• European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, with the region digesting earnings and largely just awaiting the ECB
• FTSE 100 is the relative outperformer post-Shell while US futures are mixed & META is hampered after earnings, -20% pre-market
• DXY tops 110.00 vs bottom near 109.500 with EUR and GBP both fading from initial peaks in turn
• Core debt has slipped from a brief mid-week recovery with yields elevated as such, BTP-Bund spread remains around 220bp pre-ECB
• A contained session for the commodity space with markets generally tentative and mixed awaiting the afternoon’s risk events
• Looking ahead, highlights include the ECB Announcement and President Lagarde's Press Conference, US Quarterly PCE Advance, GDP Advance and Durable Goods, supply from the US. Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Intel, Caterpillar, McDonalds, Gilead.

As of 10:55BST/05:55ET

LOOKING AHEAD

• ECB Announcement and President Lagarde's Press Conference, US Quarterly PCE Advance, GDP Advance and Durable Goods, supply from the US.
• Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Intel, Caterpillar, McDonalds, Gilead.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, with the region digesting earnings and largely just awaiting the ECB; FTSE 100 +0.3% outperforms post-Shell +3.5%.
• Sectors are predominantly in the red though, in-fitting with bourses, Energy outperforms after Shell & Total while Tech names lag following Meta and STMicroelectronics.
• Stateside, futures are mixed and yet to develop much traction either side of the unchanged mark, NQ -0.3% lags more corporate updates and as yields pick up.
• Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q3 2022 (USD): EPS 1.64 (exp. 1.88), Revenue 27.71bln (exp. 27.38bln). Facebook DAUs 1.98bln (exp. 1.86bln). Facebook MAUs 2.96bln (exp. 2.97bln). META average price per ad -18% (exp. -15.3%). Co. said it faces near-term challenges on revenue, and sees reality labs op losses in 2023 significantly higher. CFO said revenue from large advertisers remain challenged, while revenue among smaller advertisers remain more resilient. -20% in the pre-market
• Ford Motor Co (F) Q3 2022 (USD): EPS -0.21 (exp. 0.27), Revenue 39.4bln (exp. 36.25bln); Raises FY22 FCF outlook to 9.5-10bln (prev. 5.5-6.5bln); sees FY adj. EBIT around USD 11.5bln (prev. 11.5-12.5bln). -2% in the pre-market
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• Buck stops the rot as rival currencies retreat ahead of risk events, including ECB and top tier US data, DXY tops 110.00 vs bottom near 109.500.
• Euro and Sterling fade just shy of 1.0100 and 1.1650 respectively and in proximity to key technical levels.
• Aussie undermined by a sharp fall in iron ore and renewed Yuan weakness; AUD/USD down from 0.6500+ peak and eyeing 0.6450, USD/CNH up from circa 7.1640 to 7.2630 or so.
• Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

• EUR/USD: 0.9800 (1.6BN), 0.9850 (2.1BN), 1.0000 (2.4BN), 1.0025 (648M), 1.0040 (733M)
• Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• Bonds wane after forging fresh midweek recovery peaks.
• Bunds reverse around one full point from just over 139.00 pre-ECB.
• T-note turn tail from 111-05+ to 110-21+ as 4% cash yield holds ahead of US GDP, IJC and Durable Goods.
• Gilts buck trend and retest 102.000 again amidst reports that UK PM Sunak may hike taxes and cut spending to make budget savings.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• A contained session for the commodity space with markets generally tentative and mixed awaiting the afternoon’s risk events of which the ECB takes centre stage.
• Crude benchmarks are essentially unchanged on the session and have slipped marginally from best levels of USD 88.50/bbl and USD 96.20/bbl for WTI Dec’22 and Brent Jan’22 respectively.
• Spot gold spent much of the morning firmer as the DXY waned below 110.00, but as the index reclaims the figure the yellow metal has been tarnished in turn and has slipped back below the 21-DMA though remains above the 10-DMA.
• Biden admin reportedly reviewing plans for a Russian oil price cap, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Under earlier plans, a price cap in the range of USD 40-60/bbl was mulled, but sources suggested discussions involve a cap at the higher end of that range and above. No decision is expected before the US mid-term elections.
• Click here for more detail.

