• APAC stocks traded lower throughout the session but climbed off session lows as markets juggled the US PPI data and the latest geopolitical developments.
• Polish Foreign Ministry said a "Russian-made" rocket landed in a Polish village at 15:40 local time on Tuesday
• US officials said initial findings suggest the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, according to AP.
• DXY traded on either side of 106.50, EUR/USD remains on a 1.03 handle, JPY lags G10 FX, GBP eyes UK inflation metrics.
• Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation, Canadian CPI, US Retail Sales and IP, ECB Financial Stability Review, BoE Treasury Select Committee, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, Panetta, de Cos, Fed's Williams, Barr, Waller, Supply from Germany, US.

US TRADE

• US stocks were firmer, albeit choppy, as the earlier soft PPI optimism was scaled back following reports over Polish casualties near the Ukraine border (see below for details). Walmart (WMT) was an outperformer and rose some 6.5% after solid earnings, a guidance upgrade, and fresh USD 20bln share buybacks.
• SPX +0.87% at 3,991, NDX +1.45% at 11,871, DJIA +0.17% at 33,592, RUT +1.50% at 1,889
• Click here for a detailed summary.

OTHER NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed's Barr (voter) said inflation is far too high and it's the case that we are going to see significant softening in the economy. Barr does not have a precise projection on the unemployment rate, but will see it go up. Barr said the Fed will be data-dependent and employment is one of the indicators the Fed looks at. Barr said there is higher volatility in Treasury markets, which has been accompanied by a reduction in liquidity; Fed is very attentive to risks that may lie ahead, via Reuters.
• US Senate Majority Leader Schumer said he would like to get the debt ceiling bill done during this work period, via Reuters.
• Apple (AAPL) CEO said it's made the decision to source chips from Arizona and source additional chips from Europe and is set to buy chips from the plant that opens in 2024, according to Bloomberg.
• Elon Musk said reports that SpaceX is in funding talks that would value it over USD 150bln is false.
• US Republicans won control of the US House of Representatives, according to Decision Desk HQ.
• Former US President Trump filed a statement of candidacy for the 2024 presidential bid, according to Bloomberg.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• There were reports of at least two dead after Russian missiles landed in NATO state Poland on the Ukraine border, according to The Express.
• Polish Foreign Ministry said a "Russian-made" rocket landed in a Polish village at 15:40 local time; Poland has summoned the Russian ambassador, via Reuters.
• US officials said initial findings suggest the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, according to AP
• US President Biden said the missile that hit a Polish village near the border with Ukraine was probably not launched from Russian territory, citing information on the rocket's trajectory, via dpa.
• US President Biden said leaders will determine the next steps after finding out what happened in Poland, and added that Russia continues to escalate its attacks in Ukraine.
• Polish President said there is no definitive evidence of who fired the rocket that fell onto the village, and added that what happened was a one-off incident and there are no indications that it will happen again, via Reuters.
• Senior US Intelligence official said Russian missiles crossed into Poland, killing two, according to AFP. Later US Pentagon said it cannot corroborate reports of two Russian missiles crossing into Poland at this time, according to Reuters. US State Department said they are talking to a range of partners about reports coming out of Poland and are incredibly concerning.
• Local Polish media reports citing sources said what hit Przewowo is most likely the remains of a rocket shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, via Radio Zet.
• Polish PM said they are working to establish the cause of the explosion in the village near the border with Ukraine, and decided to increase monitoring of air space, according to Reuters.
• Russia denies aiming missiles near the Ukraine-Poland border, according to TASS. Russia's Defence Ministry said statements by Polish media and officials about the Russian missiles hitting Polish territory are a deliberate provocation with the aim of escalating the situation, according to Interfax.
• Kremlin spokesperson said he has no information on the incident in Poland, via Reuters.
• Ukraine's President Zelenskiy said Russian missiles have struck Poland; strikes on NATO territory a significant escalation and action is required, via Reuters.
• Polish President said it is very likely that Poland will activate Article 4 of the NATO Treaty on Wednesday at the NATO meeting, via Reuters
• NATO ambassadors to meet on Wednesday at Poland's request on the alliance's Article 4, according to European diplomats cited by Reuters.

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• Hungary's Mol said it has been notified by Ukraine that oil supply to Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic via the Druzhba pipeline has been temporarily suspended, according to a statement. Pipeline operator Pern said oil is flowing normally via the Polish section of the Druzhba pipeline.
• Hungary PM Orban has convened a meeting of the defence council after the Druzhba pipeline shutdown and Polish events, according to State News Agency citing Orban's press chief.

