• Ukrainian President Zelensky said negotiations with Russia will continue on Tuesday; Kremlin says it is positive talks are continuing.
• European bourses are pressured, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.8%, but off lows after a bout of early pressure amid Russia-Ukraine developments.
• Stateside, US futures are moving in tandem directionally but magnitudes more contained, ES -0.2%, as focus turns to FOMC
• Core debt's initial recovery fizzles out as Bunds hit resistance at 162.00, though yields remain off-best.
• Crude contracts continue to slip amid China’s COVID measures coupled with global economic slowdown fears
• Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Trade Balance and ECB's Lagarde

LOOKING AHEAD

• Japanese Trade Balance, Speech from ECB’s Lagarde.
• Note; US Clocks Changed to EDT from EST on Sunday, March 13th. London to New York time gap is four-hours until the UK change on March 27th.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

DISCUSSIONS/NEGOTIATIONS

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said negotiations with Russia will continue on Tuesday.
• Ukrainian presidential adviser said Russia's territorial claims are unacceptable and Ukraine is ready to continue negotiations on remaining issues, while the adviser added that a peace agreement could be signed within 1-2 weeks at the earliest and May at the latest, according to CCTV.
• Ukrainian President's office confirms that the Czech, Polish and Slovenian PMs are to visit Kyiv on Tuesday.
• Russian Kremlin says that work is continuing between the Russian and Ukraine delegations, does not wish to predict the outcome of talks but it is a positive that talks are continuing.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC UPDATES

• US State Department said the US added 11 members of Russia's Defense Enterprise to the anti-Moscow sanctions list, according to Sputnik.
• Japan imposed sanctions on an additional 17 Russians
• Equinor (EQNR NO) is to stop trading in Russian oil and oil products, while it will not enter any new trades or engage in the transport of oil and oil products from Russia, but noted will receive for oil cargoes in March as part of pre-invasion commitments.
• US Treasury official said Russian sovereign bond default would make it difficult for Russia to find future lenders, increase Moscow's borrowing costs and drain resources, while the official sees limited exposure in the US financial system to Russian sovereign bonds and noted that falling prices of Russian sovereign bonds suggests investors see a high probability of a default and are preparing for alternative payment outcomes.
• Yamal-Europe pipeline has suspended flows, via Reuters citing Gascade data; preliminary bids for eastward flows to Poland have emerged; subsequently, gas flows via the Yamal pipeline have reversed and flow eastwards to Poland from Germany, according to Gascade data.

DEFENCE/MILITARY

• US President Biden said they will make sure Ukraine has weapons to defend against the invading Russian force, while they will send money and food and aid to save Ukrainian lives.
• Ukrainian air force claimed that a Russian drone crossed into Poland before returning to Ukraine and was shot down by air defences.
• UK Ministry of Defence said it hadn't seen evidence to support Russian accusations of Ukraine intending to use chemical and biological weapons, while it added that Russia could be planning to use such weapons in a false-flag operation.
• ELINT News reported loud explosions in downtown Kyiv, which could be missile strikes.
• Russian forces have taken full control of Kherson, Ukraine, according to Sputnik citing the MoD.
• Ukraine Presidential adviser says Russian forces are not trying to take Kyiv at the moment; additionally, Mykolayiv Governor says the situation in the region is calmer as Russia forces have been pushed back slightly from the regional capital.
• Ukraine authorities have issued a country-wide air raid warning.

3RD PARTY

• CNBC's Kayla Tausche tweeted that NATO leaders are discussing holding an extraordinary meeting in Brussels late next week which US President Biden and other heads of state would attend, according to officials, but added it is not yet final.

OTHER

• Majority of US GOP Senators vowed to not support a new nuclear deal with Iran, according to Sputnik.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says an agreement on the revival of the Iranian Nuclear deal is on the finishing straight. Meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister in Moscow
• North Korea could conduct a nuclear test before or after the May 10th inauguration day for the incoming South Korean President, according to DongA.
• Pakistan's Foreign Minister rejects the statement from the Indian Defence Minister on the "mistaken missile launch", stating that it is "incomplete".

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are pressured, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.8%, but off lows after a bout of early pressure amid Russia-Ukraine developments
• Stateside, US futures are moving in tandem directionally but magnitudes more contained, ES -0.2%, as focus turns to FOMC.

Click here for more detail.