CENTRAL BANKS

• RBNZ Governor Orr said New Zealand is relatively well positioned, but inflation is still too high in an absolute sense; has eyes firmly focused on meeting inflation target, via Reuters.
• Westpac's Evans is forecasting a 50bp rate hike from the RBA next week (vs market expectations for 25bps hike).
• Brazilian Selic Interest Rate 13.75% vs. Exp. 13.75% (Prev. 13.75%). BCB will not hesitate to resume the tightening cycle if the disinflationary process does not proceed as expected; it will stay vigilant, and policy can be adjusted, via Reuters and Bloomberg.
• CBRT raises its year-end inflation estimate to 65.2% from 60.4%.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• UK PM Sunak is reconsidering tax rises as an improving economic picture means the PM is examining whether some of the sweeping measures can be watered down, according to The Telegraph.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

• German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Nov) -41.9 vs. Exp. -41.9 (Prev. -42.5, Rev. -42.8).

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is under modest pressure, downside which has increased amid the recent relative resurgence in the USD.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US has accelerated the fielding of a more accurate version of its mainstay nuclear bomb to NATO bases in Europe, according to a US diplomatic cable and two people familiar with the issue, via Politico.
• Ukraine has boosted its forces in the northern region to counter the potential attack from Belarus, according to Ukraine's general staff, via Reuters.

OTHER

• Chinese President Xi said, "the Chinese and American peoples have many things in common, and can become good friends and partners for mutually beneficial cooperation.", according to CCTV
• US Air Force is to replace its entire fleet of F-15 jets in Okinawa, Japan with a rotational force, via FT; officials cited are concerned this will send a dangerous signal to China re. deterrence.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mixed following a similar lead from Wall Street and amid a lack of fresh fundamental drivers overnight.
• ASX 200 was supported by gains across its commodities-related sectors, whilst financials lagged after ANZ Bank shed over 3% post-earnings.
• Nikkei 225 was in the red as exporters were pressured by the recent firming in the Japanese currency against the Dollar.
• KOSPI saw gains across its energy, industrial, and IT names, whilst Samsung Electronics saw choppy trade after earnings before stabilising in the green.
• Hang Seng outperformed and the Hang Seng Tech index also surged following the recent selling - the gains were driven by Alibaba and JD.com.
• Shanghai Comp was firmer at the open but gains fizzled out, whilst the PBoC injected another CNY +200bln via 7-day reverse repo for a third straight session.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• Samsung Electronics (005380 KS) - Q3 2022 (KRW): Revenue 76.8tln (Co. exp. 76tln), Net profit 9.4tln (exp. 7.9tln), expects H2 2023 recovery in memory chips focused on servers and mobile; expect tech and memory chip demand to remain weak in Q4. Q3 Consolidated Net 9.14tln (exp. 9.43tln). Co. expects tech and memory chip demand to remain weak in Q4. Q4 demand for smartphones and wearables is forecast to increase Q/Q; 2023 demand for smartphones and wearables is expected to grow. (Newswires)
• Japan is eyeing in excess of JPY 29tln in government spending on stimulus, according to NHK.
• PBoC injected CNY 240bln via 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate 2.00% for a daily injection of CNY 238bln.
• China's MOFCOM sees retail sales keeping a stable recovery, consumption expected to stabilise and recover; Foreign Ministry says China is prepared to make "vast space for peaceful unification".

DATA RECAP

• South Korean GDP Growth YY Advance (Q3) 3.1% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.9%); QQ Advance (Q3) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.7%)
• Australian Import Prices (Q3) 3.0% (Prev. 4.3%); Export Prices (Q3) -3.6% (Prev. 10.1%)