• APAC stocks gained after a strong handover from Wall St; S&P 500 +2.2%, Nasdaq 100 +3.2%.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.6% after the cash market closed lower by 0.1% yesterday.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the positions of Ukraine and Russia at negotiations sound more realistic. 
• Fitch warns that Russia would be in default if it pays USD coupons in RUB. 
• DXY just about gave up 99.00 status, EUR/USD remains on a 1.09 handle and AUD leads in the G10 space.

LOOKING AHEAD

• US Retail Sales, Export/Import Prices & Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference from Fed Chair Powell, IEA OMR, Speeches from ECB's Elderson & Panetta, Supply from Germany.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview

US TRADE

• US stocks were positive and major indices closed at session highs after growth stocks rallied and oil prices fell below USD 100/bbl.
• S&P 500 +2.2% at 4,263, Nasdaq 100 +3.2% at 13,458, Dow Jones +1.8% at 33,544, Russell 2000 +1.4% at 1,969.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Sarah Bloom Raskin withdrew from consideration as the top bank regulator at the Fed. US Senate Banking Committee Chair Brown said he will move to hold a vote on four of President Biden's nominees to the Fed, while Senate Banking Committee's top Republican Toomey called on the White House to nominate an individual focused exclusively on Fed mandates and supervision of banks.
• US Senate unanimously passed the bill that would make daylight saving time permanent beginning in November 2023.
• US Senate voted (57-40) to approve the bill to repeal CDC transportation mask mandate, although the White House had threatened that President Biden would veto the bill to overturn transportation masking requirements.
• Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) submitted for US EUA of an additional booster dose of their COVID-19 vaccine for older adults and said early studies showed an additional dose at least 4 months after the initial booster dose could restore antibody titers to peak post-3 dose levels.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

NEGOTIATIONS

• Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the positions of Ukraine and Russia at negotiations sound more realistic, but more time is still needed and noted that Ukraine must recognise it will not join NATO.
• White House said President Biden will join the NATO summit on March 24th and the European Council Summit, while reports also noted that Canadian PM Trudeau will attend the NATO meeting in Brussels next week, according to CBC

DEFENCE/MILITARY

• UK Ministry of Defence said Russia is increasingly seeking to generate additional troops to bolster and replace its personnel losses in Ukraine and that continued personnel losses will also make it difficult for Russia to secure occupied territory.
• US Senate Minority Leader McConnell said it is still under discussion how to get MiGs to Ukraine from Poland.
• Warsaw is seeking a NATO peace mission to help Ukraine, according to AFP. The Polish ruling party leader stated that it is necessary to have a peace mission that will operate on Ukrainian territory, while the Polish PM suggested they are not only fighting for Ukrainian security but also theirs.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC UPDATES

• US President Biden is to speak on Ukraine at 15:45GMT/11:45EDT today and is expected to announce an additional USD 800mln in security assistance to Ukraine, according to a White House official.
• US Senators unveiled a bipartisan bill proposing the seizure and sale of Russian assets in support of Ukraine, according to Sputnik
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen will host a task force meeting on Russian elites today.
• Japan is to revoke Russia's most favoured nation status, according to NHK.

OTHER THIRD-PARTY REMARKS/NEWS

• China's ambassador to the US denied China had prior knowledge of the Ukraine crisis, according to Global Times.

FUND/SOVEREIGN ACTION

• Fitch said if Russia's USD Eurobond coupons due on Wednesday are paid in local currency, the country would enter into a sovereign default after the 30-day grace period expires.
• JBIC head said if Russia makes payments on JPY-denominated Samurai bonds in RUB, that will likely be considered as defaulting on its debt.

