• European cash markets kicked off the week lower across the board with a relatively broad-based performance seen across the majors
• Twitter is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid in which a potential deal could be made as early as this week, WSJ sources
• Stateside futures are lower in tandem with the broader market sentiment, whilst the NQ is slightly more cushioned by the earlier decline in yields.
• DXY set a new 2022 peak at 101.750 amid safety flight and a sharp slide in crude alongside other commodities
• French President Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%.
• Looking ahead, highlights include a Speech from ECB’s Panetta, Earnings from Activision Blizzard, Coca-Cola

25th April 2022

SNAPSHOT

Click here for the Week Ahead preview

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

NEGOTIATIONS/TALKS

• Russian President Putin has dropped hopes for a Ukraine deal and shifted to a land-grab strategy, according to FT.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he sought talks with Russian President Putin because discussions via negotiators will not achieve the desired result, while Zelensky said that he wants to end the war, but Ukraine will abandon talks if Russia destroys “our people” in Mariupol and conducts “pseudo-referendums” to create “pseudo-republics” in occupied areas, according to Reuters. Zelensky also commented that Ukrainian forces will retake everywhere Russia occupies and key questions in negotiations with Russia are the Donbas and Crimea.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said they expect concrete things and weapons when asked about talks with US Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defence Austin in Kyiv, while Ukraine wants the US to be one of its security guarantors, according to Reuters.
• US State Department senior official said Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin met with Ukrainian President Zelensky and said US diplomats will return to Ukraine in the coming week beginning in Lviv but will eventually return to Kyiv. Furthermore, the US will provide more than USD 713mln in new foreign military financing for Ukraine and 15 other nations in central and eastern Europe, while the new funding will help Ukraine fight Russia's renewed offensive in the east and south of the country, as well as transition to more advanced weapons and air defence systems, according to Reuters.
• Ukrainian presidential adviser Arestovych said Russia was unsuccessful in new attempts to storm several towns in Ukraine’s Luhansk region and that Ukraine offered Russia a special round of talks to be held in Mariupol to discuss an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian corridors in Mariupol, as well as freeing or swapping all Ukrainian forces trapped there for Russian POWs.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he spoke with Turkish President Erdogan ahead of the latter’s talks with Russian President Putin and stressed the need for an evacuation of Mariupol civilians and exchange of soldiers at Azovstal. Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey is prepared to provide all assistance during the negotiation process and that the evacuation of the wounded and civilians in Mariupol must be ensured, according to Reuters.

DEFENCE/MILITARY

• Ukrainian presidential advisor Podolyak urged Russia to agree to a faster Easter truce in Mariupol, while he noted Russia is continuously attacking Mariupol’s Azovstal and is shelling with heavy air bombs and artillery, according to Reuters.
• Russia said it will open a humanitarian corridor for the Azovstal plant in Mariupol for civilians to lead on Monday, via ifx
• Russian Defence Ministry official accused the US of preparing provocations to accuse Russia of using biological, chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine in response to the successes of the Russian military operation, according to TASS.
• UK PM Johnson confirmed in a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky that the UK is providing more defensive military assistance which includes protected mobility vehicles, drones and anti-tank weapons, according to Reuters.
• UK Ministry of Defence said Ukraine repelled numerous Russian assaults along the line of contact in Donbas during the past week and that Ukrainian resistance has been strong despite Russia making some territorial gains. UK Ministry of Defence also said Russia is planning a staged referendum in the southern Ukraine city of Kherson aimed at justifying its occupation with the city key to Russia's objective of establishing a land bridge to Crimea and dominating southern Ukraine.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said they have not heard about preparations for holding a referendum in Kherson Province, according to Al Jazeera, via Al Jazeera

ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES

• US is said to have withheld personal sanctions against Russian President Putin’s alleged girlfriend Alina Kabaeva who is the mother of at least three of his children, as it viewed this as an escalatory move but will keep the option on the table with the action saved for maximum pressure, according to WSJ.
• EU is preparing “smart sanctions” against Russian oil imports designed to minimise economic damage to the European economy, according to The Times citing a senior Brussels official.
• EU's Borrell said there is insufficient support by EU member states for a complete embargo or punitive tariffs on Russian energy imports, according to Die Welt.

FUND/PAYMENTS/OTHER

• Russia is switching to national currency payments with Azerbaijan and Armenia as part of measures to minimise risks from western sanctions, according to the Foreign Ministry cited by Sputnik.

OTHER

• Russia said it is to deploy its first unit of nuclear-capable Sarmat missiles by Autumn, according to Tass.
• Turkey closed its airspace to Russian planes flying to Syria, according to Foreign Minister Cavusoglu.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a foreign ship carrying 200k litres of smuggled fuel, according to Fars.
• Israeli military announced a projectile fired from Lebanon at Israel hit an open area, while Israel later fired at targets in Lebanon, according to Reuters.
• Yemeni Houthis made a new offer to the UN including the release of 200 prisoners from each of the warring sides before Eid Al-Fitr, according to Al-Masirah TV.
• Iranian Foreign Minister says "Currently, we are not at a point where we can negotiate with Saudi Arabia at a political level.", according to Tehran Times.
• Iranian Foreign Minister says Iran and EU agreed the need for a meeting regarding the Iranian Nuclear Deal', via Tehran Times.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European cash markets kicked off the week lower across the board with a relatively broad-based performance seen across the majors.
• Sectors are lower across the board with a clear defensive tilt: Energy and Basic Resources sit at the bottom of the bunch amid hefty downside in underlying commodities
• Stateside futures are lower in tandem with the broader market sentiment, whilst the NQ is slightly more cushioned by the earlier decline in yields.
• Twitter is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid and be more receptive to a deal with the sides meeting on Sunday to discuss the proposal. It was separately reported that Twitter is facing increasing shareholder pressure to negotiate with Elon Musk in his takeover bid and that the Co. is in talks with Elon Musk in which a potential deal could be made as early as this week, according to WSJ.
• Twitter (+0.7% pre-market) is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk's bid, via WSJ.

