• European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%) have faded gains seen at the open on the final trading session of the month. 
• Futures in the US are modestly firmer as the NQ (+0.5%) marginally outpaces the ES (+0.1%)
• In FX, DXY has regained 98.00 status, EUR/USD eyes 1.11 to the downside and USD/JPY oscillates near the 122 mark
• Crude benchmarks are suffering in the wake of reports suggesting that the Biden administration is considering a 'massive' SPR release.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, PCE Price Index, OPEC+ Meeting, Speeches from Fed's Williams.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

NEGOTIATIONS/TALKS

• Ukrainian negotiator said peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will resume online on April 1st and Ukraine requested the countries' two leaders should meet in the latest round of talks, but Russia argued that additional work on a draft treaty was needed, according to Reuters.
• Russia announced a ceasefire to evacuate residents of Mariupol in which a humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, via the Russian-controlled port of Berdiansk, will begin at 10:00 am local time today.
• Russian Foreign Ministry says it would not rebuff a meeting between Foreign Minister Lavrov and his Ukraine counterpart but discussions would need to be substantive, according to Ria.

DEFENCE/MILITARY

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said they will not make any concessions and will fight for every part of their land and all their people, while a presidential adviser noted that guarantor states include the provision of military and humanitarian assistance within three days of any aggression, according to AJABreaking.
• UK GCHQ Director Fleming is to say that it looks like Russian President Putin hugely misjudged the situation in Ukraine and that "Demoralised Russian soldiers in Ukraine have accidentally shot down their own aircraft, sabotaged their kit and refused to carry out orders". Furthermore, the GCHQ chief said some Russian soldiers in Ukraine have been short of weapons and morale is low, while Russia's choice to align with China after invading Ukraine has made Beijing more powerful and Russia could ultimately be squeezed out of the equation by China in the long-term on the global stage, according to Reuters.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES

• Reported by Twitter sources including ET NOW that Russia is offering oil to India at a discount of around USD 35/bbl.
• Russia’s Gazprom is studying options of halting gas supplies to Europe amid issues of payments in roubles, according to the Kommersant newspaper, which cites sources.
• Australia is to apply a 35% tariff on all imports from Russia and Belarus, according to 10 News First.
• Russia and Belarus bonds are to be excluded from 11 S&P Dow Jones Indexes.

OTHER

• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia considers the presence of US and NATO military infrastructure in countries bordering Afghanistan as unacceptable, according to Tass.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%) kicked the final trading session of the month off on the front foot before drifting towards the unchanged mark.
• Sectors in Europe exhibit a mostly positive tilt with airline names cheering the declines in the energy space as the Energy sector suffers. The biggest laggard in the region is the retail section following a disappointing Q1 update from H&M (-8%).
• Futures in the US are modestly firmer as the NQ (+0.5%) marginally outpaces the ES (+0.1%) with inflation set to continue to remain in focus today, with the release of US PCE metrics for March; core PCE is seen rising to 5.5% Y/Y.
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• Dollar finds its feet as month, quarter and fiscal year end approach, albeit with a helping hand from others - DXY back on the 98.000 handle, narrowly.
• Commodity currencies reverse course alongside underlying prices, with crude crushed on reports of US SPR and IEA opening reserve taps - Usd/Cad rebounds through 1.2500 after sliding to new y-t-d low sub-1.2450 only yesterday.
• Yen choppy amidst residual repatriation flows and more BoJ action to cap JGB yields - Usd/Jpy circa 122.00 within a 122.45-121.35 range.
• Euro fades into 1.1200 vs Buck again as option expiries and tech resistance impinge, but Aussie may derive traction from expiry interest at 0.7500 - Eur/Usd now eyeing support at 1.1100 after tripping stops
• Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

• EUR/USD: 1.1000 (3.15BN), 1.1050-60 (634M), 1.1070-80 (1.19BN), 1.1100-05 (1.67BN), 1.1110-15 (658M), 1.1120-25 (880M), 1.1130-35 (453M), 1.1150-60 (896M), 1.1175 (501M), 1.1195-05 (2.6BN), 1.1230 (337M)
• AUD/USD: 0.7400 (500M), 0.7500 (1.73BN), 0.7550 (579M), 0.7600 (445M)

