• APAC stocks traded mostly firmer as sentiment somewhat picked up following the negative handover from Wall Street
• DXY was choppy on either side of 106.50 but held a downside bias whilst G10s gained and the NZD and GBP outperformed
• European equity futures were firmer overnight, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.7% after cash markets closed lower by 0.1%.
• North Korea fired a missile believed to be an ICBM with the capacity to reach the US mainland; the missile fell inside Japan's EEZ
• Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, Norwegian GDP, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Haskel, Sovereign Debt Ratings for Portugal, South Africa, Turkey, Italy and Sweden.

US TRADE

• US stocks were ultimately lower following a slew of Fed speakers – with Fed’s Bullard (voter) maintaining his hawkish views talking about restrictive territory at 5.00-5.25%. Sectors in the US saw Tech and Energy closing in the green, whilst Utilities lagged peers.
• SPX -0.31% at 3,947, NDX -0.19% at 11,677, DJIA -0.02%, RUT -0.76% at 1,839.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

OTHER NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed's Kashkari (non-voter) said we cannot be over-persuaded by one month's data and need to stay at it until at least sure inflation has stopped climbing. He added that CPI and PPI give some evidence that inflation is plateauing, and if projections are right, would imagine Fed stops raising rates in 2023. Kashkari said the US economy is sending wildly mixed signals, Fed's job is to keep inflation in check, and added this is not wage-driven inflation, this inflation is from demand and constrained supply, and there is a lot of tightening in the pipeline, via Reuters.
• US House Speaker Pelosi confirmed she will not run for House Democratic leader in November 30th party elections.
• US President Biden Aides, NEC Chair Deese and CEA Chair Rouse are expected to depart in 2023, according to Bloomberg.
• General Motors (GM) expect FY22 adj. automotive FCF will increase to 10-11bln (prev. 7-9bln); 2022 adj. EBIT of 13.5-14.5bln (prev. 13-15bln); raises 2022 guidance and expects NA EV portfolio to be profitable in 2025 as annual capacity tops 1mln.
• Amazon (AMZN) said there will be more role reductions; doesn't know yet exactly how many roles will be impacted, via Reuters.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mostly firmer as sentiment somewhat picked up following the negative handover from Wall Street.
• ASX 200 was lifted by gains in its heavy-weight financials sector, whilst Oz Minerals resided as one of the winners following a sweetened takeover deal by BHP.
• Nikkei 225 briefly climbed back above 28,000 with BoJ Governor Kuroda reiterating the need for easy monetary policy, whilst Nissan shares failed to benefit from General Motors’ guidance upgrade.
• KOSPI trimmed earlier gains following reports of North Korea firing an ICBM which was in flight for 69 minutes.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the former boosted by shares in Alibaba rising some 6% post-earnings.
• US equity futures resumed trade with modest gains and traded sideways throughout the session.
• European equity futures were firmer overnight, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.7% after cash markets closed lower by 0.1%.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