OTHER

• UK PM Sunak is to meet Chinese President Xi on the sidelines of G20, according to Politico.
• WTO Chief said risks to 2023 global trade forecasts are on the downside; said the US is actively consulting with WTO members informally on dispute settlement system reform - hopeful of a breakthrough next year, via Reuters.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded lower throughout the session but climbed off session lows as markets juggled the US PPI data with the latest geopolitical development.
• ASX 200 was pressured by its heavyweight Financials sector, with losses also seen across gold miners.
• Nikkei 225 briefly fell back under the 28k mark but losses were cushioned by the weaker JPY, whilst machinery names were after the Japanese government cutting its machinery orders assessment.
• KOSPI conformed to the downbeat tone across the region with the heaviest losses seen across the electronics and construction sectors.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded with losses as Chinese equities took a breather from the recent upside, with price action relatively contained.
• US equity futures opened slightly lower but pared the losses as the session went ahead before moving into positive territory as AP reported that the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces, with the ES back above 4,000 towards the end of the session.
• European equity futures fell by over 1.0% amid the latest events in Poland near its border with Ukraine, although futures trimmed losses after AP poured cold water on the likelihood of an imminent escalation, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.5% after cash closed +0.7%.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

FX

• DXY traded between gains and losses and on either side of 106.50 after printing a 107.11-105.30 range yesterday, with DXY declining towards the end of the APAC session after reports the missile that hit Poland could've been from Ukrainian forces.
• EUR/USD and GBP/USD were initially uneventful but the pairs eventually climbed over 1.0350 and 1.1850 as the DXY eased off highs, with the upside in Sterling slightly more contained ahead of UK inflation data.
• JPY was the G10 laggard as USD/JPY gradually made its way to test 140.00 to the upside from a 138.74 low.
• Antipodeans were rangebound with no reaction seen in AUD in wake of the Wage Price Index data ahead of tomorrow's Labor Force Survey.
• PLN lagged in the EM FX space after a Polish village near the Ukrainian border saw casualties after explosions.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0363 vs exp. 7.0409 (prev. 7.0421)
• Click here for a detailed summary.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures faded a modest bid after Treasuries bull-flattened on Wall Street amid soft PPI data and geopolitical angst, albeit corporate supply and Fed Speak saw two-way flows.
• Bund futures were firmer for most of the session before moving into the red after reports suggested the missile that hit Poland may have been from Ukrainian forces intercepting a Russian missile.
• 10yr JGB futures saw a modest bid in tandem with global peers for most of the session - with the corresponding cash yield around 24bps.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

COMMODITIES

• Crude trimmed some of the notable gains seen in the NY afternoon which emanated from the Druzhba pipeline halting Russian oil deliveries and the reports of missiles landing in NATO state Poland which killed two people.
• Spot gold was modestly softer and moved in tandem with the Dollar around the USD 1,775/oz mark.
• Base metals were relatively flat/mixed, with LME copper finding resistance around the USD 8,500/t region.
• US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude -5.8mln (exp. -0.4mln), Cushing -0.8mln, Gasoline +1.69mln (exp. +0.3mln), and Distillate +0.9mln (exp. -0.5mln).
• Iraq believes it is necessary to review its quota allocated by OPEC, according to State News Agency.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin traded flat overnight after finding some resistance at USD 17k.
• BlockFi is preparing a potential bankruptcy filing after halting withdrawals of customer deposits and acknowledging it has “significant exposure” to FTX, according to WSJ sources.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China's state planner said growth stabilisation policies will take effect in Q4, will actively expand effective investment and speed up consumption recovery in key sectors, via Reuters.
• China reported 1,623 (prev. 1,661) new coronavirus cases in the mainland for Nov 15
• China's Beijing reported 197 new local symptomatic cases (vs 303 the prior day)
• Shanghai Disney said parts of the resort will resume operations on Nov 17th; Disneyland Park will remain closed until further notice, via Reuters.
• Xinjiang's Yining announced on Tue life & production will return to normal, after successfully curbing the latest COVID 19 spread, according to Global Times.
• PBoC injected CNY 71bln via 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate of 2.00% for a CNY 63bln net injection.
• PBoC Governor Yi said talks with US Treasury Secretary Yellen were candid and constructive, via Bloomberg.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen and PBoC Governor Yi discussed macroeconomic and financial developments, high and volatile commodity prices, the sides exchanged macroeconomic views outlooks of US and China. Yellen noted that she looks forward to future engagements with the Chinese side, according to the Treasury Department.

APAC DATA

• Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Sep) -4.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -5.8%)
• Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Sep) 2.9% vs. Exp. 7.4% (Prev. 9.7%)
• Australian Westpac Leading Index (Oct) -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
• Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q3) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.7%, Rev. 0.8%)
• Australian Wage Price Index YY (Q3) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.6%)
• Chinese House Prices YY* (Oct) -1.6% (Prev. -1.5%)

EU/UK

NOTABLE EU/UK HEADLINES

• UK Chancellor Hunt is to give local authorities the right to raise council tax by a maximum of 4.99% from 2.99%, according to FT.
• UK regulators may require social media firms to disclose algorithms, according to the FT.
• ECB's Holzmann said interest rate will be raised even further, via Reuters.
• ECB's Stournaras said the pace of rates adjustment should be prudent, via Reuters.
• SNB Chair Jordan said monetary policy is still expansionary and will have to most likely adjust policy again, via Reuters.