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Original insights into market moving news

US Market Open: Contained trade with catalysts & the schedule light

  • European bourses and US futures reside in narrow ranges are essentially pivoting the unchanged mark
  • DXY has managed to regroup amid an initial retreat in USTs; though, the index remains around the mid-point of a 105.04-105.42 range
  • EGBs & their UK counterpart have, despite initial pressure, staged a firm rally to a test/eclipse of Wednesday's peaks; USTs remain lower
  • Crude benchmarks are consolidating after yesterday's mid-week pressure, though the rebound this morning is limited and rangebound
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims & a speech from ECB's Lagarde.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses and US futures reside in narrow ranges are essentially pivoting the unchanged mark; Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1, ES +0.1.
  • In Europe, the sectoral breakdown is mixed/lower with no overarching bias emerging.
  • Chinese November Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales -9.5% Y/Y (prev. +6.9% Y/Y in Oct), according to PCA; Tesla (TSLA) exports 37.8k China-made vehicles in November (54.5k in October).
  • Elon Musk's bankers are reportedly considering providing new margin loans backed by Tesla (TSLA) shares to replace some high-interest debt to acquire Twitter, via Bloomberg citing sources.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY has managed to regroup amid a initial retreat in USTs; though, the index remains around the mid-point of 105.04-105.42 ranges.
  • Action which has modestly dented peers across the board, particularly GBP and JPY below and above 1.22 and 137.00 respectively.
  • Antipodeans and the EUR are the relative 'outperformer', though they are essentially unchanged vs USD
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9606 vs exp. 6.9603 (prev. 6.9975)
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • AUD/USD: 0.6665 (201M), 0.6700 (526M), 0.6800-10 (1.02BN)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • EGBs & their UK counterpart have, despite initial pressure, staged a firm rally to a test/eclipse of Wednesdays peaks amid the latest rhetoric from Russia.
  • However, USTs have been unable to keep up with this and are still softer to the tune of 10 ticks, with yields firmer across the curve as such; currently, action is most pronounced in the belly.
  • German Federal Constitutional Court has rejected the request for temporary injunction on 2021 supplementary budget; decision related to govt credit authorisation of EUR 60bln for climate funds.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are consolidating after yesterday's mid-week pressure, though the rebound this morning is limited and rangebound.
  • Spot gold is, once again, sideways around the USD 1775/oz mark while base metals glean some support from the latest touting of Chinese economic measures.
  • Former Peruvian President Castillo was detained and is accused of rebellion.
  • Commodities trader Trafigura more than doubled net profits in 2022 vs 2021.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK PM Sunak refused to rule out a ban on strikes by emergency services and said he will do what is needed to keep the public safe during ongoing industrial action as he threatens tougher laws, according to Sky News.
  • UK's Unite union said around 146 members will begin strike action at Petrofac's (PFC LN) Repsol (REP) installation on December 8th and 9th over pay and working terms, while 76 members at BP (BP/ LN) installations are to strike over working rotation, according to Reuters.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • UK RICS Housing Survey (Nov) -25 vs. Exp. -10 (Prev. -2)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US President Biden's administration will appeal to keep COVID-era border restrictions in place following a court order, according to Reuters.
  • Democrats reportedly plan to release their government funding proposal on Monday, with talks seriously stalled, according to Politico.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

  • US federal prosecutors are investigating whether Sam Bankman-Fried and his hedge fund orchestrated trades that led to the collapse of two cryptocurrencies in May, according to NYT.
  • It was initially reported that US House Finance Services Chair Waters doesn't plan to subpoena Sam Bankman-Fried to testify at the hearing on FTX's collapse, although Waters later denied the report.
  • US SEC has investigations under way focusing on exchanges including Coinbase (COIN) and the U.S. businesses of Binance and FTX, according to WSJ sources.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • German Chancellor Scholz said the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons has decreased, according to Funke Media.
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov says if the US deploys medium-range missiles in Asia/Europe then Russia's approach to the moratorium will changed, via Reuters; adds, Russia's nuclear deterrence forces are on full alert, according to Al Jazeera.

OTHER

  • Taiwan Defence Ministry said 9 Chinese air force planes crossed the Taiwan Strait median line during the past 24 hours, according to Reuters.
  • US, Japan, and South Korea nuclear representatives meeting in Indonesia on the 12th and 13th December over North Korea, Via Yonhap.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded cautiously after the lacklustre handover from Wall St where the major indices were subdued as participants digested deflationary data and Russian President Putin's nuclear rhetoric.
  • ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in the energy sector after oil prices recently slipped to a YTD low and with sentiment not helped by a monthly contraction in both export and imports, as well as the failure of takeover talks between Link Administration and suitor Dye & Durham.
  • Nikkei 225 traded negatively amid reports that the government is to propose a JPY 1tln tax income increase to fund national defence, while data releases were uninspiring as it surprisingly showed the first Current Account deficit since June and although Q3 GDP was revised higher, it remained in negative territory.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark buoyed by strength in casino names on the reopening play as Hong Kong is said to be considering easing COVID testing rules for arrivals and may repeal the outdoor mask rule, while the mainland is indecisive amid trade-related headwinds with the Netherlands planning curbs on tech exports to China under an agreement with the US.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • China is said to be mulling further property market easing measures at next week's economic meeting, according to Bloomberg sources.
  • Macau to relax COVID test rules for Chinese visitors, according to Bloomberg.
  • Hong Kong reports 14.4k COVID cases (prev. 11.9k); Hong Kong government says social distancing measures are set to remain in place.
  • Japanese PM Kishida said no planning to increase income tax for defense spending.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese GDP QQ (Q3) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.3%); Annualised (Q3) -0.8% vs. Exp. -1.1% (Prev. -1.2%)
  • Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Oct) 12.2B vs. Exp. 12.1B (Prev. 12.4B)
  • Australian Goods/Services Exports (Oct) -1% (Prev. 7%); Imports (Oct) -1% (Prev. 0%)
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