FX

• Euro escapes risk aversion with the aid or corrective price action in crosses and a decent RHS order in EUR/USD that lifted the pair from the 10 DMA around 1.0975 to circa 1.1020.
• Yen regroups after swoon to fresh multi year trough vs Dollar as safe haven demand resurfaces and Japan’s Finance Minister says stability is important and market moves are being monitored; USD/JPY retreats from 118.45 to sub-118.00.
• Pound holds 1.3000 vs Greenback narrowly following upbeat UK labour report.
• Loonie and NOK slide in tandem with WTI and Brent, USD/CAD over 1.2850 and EUR/NOK straddles 9.9500.
• Yuan weakens Irrespective of upbeat Chinese data as Covid concerns mount and PBoC continues to set softer fixings, USD/CNY-CNH near 6.4000.
• Norges Bank Regional Network Report: business sector activity continues to rise, the rise in prices has continued to pick up, and the rise is the strongest since August 2008.

Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

• EUR/USD: 1.0880-85 (521M), 1.0900 (437M), 1.0935-45 (1.65BN), 1.0965 (408M), 1.1100 (1.28BLN)
• Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• Debt futures pare some recovery gains, but remain on track for a turnaround Tuesday amidst a downturn in risk sentiment.
• Curves tentatively re-flatten following recent pronounced bear-steepening.
• Bonos lag ahead of looming Spanish issuance.

Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Crude contracts continue to slip amid China’s COVID measures coupled with global economic slowdown fears.
• WTI Apr extends losses under USD 100/bbl whilst Brent May hovers just above the mark.
• Precious metals move lower ahead of anticipated FOMC and BoE tightening.
• Base metals are mixed but LME copper remains under USD 10,000/t.

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NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• EU regulators have ruled out a blanket ban on banks' dividend payout and share buybacks during the Ukrainian crisis which is a more relaxed approach than what it took during the pandemic, according to FT.

DATA RECAP

• UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Jan) 3.9% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.1%); Employment Change (Jan) -12k vs. Exp. 23k (Prev. -38k)
• UK Average Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Jan) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.7%); Claimant Count Unemployment Change (Feb) -48.1k (Prev. -31.9k)
• German ZEW Current Conditions (Mar) -21.4 vs. Exp. -22.5 (Prev. -8.1); Economic Sentiment (Mar) -39.3 vs. Exp. 10.0 (Prev. 54.3)
• ZEW says a recession is becoming more and more likely. Expect stagflation in the coming months.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Biden will sign the spending bill on Tuesday at 18:15GMT/14:15EDT, according to the White House.
• A bipartisan group of lawmakers is pressing Meta (FB) on its policy toward paid advertisements from Chinese state-sponsored media, according to Axios citing a letter.

Click here for the US Early Morning Note

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks mostly declined amid the current geopolitical backdrop and COVID-19 concerns in China.
• ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in the commodity-related sectors as oil retreated around 5%.
• Nikkei 225 was shielded by currency flows and plans to end the quasi-state of emergency in Tokyo.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. extended on the prior day’s stock rout with heavy losses at the open after a jump in Chinese COVID-19 infections and with tech heavily suffering in the wake of a near-12% drop in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index. The PBoC also disappointed expectations for a 10bps cut to the 1yr MLF rate, although its CNY 200bln operation resulted in a CNY 100bln net injection and the latest Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales topped forecasts which helped briefly pare some of the losses.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 200bln via 1-year MLF with the rate maintained at 2.85% (exp. 10bps cut) for a CNY 100bln net injection of funds, while it injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.10%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3760 vs exp. 6.3649 (prev. 6.3506)
• China's NBS said economic recovery momentum from Jan-Feb is relatively good, but the external environment is still complicated and China's economic development faces many risks and challenges.
• China reported 3,602 new COVID-19 cases in the mainland for March 14th vs prev. 1,437 the day before, with 3,507 new local cases vs prev. 1,337 and 1,768 asymptomatic cases vs prev. 906.
• China locked down Langfang city near Beijing due to COVID, while Xi'an in Shaanxi stepped up control over the COVID-19 spillover and demanded residents to not leave the city unless necessary and would need negative nucleic acid test results and green codes.
• Japan is reportedly planning on ending the quasi-state of emergency in Tokyo, according to Sankei; subsequently, corroborated via Nikkei.
• RBA minutes from the March meeting reiterated the war in Ukraine is a major new source of uncertainty and the board will not raise Cash Rate until actual inflation is sustainably within 2%-3% target. It was also stated that while inflation picked up, members agreed it was too soon to conclude that it was sustainably within the target band and the board is prepared to be patient as it observes how various factors involving inflation in Australia evolve.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• Chinese Industrial Output YY (Feb) 7.5% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.3%)
• Chinese Retail Sales YY (Feb) 6.7% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 1.7%)
• Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Feb) 12.2% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.9%)