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US Market Open: Wednesday's BoE-induced 'recovery' stalls, multiple speakers due amidst inflation data

  • European stocks are experiencing another bleak session thus far as the overnight gains in futures dissipated heading into the cash open.
  • USD has regained some poise after a mid-week pullback; though, the DXY remains off earlier 113.79 highs
  • Yuan has derived pronounced support from Reuters reports that China's state banks have been told to stock up for intervention offshore
  • UK PM Truss stuck to the Chancellor's mini-Budget, saying it is the correct plan.
  • Core debt benchmarks are pressured across the board in a modest pullback of the pronounced BoE-induced 'recovery' seen yesterday
  • WTI and Brent front-month futures have been trimming losses throughout the European morning; LME metals buoyed by BBG sources
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Prelim.), US PCE Prices Final, IJC, Banxico Policy Announcement. Speeches from ECB's Lane & de Cos, BoEs Ramsden, Pill, Tenreyro, Fed's Bullard & Mester.

As of 11:20BST/06:20ET

LOOKING AHEAD

  • German HICP (Prelim.), US PCE Prices Final, IJC, Banxico Policy Announcement. Speeches from ECB's Lane & de Cos, BoEs Ramsden, Pill, Tenreyro, Fed's Bullard & Mester.

CENTRAL BANKS

  • ECB's Simkus says his choice of hike for October is 75bp, says 50bp would be the minimum, via Bloomberg. A 100bp hike would be too much at this point.
  • ECB's Centeno says decisions must be measured and balanced, still far from the neutral rate, via Bloomberg.
  • ECB's Rehn says prospect of recession in Euro Area is likely.
  • ECB's Vasle says current hike pace is "appropriate" response to inflation; expects to raise rates at the next several meetings.
  • ECB's de Cos says so far there is no clear evidence of de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Based on current models, median terminal rate value is at 2.25-2.5% (significant uncertainty).
  • ECB's Kazaks says 75bp will likely be appropriate for October, via Bloomberg.
  • PBoC says they are to add more loans to ensure property delivery when required, via Reuters.
  • China's state banks have reportedly been told to stock up for Yuan intervention offshore, according to Reuters sources, in a bid to defend the weakening Yuan.. State banks were asked to asked offshore branches, such as those in Hong Kong, New York and London, to review holding of the CNH to ensure dollar reserves are ready to be deployed.
  • RBI likely selling USD via state-run banks around 81.92-81.93 levels, according to traders cited by Reuters
  • NBH hikes one-week deposit rate by 125bp, to 13.00%.
  • Turkish President Erdogan says interest rates need to come down further; CBRT needs to lower rates at the next meeting, via Reuters.

GEOPOLITICS

  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said North Korea's multiple missile launches are unacceptable and Japan will maintain close contact with allies including the US to monitor and deal with North Korea, according to Reuters.
  • Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey will increase its military presence in northern Cyprus, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • EU Official expects an agreement on the next Russian sanctions package, or at least major parts of this, before the EU Summit next week. Expects the discussion to focus on referendums, possible annexation, nuclear threat and Nord Stream.
  • Russian State Duma representatives have received invitations to the Kremlin for Friday, September 30th at 13:00BST, via Ria.
  • Russian Kremlin says the ceremony on incorporating new territories will occur on Friday, September 30th - President Putin will speak.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European stocks are experiencing another bleak session thus far as the overnight gains in futures dissipated heading into the cash open.
  • Sectors are in a sea of red with no clear theme. Autos kicked off the day as the outperformer as the Porsche AG IPO occurred at a premium to the guided price of EUR 82.50/shr.
  • US equity futures are also trading with losses across the board, with relatively broad-based downside of 1.3-1.5% seen across the front-month contracts.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • USD has regained some poise after a mid-week pullback; though, the DXY remains off earlier 113.79 highs and thus shy of the YTD/WTD peak at 114.78.
  • Yuan has derived pronounced support from Reuters reports that China's state banks have been told to stock up for intervention offshore, sending USD/CNH to 7.1437 from circa. 7.20 pre-release.
  • Cable managed to 'recover' to a test of 1.09 but failed to breach the level with multiple BoE speakers in focus later.
  • EUR/USD moving at the whim of broader USD action and failing to glean any real traction from multiple speakers and German state/Spanish mainland CPI data.
  • Click here for more detail.
  • Click here for OpEx for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

