcome of today's Foreign Minister talks.
• EU is to back Ukraine's European bid although fast membership is unlikely, according to Sputnik citing reports.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC UPDATES

• UK PM Johnson told Ukrainian President Zelensky that he is committed to further tightening sanctions to impose maximum economic costs on Russia, according to a Downing Street spokesperson.
• Russian Finance Ministry said domestic banks would be allowed to lend to companies controlled by non-residents and the move will allow firms wishing to continue doing business in Russia to work as usual.
• Morningstar Indexes determined it is necessary to reclassify Russia from emerging market to unclassified and will remove all Russian securities from the Morningstar fixed income indexes as of March 31st.
• Ukraine gas transmission network operator says that Russian forces have taken control of gas compressor stations, which threatens transit to Europe.
• European Union has reached the limit of its capabilities when it comes to financial sanctions against Russia, according to NEXTA citing Head of EU diplomacy Borrell, via NEXTA.

DEFENCE/MILITARY

• White House said Russia's claims of alleged US biological weapons labs and chemical weapons development in Ukraine are false and that the US should be on the lookout for Russia to possibly use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine in light of its false claims.
• US Secretary of State Blinken discussed with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba additional security and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine and discussed Russian attacks on population centres
• US Defense Secretary Austin spoke with Ukrainian counterpart about continued provision of defensive assistance for Ukraine.
• Spain is ready to send a new batch of weapons to Ukraine, according to reports in Sputnik citing the Defence Minister

3RD PARTY REMARKS

• Pimco risks losing billions in the event of a default by Russia with the fund manager exposed to a derivative bet of at least USD 1.1bln and holds USD 1.5bln of sovereign bonds, according to FT.

OTHER

• White House said the US is continuing to engage with Iran deal partners including Russia, while it believes US and Russia share an objective on the Iran nuclear deal.
• Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Shamkhani said nuclear talks have become more complicated every hour and that the US's desire for a quick agreement indicates it has no will for a strong nuclear deal.
• Iranian Supreme Leader says Iran will not bow to pressure to reduce defensive power, regional presence and progress in nuclear technology.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• Equities continue to move lower as yesterday's exuberance wanes and further pressure emerges from the readout of the Ukrainian-Russian Foreign Ministers meeting, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.4%
• US futures are pressured, ES -0.7%, though to a lesser extent than but have been moving in-line with European bourses as geopolitics currently dominates ahead of the ECB and US CPI.
• Sectors are pressured and defensives are faring marginally better, while Basic Resources and Oil/Gas gain amid commodity action.

Click here for more detail.

FX

• Euro showing signs of fatigue following extensive recovery gains on the eve of ECB as risk sentiment sours again; EUR/USD fades from just shy of 1.1100 through key Fib at 1.1060 towards hefty option expiries at round number below.
• DXY regains composure and 98.000+ status, while Gold rebounds through USD 2000/oz in wake of no progress on a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
• Rouble remains on a firmer footing however as a Putin/Zelensky meeting is still possible and dialogue to continue; USD/RUB around 119.00.
• Forint failed to get full 1 week depo hike anticipated from NBH and Norwegian Krona capped after strong CPI data and Brent’s big midweek reversal.
• NBH increase the one-week deposit rate to 5.85% vs prev. 5.35% (exp. 6.00%).

Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• Bonds claw back some heavy losses, but fade from recovery highs ahead of ECB, US CPI and the 30 year auction.
• BTPs lag awaiting anything supportive from the ECB or President Lagarde at the post-meeting presser.
• Treasury curve essentially flat following weak 3 and 10 year note sales irrespective of big back-up in yields.

Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent are firmer but remain well within recent ranges as the benchmarks derive further upside from the Foreign Ministers remarks; thus far, WTI Apr and Brent May have highs of USD 114.21/bbl and USD 117.28/bbl
• UAE Energy Minister said UAE is committed to the OPEC+ agreement and its existing monthly production adjustment mechanism, while it believes in the value that OPEC+ brings to the oil market.
• UK PM Johnson is facing calls to urge Saudi to produce more oil, while it was also reported that Foreign Secretary Truss supports a push within the Cabinet to convince UK PM Johnson to approve the return of fracking in the UK, according to The Telegraph
• Standard Chartered expects a sharp fall in Russian oil output after volumes are displaced from the European market and sees Russia having to shut-in oil production as it will be unable to sell all the oil displaced from the European market.
• Spot gold derived notable upside from Kuleba/Lavrov, eclipsing the USD 2000/oz mark and moving to a high of USD 2007/oz from circa. USD 1980/oz prior to the presser commencing.
• LME said it will permit nickel position transfers although trading remains halted.
• Chinese nickel giant Tsingshan secured bank lifelines following the historic short squeeze.

Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

• Goldman Sachs (GS) is exploring new options for crypto currencies.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• IFS said UK Chancellor Sunak will need to find an extra GBP 10bln to avoid a public sector pay squeeze, according to FT.

Click here for the US Early Morning Note

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded with firm gains following a rally in global peers alongside an aggressive pullback in oil prices and with some optimism ahead of Russia-Ukraine talks after Ukrainian President Zelensky voiced a willingness for compromises.
• ASX 200 was lifted by strength across most industries aside from the commodity sectors following the cooling in underlying prices.
• Nikkei 225 surged with the gains magnified by a weaker currency and with Japan to raise the daily cap of foreign arrivals to 10k from 3k.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the heightened risk environment in which the former attempted to reclaim the 21k level but with further upside restricted by weakness in some developers and blue-chip energy stocks.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3105 vs exp. 6.3008 (prev. 6.3178)
• South Korean President-elect Yoon said they will transition into a private sector-focused economy not government-driven and will create jobs and expand the middle class. Yoon added they are to respond sternly to North Korea's illegal acts but leave the door open for dialogue and will build a strong defence to defer any provocation.
• RBA announced Deputy Governor Debelle is resigning to take the position of CFO at Fortescue Future Industries.
• RBNZ appointed Paul Conway as its new chief economist.