• European equities remain on the front foot on the last trading day of the month
• State-side futures were dented overnight amid after-hours losses in Amazon and Apple
• Dollar bulls book profits into month end and DXY pulls back further from near 104.000 peak
• CBR opted for a bigger-than-forecast 300bp rate cut, and Kremlin said it is mulling Gold peg
• Looking ahead, highlights include US March PCE, US Chicago PMI, earnings from AbbVie, Bristol-Myers and Colgate-Palmolive

29th April 2022

SNAPSHOT

LOOKING AHEAD

US March PCE, US Chicago PMI

Earnings AbbVie, Bristol-Myers and Colgate-Palmolive

Click here for the Week Ahead preview

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

NEGOTIATIONS/TALKS

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Kyiv is ready for immediate negotiations for evacuation from the Azovstal plant, according to Sputnik.

DEFENCE/MILITARY

• Ukrainian presidential aide said they have suffered serious losses but Russian losses are much worse, while the aide stated the military situation is difficult but controllable, according to Reuters.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES

• Germany and Greece are reportedly set to provide additional gas for Poland and Bulgaria, according to FT.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European equities remained on the front foot on the last trading day of the month.
• In terms of sectors, tech currently stands as the clear outperformer amid the sectoral gains on Wall Street yesterday alongside the surge in Chinese Tech. Overall, sectors have a slight anti-defensive bias
• State-side futures were dented overnight amid after-hours losses in Amazon (-9% pre-market) and Apple (-2.4% pre-market) following disappointing guidance and inflationary headwinds. Thus, the NQ (-0.8%) currently lags.

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FX

• Dollar bulls book profits into month end and DXY pulls back further from near 104.000 peak in the process.
• High betas, cyclical and activity currencies grab the chance to recoup losses vs Buck.
• Euro rebounds amidst more hot Eurozone inflation data, but could be hampered by big option expiries.
• Yuan regroups as Chinese Government promises stimulus measures and aid for sectors of the economy suffering worst covid contagion
• Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cuts key rate by 300bps to 14.00% (exp. 15.00%); sees key rate in 12.5-14.00% range this year (prev. 9.0-11.0%).
• Russia's Kremlin, when asked about the idea of pegging the RUB to gold prices, says it is under discussion, according to Reuters.

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Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

• EUR/USD: 1.0565-75 (2.2BN),

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FIXED INCOME

• Bonds suffer another inflation setback after early EU rebound.
• Bunds some 100 ticks down from 154.69 peak, Gilts flattish between 119.34-118.73 parameters and 10 year T-note nearer 119-04+ low than 19-24 high.
• BTPs weak after so-so reception at end of month Italian auctions - US PCE data also adds to caution as Fed's preferred measure of inflation.

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COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent front-month futures have been gaining during the European morning.
• Saudi Aramco is expected to lower its official selling prices for June-loading crudes, market sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights; following tepid Asian demand fundamentals, with the OSP differentials retreating from the record highs. (S&PGlobal)
• North Sea Crude oil grades underpinning dated Brent Benchmark to average 540k BPD in June (prev. 755k BPD), according to programmes.
• Indian firms are reportedly seeking oil import deals with Russia, according to sources cited by Reuters; three refiners looking to buy up to 16mln bbl per month of oil from Russia.
• Spot gold has been rising in tandem with a pullback in the Buck but ahead of the US March PCE metric.
• Overnight, base metals saw gains in Shanghai, with some also citing a demand front-load ahead of the Chinese Labour Day.

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NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• SNB's Jordan says higher inflation has not justified an increase in interest rates, views Swiss inflation as moderate and likely to fall in the foreseeable future. SNB does not react mechanically to every bout of upward pressure on CHF, and higher overseas inflation means the Swiss economy can handle firmer CHF, via Reuters.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

• EU GDP Flash Prelim QQ (Q1) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
• EU GDP Flash Prelim YY (Q1) 5.0% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.6%, Rev. 4.7%)
• EU HICP Flash YY (Apr) 7.5% vs. Exp. 7.5% (Prev. 7.4%)
• EU HICP-X F&E Flash YY (Apr) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.2%)
• EU HICP-X Food, Energy, Alcohol & Tobacco Flash YY (Apr) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 2.9%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Apple Inc (AAPL) - Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 1.52 (exp. 1.43), Revenue 97.28bln (exp. 93.89bln); authorised additional 90bln of share buybacks. Click here for the full release. Apple (AAPL) sees a USD 4bln-8bln hit from COVID and supply chain for the June quarter, according to AFP. (Newswires) Shares -2.4% pre-market
• Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) - Q1 2022 (USD): EPS -7.56 (exp. 8.36), Revenue 116.4bln (exp. 116.3bln). Sees Q2 net sales USD 116.0bln-121.0bln (exp. 125.01bln). Click here for the full release. (Newswires) Shares -8.5% pre-market
• Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk files to sell around 2.26mln of Tesla shares and an additional sale of 889.8mln shares. Musk says no further Tesla sales planned after today. (Newswires)

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin prices are slightly softer and briefly retreated beneath the 39,500 level.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks gained after the firm lead from the US where stocks looked past the surprise contraction in US GDP, but with advances in the region capped heading into month-end and next week's mass closures.
• ASX 200 was firmer as tech mirrored the outperformance of the Nasdaq stateside and with gold miners following closely behind after the precious metal reclaimed the psychological USD 1900/oz level.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially indecisive ahead of next week’s holiday closures including in the mainland where markets will remain closed through to Wednesday, while participants also digested the surprise contraction in Hong Kong’s exports and imports data. However, a surge in Hong Kong tech stocks and policy pledges by China's Politburo helped shake off the indecision.
• Nikkei 225 was closed for Showa Day.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral position.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.6177 vs exp. 6.6127 (prev. 6.5628)
• China Politburo said China's economy faces rising uncertainties and that challenges created by COVID and the Ukraine crisis are increasing, but it will strive to achieve social and economic targets. China will implement a package of policies to support COVID affected industries and small firms, as well as rollout measures to support healthy development of the platform economy, while it will also step up macro policy adjustments to stabilise the economy and examine more policy tools, according to Reuters.
• China and the US are reportedly negotiating on site auditing checks as delistings loom, according to Bloomberg.
• China's National Health Commission said China will not budge from its commitment to COVID zero but will instead optimise its response, while it was also noted that China needs to react more forcefully and quickly to prevent further outbreaks, according to Reuters.
• China and US discuss operation details of audit deal, according to Reuters sources. (Newswires)
• China to end regulatory storm over Big Tech and give sector bigger role in boosting slowing economy, SCMP sources said.