• European bourses came under pressure in early trade before seeing a mild recovery; US equity futures post mild gains.
• "There is progress in ceasefire negotiations with Russia", according to Ukrainian President Advisor cited by Sky News Arabia.
• The Russian military will submit a proposal to Russian President Putin on how best to respond to NATO beefing up its Eastern flank, according to the Kremlin
• EU is to work towards the aim of attaining around 50BCM of additional LNG from the US for EU members until at least 2030, according to a document.
• Indian Government is expected to formally announce an INR-RUB payment arrangement next week which would allow the bypassing of US sanctions, according to Sputnik.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Uni. of Michigan (Final), EU Council Meeting, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Fed's Barkin, Fed's Waller

SNAPSHOT

LOOKING AHEAD

• US Uni. of Michigan (Final), EU Council Meeting, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Fed's Barkin, Fed's Waller & ECB's de Cos
• Note: UK clocks shift from GMT to BST on Sunday 27th March, as such the London-New York time gap reverts to a five-hour difference.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

DEFENCE/MILITARY

• "There is progress in ceasefire negotiations with Russia", according to Ukrainian President Advisor cited by Sky News Arabia; expresses "cautious optimism" about talks with Russia; There is a possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough in talks with Russia
• Turkey President Erdogan says Russia and Ukraine can reach compromise on four of six issues discussed, but territorial disputes remain.
• Russian military will submit a proposal to Russian President Putin on how best to respond to NATO beefing up its Eastern flank, according to the Kremlin
• US Pentagon senior official said Russia is running out of precision-guided munitions for the war in Ukraine and that the Ukraine war makes Russia a strategic burden for China.
• US Pentagon's new strategy will describe Russia as an acute threat but one that cannot pose a long-term systemic challenge, while Russia will emerge from the Ukrainian war weaker militarily and politically.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS

• EU joint statement noted the EU demands that Russia stop committing war crimes in Ukraine and EU is prepared to close loopholes in Russian sanctions.
• US President Biden said US, EU coming together to reduce the bloc's dependency on Russian energy; we should not subsidise Russia President Putin's attack on Ukraine
• Australia announced new sanctions on Russia and Belarus including Belarusian President Lukashenko and members of his family.
• Russia is mulling selling its oil and gas for Bitcoin as sanctions intensify, according to CNBC.
• US DoJ charged four Russian government workers over hacking campaigns that targeted the global energy sector, according to FT.

OTHER NEWS/REMARKS

• Indian Government is expected to formally announce a INR-RUB payment arrangement next week which would allow the bypassing of US sanctions, according to Sputnik.

OTHER

• North Korea confirmed Thursday's launch was a 'new-type' Hwasong-17 and that its leader Kim directly guided the ICBM test, while Kim sees the new ICBM as an important deterrent against nuclear war. Kim also stated the new weapon shows the might and modernity of North Korea's strategic force and that they are preparing for a long confrontation with US imperialism. Furthermore, he said North Korea's strategic force is ready to check and contain any military attempt by the US, while he warned whoever attempts to infringe on North Korea's security will pay dearly.
• US imposed sanctions on five entities and individuals in Russia, North Korea and China for weapons proliferation, according to the State Department.
• Indian Foreign Minister said military talks with China have made progress, but issues are not sorted out, according to Reuters.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses came under pressure in early trade before seeing a mild recovery. The region ultimately remains caged within tight ranges.
• Sectors are now mostly higher with no overarching theme.
• US equity futures are flat across the board but off earlier lows. ES June found support at 4,500.

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FX

• Yen launches another recovery attempt after slumping to new multi year lows as pre-weekend and fy end positioning prompts turnaround - Usd/Jpy circa 121.50 vs almost 122.50 at one stage.
• Greenback mixed otherwise as DXY rotates around 98.500 awaiting more Fed speakers.
• Franc firm post-SNB as safe haven allure returns to an extent - Usd/Chf under 0.9300 and Eur/Chf probing 1.0200.
• Euro underpinned by decent option expiries at 1.1000 strike in wake of a downbeat German Ifo survey, but Pound flagging after weak UK retail sales data and bleak GfK consumer sentiment reading
• Cable under 1.3200 and close to Fib level, Eur/Gbp over 0.8350 and above several upside chart points.

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Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

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FIXED INCOME

• Gilts and Bunds retain recovery gains after weak UK retail sales data and a bleak German Ifo survey
• US Treasuries remain sub-par and the curve slightly steeper ahead of pending home sales final UoM survey and more Fedspeak
• BTPs firm after top end of the range Italian debt salesany week ahead stuff I can check lads?

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COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent May contracts lost ground in early European trade with several factors in play for the oil complex, although the front-months are trimming losses.
• EU is to work towards the aim of attaining around 50BCM of additional LNG from the US for EU members until at least 2030, according to a document.
• German Economy Minister hopes that by summer, Germany only imports 24% of gas from Russia; in talks to tap into the Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU) for LNG of 27GW capacity.
• Elsewhere, spot gold manages to hold USD 1,950/oz+ status with its 21 DMA also seen at the psychological mark as the yellow metal waits for the next catalyst.
• LME nickel initially soared at the open and briefly breached USD 40k/t to the upside in the 3M contract before reversing gains in what remains a volatile market

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DATA RECAP

• UK Retail Sales YY* (Feb) 7.0% vs. Exp. 7.8% (Prev. 9.1%)
• UK Retail Sales MM* (Feb) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.9%)
• German Ifo Expectations New (Mar) 85.1 vs. Exp. 92.0 (Prev. 99.2, Rev. 98.4)
• German Ifo Curr Conditions New (Mar) 97.0 vs. Exp. 96.5 (Prev. 98.6)
• German Ifo Business Climate New (Mar) 90.8 vs. Exp. 94.2 (Prev. 98.9, Rev. 98.5)

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CRYPTO

• Bitcoin holds above 44k with little action seen across the major cryptos

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mixed with the growth and tech-led momentum from the US fading overnight.
• ASX 200 was led higher by strength in mining stocks but with upside capped by a lack of fresh catalysts.
• Nikkei 225 was indecisive as JPY nursed recent losses and the 10yr yield neared the BoJ’s cap.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. weakened with tech names pressured after the US downplayed speculation of a deal on Chinese stock listings and with the PBoC's liquidity boost only providing brief support.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 100bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 70bln net injection.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3739 vs exp. 6.3639 (prev. 6.3640).

DATA RECAP

• Tokyo CPI YY (Mar) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.0%)
• Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Mar) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.5%)
• Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Mar) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -0.6%)