OTHER

• US State Department said they have made significant progress in recent days on Iran nuclear talks and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's remarks may reflect the fact that we would not sanction Russian participation in nuclear projects under the JCPOA.
• North Korea appeared to have fired a projectile that could be a ballistic missile although the South Korean military stated the North Korean projectile failed to launch, while reports noted the missile appeared to have exploded after the launch, according to Yonhap.
• US and South Korea are mulling resuming bomber drills in case North Korea launches an ICBM, according to Yonhap sources.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks gained after Wall St closed at session highs amid a rally in growth stocks and retreat in oil prices below USD 100/bbl.
• ASX 200 was underpinned with all sectors in the green and the index led by tech following the duration bias stateside.
• Nikkei 225 gained amid expectations for Japanese PM Kishida to order the compilation of additional stimulus.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were positive amid a rebound from the tech rout and as local press suggested continued possibility of a rate cut with gains exacerbated after China State Council vowed to keep stock markets stable.
• US equity futures eked marginal gains overnight and took a breather after yesterday's advances.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.6% after the cash market closed lower by 0.1% yesterday.

FX

• DXY remained indecisive and just about gave up the 99.00 level ahead of the FOMC.
• EUR/USD marginally benefitted from the lacklustre greenback but remained beneath short term resistance at 1.1000.
• GBP/USD was stuck around 1.3050 ahead of expected BoE tightening tomorrow.
• USD/JPY retained its footing on the 118.00 handle after Japanese trade balance and exports missed forecasts.
• Antipodeans saw AUD as the largest gainer vs. the USD in the G10 FX space.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr USTs traded rangebound after yesterday’s swings through the 125.00 level, while focus turns to the FOMC.
• Bunds were lacklustre after price action was recently stalled by resistance at 162.00.
• 10yr JGBs remained afloat amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for nearly JPY 1.4tln of JGBs.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent were relatively quiet overnight and attempted to nurse some of this week's losses.
• US Energy Inventory Data Expectations (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. -1.4mln), Cushing +2.3mln, Gasoline -3.8mln (exp. -1.6mln), Distillate +0.9mln exp. -1.8mln)
• Commodity trade Trafigura seeks funding from private equity after commodities surged and were faced with margin calls in the billions of Dollars, according to Bloomberg.
• Spot gold languished after recent declines with the precious metal rangebound ahead of the FOMC.
• Copper eked marginal gains amid the constructive risk tone.
• LME said the nickel market will reopen at 08:00GMT each business day instead of 01:00GMT and will enter pre-open at 07:30GMT.

CRYPTO

• Japan's crypto authority could announce a relaxation of coin listing rules next week.
• Bitcoin eventually declined with price action choppy after it briefly reclaimed USD 40,000 level.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB's de Guindos sees no risk of recession in Eurozone and said tax breaks are to help counter surge in energy prices, while he added monetary normalisation does not mean an immediate rate hike.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3800 vs exp. 6.3802 (prev. 6.3760)
• China State Council held a financial meeting in which it vowed to keep stock markets stable and that China will adopt effective policies to handle developer risks. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He stated they will take measures to boost economy in Q1 and monetary policy should take initiatives to support the economy, while they will continue to support overseas share listings and keep appropriate growth in new loans, as well as noted that talks between China and US regulators on Chinese-listed companies in the US have made positive progress.
• China Securities Journal noted that an interest rate cut window is not completely closed and that China could still adjust rates after maintaining the MLF rate yesterday, citing experts.
• China Securities Journal stated some Chinese companies have been buying back stock amid recent declines and some disclosed Jan-Feb operating results to boost confidence.
• Chinese think tank said China should cut rates to stop the equity rout and should buy blue-chip stocks with social security funds.
• Japanese PM Kishida is expected to order the compilation of additional stimulus and Japan is considering compiling a fresh economic package after the fiscal 2022 budget is approved by parliament, according to Yomiuri and Kyodo.
• Japan is to widen local initiatives to boost tourism, according to TV Asahi.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese China House Prices YY (Feb) 2.0% (Prev. 2.3%)
• Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Feb) -668.3B vs. Exp. -112.6B (Prev. -2191.1B, Rev. -2193.5B)
• Japanese Exports YY (Feb) 19.1% vs. Exp. 21.0% (Prev. 9.6%)
• Japanese Imports YY (Feb) 34.0% vs. Exp. 28.0% (Prev. 39.6%, Rev. 38.7%)
• New Zealand Current Account QQ (Q4) -7.3B vs. Exp. -6.2B (Prev. -8.3B)
• New Zealand Current Account/GDP (Q4) -5.8% vs. Exp. -5.6% (Prev. -4.6%)