• European bourses are firmer across the board returning to post-cash open levels after a choppy morning in relatively thin newsflow
• Explicitly, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%; stateside, futures are relatively in-line with this action though the NQ, +0.5%, outperforms as the yield upside pauses
• DXY set a new YTD best at 99.823 before pulling back to the unchanged mark, providing peers with some modest respite
• Fixed has rebounded after Wednesday’s cycle lows but ECB Minutes and BoE/Fed speakers loom
• WTI and Brent are consolidating near WTD lows after reserve release pressure while spot gold is capped by USD 1930/oz
• Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Minutes, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Bullard & Evans

As of 11:00BST/06:00ET

LOOKING AHEAD

• US IJC, ECB Minutes (March), Fed's Bullard & Evans, BoE's Pill
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

NEGOTIATIONS/TALKS

• Ukraine President Zelensky to meet European Commission President von der Leyen on Friday in Kyiv.
• Russia's Kremlin says US sending weapons to Ukraine is not contributing to the success of peace talks; will respond to latest sanctions.

DEFENCE/MILITARY

• UK military officials are said to be mulling plans to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine, according to The Times
• German intelligence has intercepted radio transmissions from Russian military officers, in which the murder of civilians within Bucha were discussed, via Spiegel; intercept suggests these were not random acts or those of soldiers who got out of hand; "Rather, the material reportedly suggests that the soldiers were talking about the atrocities as if they were talking about their everyday lives." via Spiegel's von Rohr.
• US is reportedly sharing intelligence with foreign banks to boost defences against cyberattacks, according to FT sources.
• Russian Defence Ministry says their missiles destroyed four fuel storage facilities in the Ukrainian cities of Mykolayiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Chuhuiv, via Reuters.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES

• UK Foreign Secretary Truss said the G7 is working to crack down on more Russian banks; working on a timetable to eliminate Russian energy imports, via Telegraph.
• Russian Ambassador to the US says US sanctions on Russian banks are a direct blow to the Russian population, according to Interfax.
• US Senate set up Thursday 10:00EDT/15:00BST to vote to sync up with the House and revoke normal trade relations with Russia, according to Fox's Pergram.
• EU's full ban on Russian coal will be pushed back by one-month until mid-August, according to Reuters sources.

OTHER

• Saudi Arabia has urged Yemen's new presidential council to start negotiations with Houthis, according to state news agency.
• Global Times commentator Hu Xijun, on House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, says "Pelosi is playing with fire, so is the US. There must be serious consequences for her visit."; subsequently, China's Foreign Ministry, on reports that US House Speaker Pelosi is to visit Taiwan, says such a visit would severely impact relations.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are firmer across the board and back in proximity to post-cash open levels after initial strength waned in choppy price action, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%
• US futures have been relatively in-fitting with European peers, though the NQ, +0.5%, is the modest outperformer as yields take a breather from their recent surge.
• China's Shanghai City is to cap the load factor of international flights by foreign airlines at 40% (prev. 75%), according to Reuters sources; effective from April 11th until month-end.
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• Greenback sets marginal new YTD best after hawkish FOMC minutes reveal tight call between 25 bp and 50 bp lift-off plus large cap balance sheet reduction, DXY up to 99.823, thus far.
• Albeit, the DXY has waned from best levels and turns flat ahead of the arrival of US participants as yields continue to pare
• Euro eyeing option expiries for support ahead of ECB minutes following loss of 1.0900 handle vs Dollar; EUR/USD down below Fib at 1.0895.
• Aussie unwinds more RBA inspired upside as trade surplus narrows on zero export balance; AUD/USD around 0.7475 vs circa 0.7661 only yesterday.
• Yen benefits from retreat in yields rather than BoJ rhetoric reaffirming ultra easy policy and merits of a weaker currency, USD/JPY capped below 124.00.
• Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

• EUR/USD: 1.0875 (900M), 1.0900-05 (2.4BN), 1.0910-15 (980M), 1.0920-25 (1.6BN), 1.0930-35: (1.7BN), 1.1000-05 (1.7BN), 1.1020-25 (2.1BN), 1.1050 (550M)
• Click here for more detail

