• APAC stocks were mixed as participants digested varied geopolitical headlines. China was pressured by the lockdown in Shenzhen.
• Russian and Ukrainian officials on Sunday gave their most upbeat assessments so far on the progress of talks.
• Russia launched an airstrike on a military base near the Polish border on Sunday.
• European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.1% after the cash market closed higher by 1.0% on Friday.
• DXY extended above 99.00, EUR/USD tested support at 1.09, AUD lags in the G10 FX space. 
• Looking ahead, highlights include Eurogroup Meeting, Russia-Ukraine talks (08:30GMT/04:30EDT), US-China talks in Rome, Speech from ECB’s Elderson.

• US Clocks Changed to EDT from EST on Sunday, March 13th. London to New York time gap is four-hours until the UK change on March 27th.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview

US TRADEdragging

• US stocks finished negative on Friday as early optimism from Russian President Putin's "positive developments" comments faded, aided by the refute from the Ukrainian side.
• S&P 500 -1.3% at 4,204, Nasdaq 100 -2.1% at 13,301, Dow Jones -0.7% at 32,944, Russell 2000 -1.6% at 1,980.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

NEGOTIATIONS

• Russian and Ukrainian officials on Sunday gave their most upbeat assessments so far on the progress of talks and suggested there could be positive results within days. The Ukrainian negotiator reiterated they will not concede in principle on any positions and that Russia now understands this, while he added that Russia is already beginning to talk constructively. Furthermore, the Russian delegate said talks with Ukraine may soon produce draft agreements and US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman commented that Russia showed signs of willingness to engage in substantive negotiations about ending the conflict.
• Russia-Ukraine talks are planned for Monday via a video link, with talks to start at 10:30 local time (08:30GMT/04:30EDT).
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said some small towns in Ukraine do not exist anymore due to the war and that negotiations must start with a ceasefire, while he added that the west is not involved enough in peace negotiations and he doesn’t see a common consensus to accept Ukraine in NATO. Furthermore, Zelensky called for software giants to stop supporting their products in Russia.
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said on Saturday that they are ready to negotiate but won’t surrender and that more needs to be done to hit the Russian economy, while he added that they have to remain open to diplomacy and that they are talking, but Russia continues to put forward demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine.

DEFENCE/MILITARY

• US officials said Russia requested military equipment from China to support its invasion of Ukraine, which the White House fears is a sign of increasingly close ties between Beijing and Moscow. However, the Chinese Embassy in the US said that the high priority now is to prevent the tense situation from escalating or getting out of control and a spokesperson said they “never heard of that” when asked about the report of Russian request for military assistance.
• US President Biden spoke with French President Macron on Ukraine in which they underscored their commitment to hold Russia accountable for its actions and support the government and people of Ukraine, according to the White House
• Ukraine’s International Peacekeeping and Security Centre in Yavoriv, near the Polish border was bombed and the Russian Defence Ministry said it attacked the training facility in Yavoriv in western Ukraine, which was being used to store military equipment that had been delivered from foreign nations, according to Interfax and Ria. Furthermore, Ukrainian Defence Minister Reznikov said that foreign military instructors worked at the facility, but it was not clear if any were present at the time of the strike. NATO thereafter confirmed that no personnel were hit by the attack.
• US Secretary of State Blinken condemned Russia's attack on the International Centre of Peacekeeping and Security in Yavoriv.
• US National Security Adviser Sullivan said Russian attacks near the Polish border show President Putin is expanding targets and reflects frustration about a lack of progress, while US and allies will continue to escalate pressure on President Putin. Sullivan also said the US is consulting with allies and communicating directly with Russia to warn against the use of chemical weapons and said if Russia takes a shot at NATO territory, it would trigger Article 5 and would bring the full force of NATO in response. Furthermore, Sullivan has communicated to Beijing that US will not allow any country to compensate Russia for losses from sanctions and is to meet with Chinese top diplomat Yang Jie in Rome on Monday.
• UK Cabinet Minister Gove said the attack on the military centre is a significant escalation, while he added that he wants to explore the option that would allow the use of homes and property of sanctioned individuals for humanitarian and other purposes.
• UK PM Johnson spoke to Ukrainian President Zelensky in which he outlined support the UK continues to deliver to Ukraine and said that President Putin’s actions were testing not just Ukraine but all of humanity, while he added the UK would continue to pursue more options for bolstering Ukraine’s self-defence.
• UK Ministry of Defense said Russian naval forces established a distant blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea, isolating Ukraine from international maritime trade, adds Russian naval forces are also continuing missile strikes against targets throughout Ukraine
• Ukraine said its troops were launching counterattacks against Russian soldiers in Ukraine’s Mykolaiv region and the eastern Kharkiv region.
• Ukraine NSDC Secretary Danilov said Russia is developing a special operation to disguise Belarusian soldiers in Russian uniform and send them to Ukraine, according to NEXTA.
• Air raid alerts were reported in at least 19 out of 24 Ukrainian regions, according to Kyiv Independent.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC UPDATES

• Russian Foreign Ministry official said the EU faces soaring energy prices in the wake of sanctions imposed against Moscow and the situation on global energy markets will lead to the EU paying at least three times more for oil, gas and electricity, while the official added Russia is prepared for a tough confrontation with the EU in the energy sector if necessary, according to Interfax.
• Ukraine’s atomic energy ministry said power was restored at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and that cooling systems for spent nuclear assemblies at the plant will operate normally without using backup power.
• EU ambassadors met in Brussels on Sunday to discuss a proposed list of individuals being targeted in the latest round of sanctions with Roman Abramovich one of the 15 individuals being considered, according to FT.
• Australia announced new sanctions affecting 33 Russian oligarchs and family members.