FX

• DXY was choppy on either side of 106.50 but held a downside bias after printing a 106.08-107.25 parameter yesterday.
• EUR/USD was flat above 1.0350 after the pair notched a high of 1.0406 yesterday – a whisker away from the 200 DMA at 1.0412
• GBP/USD was among the outperformers following the unveiling of the Autumn budget, with the pair topping resistance at 1.1900 during the APAC session
• USD/JPY traded sideways just above 140.00 for most of the session whilst BoJ Governor Kuroda reiterates recent remarks after Japanese Core CPI rose at the fastest pace since Feb 1982. The pair then fell beneath 140.00 following reports that North Korea’s suspected ICBM landed inside Japan’s EEZ.
• Antipodeans were firmer with the NZD the G10 outperformer north of 0.6150 ahead of next week’s RBNZ policy announcement, whilst AUD/USD eventually climbed over 0.6700.
• Yuan experienced some modest weakness after the Chinese cash open, with the PBoC again opting for a weaker-than-expected CNY fix.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1091 vs exp. 7.0905 (prev. 7.0655)
• Click here for a detailed summary.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures were flat and moving sideways after bear-flattening on Thursday following hawkish commentary from Fed's Bullard.
• Bund futures traded sideways above 140.00 and within a contained range.
• 10yr JGB futures were slightly softer intraday, whilst the corresponding cash yield remains under 25bps.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were firmer intraday and back on USD 82/bbl and USD 90/bbl handles respectively following hefty selling in the US session on account of several factors - such as the risk-off sentiment, a strong Dollar, and Nigeria's Forcados crude oil terminal resuming loading.
• Spot gold saw modest gains above USD 1,750/oz after declining from a USD 1,774.80/oz high yesterday, with little action seen to reports that North Korea fired a suspected ICBM.
• Base metals were mostly firmer as sentiment in APAC recovered and the Dollar pulled back.
• Total (TTE FP) CEO says oil prices will likely stay high in 2023, via Reuters.
• Osaka Gas (9532 JT) President said it is highly possible that US Freeport LNG operation resumption will be delayed, via Reuters.
• ANZ raises estimate of 2023 Chinese oil demand growth to 800k BPD from 450k BPD, via Reuters.
• Canada has not committed to establishing an OPEC-like group for nickel-producing countries with Indonesia and is 'very unlikely' to join any such group, according to Reuters citing Government sources.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin traded with modest gains between USD 16,500 and USD 17,000.
• Crypto lender Genesis reportedly sought an emergency loan of USD 1bln by Monday, according to WSJ.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC adviser said the government should set its 2023 economic growth target no lower than 5%; adds that it is urgent for China's economic growth to return to a reasonable range, via Reuters.
• China reported 2,362 (prev. 2,388) new confirmed coronavirus cases in the mainland for November 17th.
• Beijing reported 100 new symptomatic cases (prev. 172) and 366 new asymptomatic cases (prev. 262) for November 17th.
• PBoC injected CNY 21bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.00% for a CNY 9bln net injection.
• BoJ Governor Kuroda said Japan's core CPI is likely to slow in pace from next year; reiterated that the BoJ will maintain easy monetary policy, via Reuters. Governor Kuroda said rapid one-sided FX moves are undesirable; undesirable to tighten policy now. Kuroda sees no need to now revise the govt's and BoJ's policy mandates. Governor Kuroda said Japan has yet to see inflation hit 2% in a stable and sustained manner; the current increase in CPI is driven mostly by rising import costs, via Reuters. Kuroda said the BoJ could normalise monetary policy if the achievement of price target is in sight, which could push up cost of financing government debt.
• Senior BoJ official said recent inflation may affect next year's wage negotiations and outlook for service prices, via Reuters.

APAC DATA

• Japanese CPI, Core Nationwide YY (Oct) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.0%); fastest pace since Feb 1982
• Japanese CPI Index Ex Fresh Food (Oct) 103.4 (Prev. 102.9)
• Japanese CPI, Overall Nationwide (Oct) 3.7% (Prev. 3.0%)

GEOPOLITICS

NORTH KOREA

• North Korea appeared to have fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), according to Yonhap.
• North Korean missile had enough range to reach the US mainland, according to the Japanese Defence Minister.
• North Korean missile was an ICBM-class missile that flew for around 69 minutes, according to the Japanese Defence Minister; missile had a possible range of over 10,000km, via Reuters.
• North Korean missile believed to have landed inside Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), according to Japanese PM Kishida; no reports of damages, via Reuters.
• South Korean President Yoon has ordered to strengthen security cooperation with US and Japan following North Korea's ICBM launch, via Reuters
• US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Canada will hold an emergency summit on the sidelines of APEC over North Korea's ICBM launch, according to Kyodo citing a Japanese government source
• US strongly condemns North Korea's long-range ballistic missile test, according to a statement; US will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of US, South Korea, and Japan, according to the White House.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary said Japan did not take any action to destroy the missile and hopes to keep in close contact with US and South Korea, via Reuters.
• Japanese government convened emergency gathering team following North Korea's presumed ICBM launch, according to NHK.
• South Korea to convene a National Security Council meeting over North Korea's missile launch, according to the presidential office.

OTHER

• US is sceptical of reports that Iran has developed a hypersonic missile, according to a pentagon spokeswoman.
• Biden admin said Saudi Prince has immunity from lawsuit in the Khashoggi killing, according to a court filing cited by Reuters.
• Chinese President Xi said Beijing is considering holding the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation next year, via state media.

EU/UK

NOTABLE EU/UK HEADLINES

• SNB's Maechler said FX-swap-market transmission is not yet complete and inflation is more persistent and broader than thought, via Reuters. Maechler added that inflation started with shocks but it's no longer shock-driven and has the risk of being more persistent; will continue to raise rates if see inflation projections above target.
• Italy's 2023 budget is to be put to cabinet Monday and will amount to EUR 30-32bln in total measures, according to ANSA sources.

EU/UK DATA

• UK GfK Consumer Confidence* (Nov) -44 (Prev. -47.0)