• European bourses and US futures spent much of the morning under modest pressure, with the US in particular fairly rangebound pre-earnings & Wednesday's FOMC.
• However, further pressure has been seen in wake of the most recent Kremlin-related commentary, with the Nord Stream 1 turbine yet to be installed.
• Dutch TTF & Crude benchmarks bid ahead of further Nord Stream 1 curtailments, though, the upside waned as the EU agrees on an emergency energy deal for the winter
• DXY continues to climb amid the above newsflow/narrative, pressuring peers while core debt climbs and US yields flatten modestly.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Monthly Home Prices, US Consumer Confidence, US Richmond Fed, IMF Short-term Forecasts, the EU's Energy Summit pressers and, supply from the US.
• Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, McDonald's, Visa, UPS, LVMH, Michelin, UniCredit, and many more.

As of 11:20BST/06:20ET

LOOKING AHEAD

• US Monthly Home Prices, US Consumer Confidence, US Richmond Fed, IMF Short-term Forecasts, the EU's Energy Summit pressers and, supply from the US.
• Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, McDonald's, Visa, UPS, LVMH, Michelin, UniCredit, and many more.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview

GEOPOLITICS

• EU member states have agreed an emergency plan to reduce the bloc's gas consumption in a bid to soften the impact of a potential total stoppage in Russian gas supplies, DPA has learned.
• Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister says we will stop grain exports if we detect any Russian threats in the Black Sea, via Al Jazeera.
• Kremlin says turbine for Nord Stream 1 pipeline is on its way after maintenance, still not been installed, via Reuters.
• Explosions were reported in the countryside of Odessa province, southern Ukraine, according to an Al Jazeera correspondent.

EUROPEAN TRADE

CENTRAL BANKS

• RBNZ Governor Orr says in addition to remit review, RBNZ will also review recent performance in conducting monetary policy; will assess inflation and employment outcomes relative to targets, via Reuters.
• CNB's Frait says policy is already quite restrictive, won't rule out a hike now or in the near time. Temporary FX interventions are normal in situations of shock to balance of payments, via Reuters.

EQUITIES

• European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, in what has been a limited session of newsflow ahead of the EU energy update and US earnings; though, strength in commodities is lifting the FTSE 100 +0.5%.
• However, further pressure has been seen in wake of most recent Kremlin related commentary, with the Nord Stream 1 turbine yet to be installed.
• Stateside, US futures are dented to the tune of crica. 5/10s of a percent; but, fairly rangebound (ex-above Kremlin related moves) overall pre-earnings and Wednesday's FOMC.
• United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 3.35 (exp. 3.16), Revenue 24.8bln (exp. 24.62bln)
• General Motors Co (GM) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 1.14 (exp. 1.30), Revenue 35.8bln (exp. 34.52bln). FY EPS view 6.50-7.50 (exp. 6.89).
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• Aussie fades after probing Fib resistance vs Greenback and Loonie following oil powered rise to best levels since mid-June, AUD/USD back under 0.6950 from 0.6983, USD/CAD above 1.2880 from sub-1.2820.
• Dollar regains poise otherwise in choppy, cautious trade pre-FOMC, DXY rebounds firmly from 106.190 surpassing Monday high of 106.890 to 107.10+.
• Yen and Franc find some traction from pronounced bounce in bonds and reversion to bull-flattening, USD/CHF and USD/JPY hold below/above 0.9650 and 136.50 respectively.
• Euro undermined by ongoing Russian gas supply jitters ahead of Extraordinary Energy Summit, EUR/USD retreats from 1.0250 to circa 1.0140.
• Pound pulls up after narrowly missing 1.2100 vs Buck, Cable now below 1.2000, albeit still relatively comfortably above a series of recent descending lows.
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Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

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FIXED INCOME

• Bonds back in bull-flattening mode as Bunds front run latest leg higher.
• 10 year German benchmark reaches 155.90 and peaks not seen since late May, while yield breaches 1% with more conviction.
• Gilts and T-notes lag within 117-6935 and 120-04/119-24 respective ranges ahead of the Fed tomorrow and BoE next week.
• BTPs off lest levels and lag periphery peers amidst short term and linker supply.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Dutch TTF continues to lift with the August contract in proximity to EUR 200 as Nord Stream 1 is set to be curtailed tomorrow; however, the EU has agreed on a deal to reduce gas use.
• Crude benchmarks are bid and drawing impetus from the referenced factors and EU divisions, though the magnitude of the move is more modest in nature vs TTF.
• EU nations agree to reduce gas use for next winter.; only Hungary voted against approval of mandatory gas rationing if Russia shuts off the taps, France24 reports. Reminder, press conferences are expected at 12:30BST/07:30ET and 15:00BST/10:00ET.
• EU energy chief Simson says Europe has to be prepared for supply cuts from Russia at any moment, expects to have a deal today in curbing gas demand.
• Libyan oil minister says oil production is 1.1mln BPD.
• China is to lower retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 300 and CNY 290/tonne respectively as of July 27th.
• Spot gold is little changed overall and moving at the whim of the USD while base metals remain bid in a continuation of APAC trade.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Walmart (WMT) lowered its profit outlook for Q2 and FY23 primarily due to pricing actions aimed to improve inventory levels. Net sales include currency headwinds of roughly USD 1bln in Q2. Co. Expects a USD 1.8bln headwind in H2 '22. Walmart (WMT) shares fell over 9%, Amazon (AMZN) and Target (TGT) were also hit.
• Amazon (AMZN) to raise Prime subscription prices across Europe effective September 15th, according to a spokesman; price hike to be by 20% or more a year, according to Reuters. Prices will increase by 30% in Germany, 20% in the UK, and between 39-43% in Spain, Italy and France, according to Reuters.
• Click here for the US Early Morning note.

CRYPTO

• Coinbase (COIN) faces SEC probe over crypto listings, according to Bloomberg sources.
• US House lawmakers are reportedly delaying consideration of a bipartisan bill to regulate stablecoins, according to WSJ citing sources, pushing back consideration of the measure until after Congress’ August break.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks took their cue from Wall Street and eventually traded mostly higher, albeit some with mild gains, after seeing mixed trade in the early hours until the Chinese open.
• ASX 200 was supported by its energy and mining sectors as underlying oil and metals prices rose,
• Nikkei 225 moved back toward the 27.5k mark to the downside amid currency dynamics whilst the KOSPI was kept afloat after Q2 GDP topped expectations.
• Hang Seng overlooked reports that Hong Kong may have to downgrade its annual growth forecast and surged amid a boost from Alibaba rising almost 4% as it plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong, which would make it eligible for the Stock Connect programme and allow mainland Chinese investors to trade Co. shares, in turn helping increase liquidity.
• Shanghai Comp posted modest gains, but the upside was capped as Shanghai added 10 high and medium-risk areas subject to lockdown.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• Shanghai adds 10 high and medium-risk areas subject to lockdown, according to Bloomberg.
• Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) is pursuing a primary listing on the Hong Kong exchange, expected to occur before the end of 2022; Co. will become a dual primary listed Co. on HKEX and NYSE.
• Hong Kong may have to downgrade its annual growth forecast in August for the second time in three months, according to SCMP citing the finance chief.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7483 vs exp. 6.7490 (prev. 6. 7543).
• PBoC injected CNY 5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate of 2.10% for a net drain of CNY 2bln

DATA RECAP

• South Korean GDP Growth QQ Advance (Q2) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%); YY Advance (Q2) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 3.0%)