OTHER THIRD-PARTY REMARKS/NEWS

• Russian prosecutors reportedly warned companies they may seize assets and trademarks of companies that pull back from Russia and may arrest company leaders that criticise the government, according to WSJ. However, the Russian Embassy in the US refuted media claims that western companies are being threatened, according to Sputnik.
• Turkey and Greece agreed on talks to improve ties amid the Ukraine conflict.

FUND/SOVEREIGN ACTION

• Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said Russia will fulfil its state debt obligations and pay in RUB until state reserves are unfrozen. Siluanov said sanctions have frozen around USD 300bln in Russian gold and forex reserves, while he added that western countries are pressuring China to limit Russian access to its Yuan reserves, according to Reuters and Ria. Furthermore, Reuters noted that Russia is due to pay USD 117mln on two dollar-denominated bonds on Wednesday and is signalling it may default or pay it in RUB.
• Russia’s central bank decided to not resume trading of the stock market on the Moscow Exchange between March 14th-18th.
• UK Chancellor Sunak said he is urging firms to think carefully about investments in Russia and how they may aid President Putin’s regime, while Sunak added that he is clear that there is no case for new investment in Russia.

OTHER

• A missile strike on Sunday that landed in the vicinity of a new American consulate under construction in northern Iraq originated from Iran, according to WSJ citing US officials.
• US National Security Adviser Sullivan said they condemn in the strongest terms Iran's missile attack on the Kurdistan region of Iraq and will support the government of Iraq holding Iran accountable.
• US State Department said on Friday that the US envoy for Iran talks returned to Washington for consultations and the US continues to believe sides are close to a potential deal on Iran, while there will need to be decisions made in places like Tehran and Moscow.
• North Korea may test an ICBM early this week, according to Yonhap.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were somewhat mixed as participants digested varied geopolitical headlines ahead of key risk events.
• ASX 200 was underpinned by strength in its largest-weighted financial sector and encouragement from M&A-related headlines.
• Nikkei 225 benefitted from further currency weakness but failed to hold above the 25,500 level.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured amid several headwinds, including COVID-19 concerns with the technology hub of Shenzhen under a one-week lockdown, which pressured tech and weighed on Macau casino names, as well as dragged the Hong Kong benchmark beneath the 20K level for the first time since 2016.
• US equity futures rebounded from Friday's lows with Emini S&P supported at 4,200 amid some Russia-Ukraine optimism.
• European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.1% after the cash market closed higher by 1.0% on Friday.

FX

• DXY extended above the 99.00 level amid higher yields and mixed sentiment in Asia, while markets await this week's FOMC.
• EUR/USD was stuck near Friday’s lows and tested support at 1.0900, which has so far held.
• GBP/USD remained lacklustre following a retreat from resistance at 1.3050.
• USD/JPY added to gains at the 117.00 handle as yield differentials reflected BoJ-Fed policy divergences.
• Antipodeans weakened amid the cautious mood and with energy prices on the back foot.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr USTs traded subdued amid a rise in yields in which the US 5yr yield topped 2.0% for the first time since May 2019.
• Bunds languished after recently slipping beneath 163.00.
• 10yr JGBs were lacklustre as Japanese stocks remained afloat and due to the absence of BoJ purchases.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent crude declined with early pressure following reports of optimism regarding Russia-Ukraine talks.
• Baker Hughes US Rig Count (w/e March 11th): Oil +8 at 527, Nat Gas +5 at 135, Total +13 at 663.
• Iraq set April Basrah medium OSP to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 3.50/bbl, OSP to Europe at Dated Brent - USD 3.05/bbl and OSP to North and South America.
• UK PM Johnson is seeking a mega oil deal with the Saudis and is pushing for solar and nuclear energy to cut reliance on foreign oil, while the UK is also considering keeping some coal-fired power stations operational, according to Express and The Times.
• French PM Castex said the government will offer EUR 0.15/litre rebate on petrol prices from April to counter high prices with the rebate on fuel to last four months and is expected to cost around EUR 2bln.
• Spot gold was lacklustre overnight with the precious metal hampered by a firmer greenback.
• Copper declined amid the cautious risk tone and softness across the commodities complex.
• China is planning to boost its coal output by as much as it imports.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was initially subdued beneath USD 38,000 ahead of an EU vote on environmental sustainability standards measure that could lead to a ban on Bitcoin, but later recovered with support also seen following a tweet from Elon Musk.
• Elon Musk tweeted "I still own & won’t sell my Bitcoin, Ethereum or Doge fwiw".
• Japan demanded that cryptocurrency transactions be blocked if they are sanctions related.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3506 vs exp. 6.3389 (prev. 6.3306)
• Beijing's health authorities announced it is to expand COVID-19 nucleic acid testing with the capital currently "at a critical stage of epidemic control", according to Global Times.
• China’s Shenzhen will suspend public transport including buses and subways from Monday, with residents instructed not to leave the city unless necessary, as the city conducts three rounds of mass COVID-19 testing, according to Reuters. Shenzhen also halted dining in at restaurants and shut indoor entertainment venues, while companies should have employees work from home this Monday to Friday if remote working is possible, with exceptions for those in essential sectors.
• China's Dongguan suspended bus and railway operations, as well as in-person classes due to COVID-19. Furthermore, China's city of Jilin was also partially locked down on Saturday and residents of Yanji were confined to their homes on Sunday.
• China Securities Journal front-page article stated China could cut RRR and interest rates to stabilise growth, citing analysts.