  • Core benchmarks are pressured across the board in a modest pullback of the pronounced BoE-induced 'recovery' seen yesterday, with numerous speakers due and the second BoE operation.
  • Specifically, Bund lies towards the bottom of a 200 tick range while Gilts are holding onto the 95.00 handle with the associated yield lifting further above 4.0%.
  • Stateside, USTs are similarly at the lower-end of parameters ahead of data and numerous speakers while the curve flattens further.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent front-month futures have been trimming losses throughout the European morning.
  • Over to metals, the complex was initially weighed on by the broader USD strength, with spot gold trading on either side of USD 1,650/oz.
  • Elsewhere, 3M LME copper has trimmed its earlier upside as the USD pulled back, with the contract now inching closer to USD 7,500/t to the upside, whilst aluminium spiked after Bloomberg sources suggested the LME is to consult on a potential ban of Russian metals.
  • OPEC+ commenced discussions around an output cut for the October 5th meeting, via Reuters citing OPEC source. One source said a cut is "likely".
  • RBC sees a 'significant chance' of substantial OPEC+ supply cut and said OPEC+ may cut by 500k-1mln bpd at the October 5th meeting.
  • Senior EU official says ministers should hopefully adopt windfall profit levies on energy firms on Friday; ministers will discuss different options for a gas price cap tomorrow, via Reuters. Ministers will also discuss whether measures to cut gas demand further are required.
  • EU Commission will not put a proposal to cap gas prices on the table for tomorrow's emergency meeting of energy ministers, according to a working document cited by journalist Keating.
  • LME to consult on a potential ban of Russian metals, according to Bloomberg sources.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK PM Truss says the fiscal statement (i.e. mini-Budget) is the correct plan.
  • UK Chief Secretary to the Treasury says the growth plan will get the economy growing, one of the reasons growth plans included tax cuts was to alleviate the household burden. BoE intervention has had the desired effect. Disagrees with the IMF's remarks.
  • US President Biden's administration was reportedly alarmed by the market turmoil caused by the UK's economic program and is seeking ways to encourage PM Truss's team to dial back its tax cuts, according to Bloomberg.
  • France is reportedly considering proposals for up to two hour power cuts for parts of the country on a rotating basis, via Reuters sources; additionally, telecom names have highlighted power issues with the German and Swedish gov'ts.
  • German Network Regulator says recent gas consumption by households is too high to remain sustainable, via Reuters; gas savings of 20% are required to avoid an emergency.
  • German gov't could make a "low three-digit billion amount" available for the gas price break, discussion of EUR 150-200bln, via Handelsblatt citing gov't circles; will reportedly be announced today.

DATA RECAP

  • German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Sep) 10.1% (Prev. 8.1%); MM (Sep) 1.8% (Prev. 0.3%)
  • EU Consumer Confidence Final (Sep) -28.8 vs. Exp. -28.8 (Prev. -28.8)
  • EU Selling Price Expectations (Sep) 50.3 (Prev. 43.7, Rev. 44.6); Inflation Expectations (Sep) 41.3 (Prev. 36.8, Rev. 37.0)

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • White House said US President Biden's economic team reported that the US economy remains resilient in the face of global challenges, while President Biden directed his economic team to stay in touch with allies and key market actors, as well as brief him regularly on global financial and energy markets, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is under modest pressure but lies within narrow ranges of less than USD 500 at present and well within recent parameters as such.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks traded higher as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St where risk sentiment was buoyed and yields retreated following the BoE's announcement to resume Gilt purchases.
  • ASX 200 outperformed in which the commodity-related sectors led the broad advances across industries following the recent upside in energy and metal prices, while firm monthly CPI data did little to dent risk sentiment.
  • Nikkei 225 was also positive but with gains initially capped as more than half of the stocks traded ex-dividend.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also firmer with the Hong Kong benchmark spearheaded by tech and energy stocks, while the mainland also digested reports that the PBoC is setting up a more than CNY 200bln re-lending facility quota for equipment upgrades which aims to expand market demand in the manufacturing sector.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC injected CNY 105bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injects CNY 77bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 180bln net injection.
  • Chinese President Xi told Japanese PM Kishida that they attach great importance to the development of China-Japan relations and he is willing to work with Kishida to build relations, while Kishida told Xi that bilateral relations are currently facing many issues and challenges but he hopes to build constructive and stable relations to boost peace and prosperity, in messages to mark 50 years of diplomatic relations.

NOTABLE APAC DATA

  • Australian Monthly CPI YY (Aug) 6.8% (Prev. 7.0%)
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Sep) -36.7% (Prev. -47.8%)
  • New Zealand ANZ Own Activity (Sep) -1.8% (Prev. -4.0%)
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