Click here for more detail.

FX

• DXY sets new 2022 peak at 101.750 amid safety flight and sharp slide in crude alongside other commodities.
• Yen back in favour as risk sentiment sours irrespective of denials about joint Japanese and US intervention discussion - Usd/Jpy towards base of 128.87-127.89 range.
• Aussie underperforms on Anzac Day due to steep decline in copper and iron ore - Aud/Usd tests 0.7150 and Aud/Nzd cross under 1.0850 vs 1.0940 at one stage overnight.
• Yuan extends depreciation as Covid spreads to a district in Beijing and PBoC continues to lower Cny midpoint reference rate - Usd/Cnh just shy of 6.6000, Usd/Cny eyeing 6.5650.
• Euro averts 1.0700 test, narrowly, and pares more losses after surprisingly upbeat Ifo survey, on the surface - Eur/Usd rebounds to circa 1.0750, but still well below Macron victory high.
• Pound loses Fib support on the way through 1.2800 and sub-8400 vs Dollar and Euro respectively.

Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• Debt futures firm as risk appetite wanes, but bonds fade beyond 154.50 in Bunds, 119.00 in Gilts and 119-25 in the 10 year T-note.
• Core EZ bonds lose momentum after German Ifo survey beats and irrespective of less encouraging accompanying statements.
• French OATs off peak within 147.38-146.28 range posted on confirmation of Macron defeating Le Pen to retain Presidency.
• European Commission sells EUR 2.499bln (exp. EUR 2.500bln) 0.4% 2037 NGEU; b/c 2.05x (prev. 1.49x), average yield 1.626% (prev. 0.375%).

Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent June contacts have continued to decline since the resumption of futures trading.
• Spot gold has been caged to a near-USD 5/oz range since the European open as the impact of a firming Buck negated the effects of lower yields at the time.
• Base metalss are in a sea of red as China's lockdown woes hit the demand side of the equation – with LME aluminium and zinc the laggards at the time of writing.

Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• German government raises 2022 CPI forecast to 6.1% (vs 3.3% in prior forecast), according to a document cited by Reuters; sees 2023 CPI at 2.8%, via Reuters.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

• German Ifo Expectations New (Apr) 86.7 vs. Exp. 83.5 (Prev. 85.1, Rev. 84.9)
• German Ifo Curr Conditions New (Apr) 97.2 vs. Exp. 95.8 (Prev. 97.0, Rev. 97.1)
• German Ifo Business Climate New (Apr) 91.8 vs. Exp. 89.1 (Prev. 90.8)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• French President Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%, while Le Pen conceded defeat after the initial projections, according to Reuters and Sky News.
• ECB President Lagarde commented that interest rate hikes will not lower energy prices, according to Barron’s.
• ECB policymakers are said to be keen to finish bond purchases as soon as possible and possibly hike rates in July but no later than August, while they are leaning towards two rate moves this year with three also a possibility, according to Reuters sources. However, an ECB spokesperson declined to comment on the timing of ending bond purchases and potential interest rate increases.
• The EU is said to prepare the creation of a new trade and tech council with India, according to FT sources. The new forum could be unveiled on Monday during the European Commission President’s visit to India.
• The EU will aggressively police online content from Big Tech platforms such as Google (GOOG) and Meta’s Facebook (FB), according to the FT

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin continued to tumble alongside the broader crypto market.
• Coinbase (COIN) has resolved an issue where customers had troubles accessing accounts.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded negatively after last Friday's stock rout on Wall Street with risk sentiment hampered by holiday closures, China's COVID-19 woes and as participants brace for a busy week of key earnings releases.
• Nikkei 225 shed around 500 points with sentiment not helped by several earnings guidance downgrades and with Nissan shares were hit as alliance partner Renault mulls selling a partial stake in the Japanese automaker.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed on the COVID situation after daily deaths in Shanghai rose again and with the city to conduct another round of mass testing, while Beijing also scrambles to contain an outbreak with its Chaoyang district to require residents and workers to undergo three COVID-19 tests this week.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 10bln through 7-day reverse repos on Sunday with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 10bln net injection, while it injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.4909 vs exp. 6.4873 (prev. 6.4596)
• PBoC will hold a meeting with 12 property firms regarding the disposal of non-performing assets, according to Re
• Some Chinese state banks including Bank of China (3988 HK) and Bank of Communications (3328 HK) will reduce their deposit rate ceilings on Monday, according to Reuters sources.
• Shanghai reported 2,472 (prev. 1,401) new symptomatic cases and 16,983 (prev. 19,657) new asymptomatic cases and 51 (prev. 39) new COVID-19 related deaths for April 24th. Beijing City reports 29 cases on April 25th (vs 22 reportedly on April 24th).
• Beijing’s Chaoyang district will require residents and workers to undergo three COVID tests this week, while Beijing ordered residents in a specific COVID-affected area in Chaoyang not to leave the area, according to Reuters.
• Foxconn (2354 TT) suspended output at two factories in China's eastern city of Kunshan which is said to put Apple's (AAPL) China supply chain on edge, according to SCMP.
• Japanese Finance Ministry spokesman denied Finance Minister Suzuki and Treasury Secretary Yellen discussed a joint currency intervention, according to Reuters.