FIXED INCOME

• Debt retracement from Wednesday's new cycle lows as FOMC minutes confirm hawkish guidance, but nothing materially new, Bunds up to 158.87 vs 156.84 yesterday, Gilts 120.91 vs sub-120.00 and 10 year T-note 121-06+ from 120-05+
• EZ periphery bonds also rebounding firmly, with French OATs digesting hefty supply and Spanish Bonos absorbing multi-tranche issuance; 10 year benchmarks above 149.50 and 147.00 at best
• JGBs lag as yield probes BoJ's YCT ceiling
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks consolidate near WTD lows after reserve release pressure; specifically, near lows of USD 95.43/bbl and USD 100.13/bbl for WTI and Brent.
• Updates elsewhere have been slim, and focused on China's Shanghai City from a demand-side perspective amidst ongoing Ukraine-Russia developments; albeit, nothing fundamentally new in terms of negotiations.
• China is to strictly control new production capacity in the oil refining industry, according to the industry ministry
• Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline resume westward, according to Gascade data.
• Spot gold/silver are contained and the yellow metal is once again capped by USD 1930/oz and LME Copper has failed to benefit from the equity pickup.
• Click here for more detail.

CENTRAL BANKS

• BoJ Board Member Noguchi said Japan's economy will likely continue to recover as pandemic and supply constraints ease; most important thing is for the BoJ to patiently sustain current monetary easing, via Reuters.
• IMF report noted that the BoJ "expressed concern" over IMF's recommendation to target short yields under YCC. IMF said the BoJ must maintain ultra-easy policy for a prolonged period. IMF cut Japan's 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 3.3%, via Reuters.
• Westpac brought forward their call for an RBA hike to June from August. Now they expect rate hikes in June (15bps), July (25bp), August (25bps), October (25bps), and November (25bps) reaching 1.25% by year’s end. Prior call was for hikes in August, October ,and December.
• ECB's Lagarde tweets that she has tested positive for COVID-19; there is no impact on the ECB’s operations.

DATA RECAP

• German Industrial Output MM* (Feb) 0.2% (Prev. 2.7%, Rev. 1.4%)
• EU Retail Sales YY (Feb) 5.0% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 7.8%, Rev. 8.4%); MM (Feb) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.2%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is pressured and towards the low-end of a range that continues to drift from the USD 45k mark.
• Meta (FB) is exploring a virtual currency for the metaverse, according to the FT.

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded lower throughout most of the session as the downbeat mood reverberated from Wall Street.
• ASX 200 was dragged lower by its tech sector following a similar sectoral performance in the West.
• Nikkei 225 was hit by losses across its energy, mining and manufacturing names.
• KOSPI conformed to the global losses whilst Samsung Electronics (-0.3%) failed to benefit from better-than-expected prelim earnings.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy and initially swung between gains and losses before stabilising in the red.
• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Prelim Q1 (KRW) Revenue 77tln (exp. 75.7tln), Operating Profit 14.1tln (exp. 13.3tln), via Reuters.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• China's Shanghai city reports 19,600 new asymptomatic COVID cases (vs prev. 16,766), according to Global Times. "Shanghai authorities will work out a white list of suppliers of essential goods including wholesale markets, distribution centers, e-commerce warehouses, central kitchens which will be exempted from lockdown", Global Times tweeted.
• China is to reportedly allow creditors of Evergrande (3333 HK) to sue locally to recoup debt, according to Bloomberg sources.
• PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 140bln net drain.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3659 vs exp. 6.3697 (prev. 6.3793).
• BoJ purchased JPY 70.1bln in ETFs, via Reuters citing a disclosure.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Trade Balance (A$) (Feb) 7.457B vs. Exp. 12B (Prev. 12.891B)
• Australian Exports (Feb) 0% (Prev. 8.0%)
• Australian Imports (Feb) 12% (Prev. -2.0%)
• Chinese FX Reserves (Monthly) (Mar) 3.188Trl vs. Exp. 3.2Trl (Prev. 3.214Trl)

APAC TRADE

Click here for the US Early Morning note.

Russia announced punitive action against Alphabet's Google (GOOG), stating that YouTube has become the main platform for spreading fake information about the Russian military campaign in Ukraine.

China regulators say Tesla (TSLA) has recalled 127,785 imported and China-made ‘Model 3’ vehicles, via Reuters.

Walmart’s (WMT) Flipkart raised IPO valuation target to between USD 60-70bln (prev. 50bln), sources cited by Reuters say; Flipkart aims for US listing in early-to-mid 2023