FIXED INCOME

• Bonds on track to see out extremely bearish month, quarter and end to FY on a firmer note
• Curves more even after wild swings between flattening, inversion and steepening
• BoJ ramps efforts to maintain YCC via a mostly larger JGB buying remit for Q2
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent remain firmly on the backfoot in the wake of reports suggesting that the Biden administration is considering a 'massive' SPR release.
• The news has sent May’22 WTI and Jun’22 Brent to respective lows of USD 100.53/bbl and USD 107.39/bbl to leave them a few dollars above their weekly lows of USD 98.44/bbl and USD 102.19/bbl respectively.
• US President Biden's administration is considering a 'massive' release of oil to combat inflation and may release up to 1mln bpd for months from the strategic reserve in which the total release could be 180mln bbls, according to Bloomberg.
• Goldman Sachs says a potentially large SPR release would ease the situation but wouldn't resolve the structural deficit in the oil market. Says adjustments for SPR release, Iran supply delays would lower H2 22 Brent forecast by USD 15, to USD 120/bbl - still above market forwards.
• US President Biden will deliver remarks today at 13:30EDT/18:30BST regarding the administration's actions to reduce gas prices in the US, according to the White House. It was also reported that the US mulls permitting summertime sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline to ease pump prices, according to Reuters sources.
• IEA called an emergency ministerial meeting for Friday, according to the Australian Energy Minister's office. It was later reported that IEA countries are to decide on a collective oil release, according to New Zealand's Energy Minister's office
• OPEC+ JTC replaced IEA reports with Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy as secondary sources to assess crude oil output and conformity, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• In the metals space, spot gold is contained well within recent ranges whilst copper remains subdued following disappointing Chinese PMI metrics overnight. Finally, Reuters notes that Dalian iron ore saw its best quarterly performance for five quarters amid Chinese policy support.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB's Lane says it is important to remain data-dependent and for optionality in both directions. Should ensure that policy settings are adjusted if inflation expectations are de-anchored. Should also be fully prepared to appropriately revise monetary policy settings if the energy price shock and the Russia-Ukraine war were to result in a significant deterioration in macroeconomic prospects and thereby weaken the medium-term inflation outlook.

DATA RECAP

• German Retail Sales YY Real (Feb) 7.0% vs. Exp. 6.1% (Prev. 10.3%); MM Real (Feb) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 2.0%)
• German Unemployment Chg SA (Mar) -18k vs. Exp. -20.0k (Prev. -33.0k)
• French CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Mar) 5.1% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.2%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES:

CRYPTO

• BTC is relatively flat on a USD 47k handle with price action in the crypto space contained.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded cautiously at month-end following the weak lead from the US due to increased Russia-Ukraine scepticism and as the region digested disappointing Chinese PMI data.
• ASX 200 was kept afloat by outperformance in the mining and materials industries although upside was capped as the tech sector suffered from profit-taking and with energy hit by a drop in oil prices.
• Nikkei 225 traded indecisively amid a choppy currency and after Industrial Production data missed forecasts.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued following the weak Chinese PMI data and with the mood in stocks not helped by the US SEC chief casting doubt regarding an imminent deal to avert a delisting of Chinese stocks.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 130bln net injection.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3482 vs exp. 6.3467 (prev. 6.3566)
• US SEC chief cast doubt regarding an imminent deal to avert delisting of Chinese stocks from US exchanges, according to Bloomberg. However, CSRC said it is continuing its discussions with US SEC on the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act and that both sides are willing to solve the audit dispute in which the outcome depends on the wisdom of both parties.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said sharp FX moves are not desirable, while they are closely watching how FX moves and recent JPY weakening could impact Japan's economy with a sense of urgency. Matsuno added the government will take appropriate steps on FX policies in close communication with the US and other currency authorities based on international agreements.
• BoJ Apr-Jun bond buying schedule: Raises purchases amounts. Full release here

DATA RECAP

• Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 50.2)
• Chinese NBS Non-Mfg PMI (Mar) 48.4 (Prev. 51.6)
• Chinese Composite PMI (Mar) 48.8 (Prev. 51.2)
• Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.8%)
• Australian Building Approvals (Feb) 43.5% vs. Exp. 10.0% (Prev. -27.9%, Rev. -27.1%)