• European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover.
• Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA's after-market update.
• The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers; Antipodeans outperform and GBP lags despite Mann.
• Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented, EGBs & USTs in-fitting though incrementally more contained.
• BoE's Mann says she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.
• WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses, Henry Hub firmer, spot gold contained but erring lower.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP/PCE Q4 (2nd Estimate), IJC Japanese CPI, Speeches from Fed's Bostic & Daly, BoE's Cunliffe, Supply from US, Earning from Moderna.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%.
• However, the FTSE 100 -0.5% is the exception following pressure from Anglo American and BAE Systems post earnings, though this is offset a touch by marked outperformance in Rolls Royce.
• Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA's after-market update.
• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) - Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.88 (exp. 0.81), Revenue 6.05bln (exp. 6.01bln). Guides Q1 rev. 6.50bln (exp. 6.33bln). +8% in -pre-market trade
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers.
• Antipodeans are the modest outperformers with AUD benefitting from overnight data and NZD revisiting post-RBNZ highs amid commentary from Governor Orr; AUD/USD and NZD/USD printed peaks of 0.6841 and 0.6251 respectively.
• Despite modest upside following hawkish commentary from BoE's Mann, GBP is the incremental laggard vs USD, though Cable remains comfortably above 1.20 within 1.2015-74 boundaries.
• Elsewhere, EUR was unreactive to unsurprising upwards revisions to January's EZ HICP while the JPY is little changed ahead of domestic CPI and Ueda's Lower House appearance; pivoting 1.06 and 134.90 respectively.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9028 vs exp. 6.9028 (prev. 6.8759)
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FIXED INCOME

• Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented; market pricing for a 25bp BoE hike in March is around the 95%, in-fitting with recent sessions.
• Within the EZ, the hawkish direction remains in-play with Bunds at the lower-end of 133.92 to 134.41 parameters; similarly, USTs are underpressure ahead of 7yr supply and commentary from non-voters Bostic and Daly.
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COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses on Wednesday which saw both benchmarks settle lower by almost USD 2.50/bbl apiece.
• Nat Gas futures experienced modest divergence with TTF fairly contained while Henry Hub is firmer as attention turns to potential cold weather state-side ahead.
• Exxon posted USD 2.5bln after-tax earnings in Kazakhstan and produced 246k bpd there for 2022, while it alerted against potential risks of disruptions of Kazakhstan oil through the CPC pipeline.
• Spot gold has drifted towards the bottom of its intraday range as the Dollar picked up this morning, with the intraday low just under yesterday’s USD 1,823.56/oz trough
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NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE's Mann says failing to do enough now risks the worst of both worlds – the higher inflation and lower activity – as monetary policy will have to stay tighter for longer. Believe that more tightening is needed, and caution that a pivot is not imminent. In her view preponderance of turning points is not yet in the data. BoE should weigh inflation more highly in our reaction function. Adding, she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.

DATA RECAP

• EU HICP Final YY (Jan) 8.6% vs. Exp. 8.6% (Prev. 8.5%); X F & E Final YY (Jan) 7.1% (Prev. 7.0%); X F, E, A & T Final YY (Jan) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 5.2%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed's Williams (voter) said 2% inflation is a foundational target and price stability is an absolute imperative, while he noted an absolute commitment to getting back to 2% over the next few years. Williams stated that although goods prices have come down in the last several months, there are signs this may not go as quickly as hoped and said they don't want inflation expectations anchor to slip. Furthermore, he noted that demand exceeds supply and the labour market is exceptionally strong, while monetary policy must bring demand and supply back into balance.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen says she does not have a specific timeframe for a resumption of dialogue with China.
• Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

• Russian Defence Ministry accused Ukraine of planning to stage an 'armed provocation' in the near future against Transnistria, Moldova and noted that it is ready to respond to any changes in the situation, according to a Telegram and RIA news agency.
• Russian President Putin said Moscow will pay increased attention to bolstering the country's nuclear forces and will start mass deliveries of Zirkon sea-launched hypersonic missiles, according to Reuters.
• US President Biden said Russian President Putin's suspension of the New START treaty is a big mistake and is not very responsible, while Biden added that he does not read into Russian President Putin's comments that he's thinking of using nuclear weapons and sees no change in Russia's nuclear posture, according to an interview with ABC News.
• US mulls releasing intelligence on China's potential arms transfer to Russia, according to WSJ.
• Russian Defense Ministry plane has reportedly crashed near Belgorod, Russia, via AJA Breaking citing Tass.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is firmer on the session having successfully reclaimed the USD 24k mark after losing the figure on Wednesday, though it remains shy of recent USD 25k+ levels.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks lacked firm direction with price action mostly rangebound amid thinned conditions due to the holiday closure in Japan and following the mixed performance stateside where the major indices faded mild gains in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes.
• ASX 200 was the laggard with the index weakened by underperformance in the mining industry after recent declines in commodity prices and a slump in Rio Tinto’s profits, although losses were limited as participants also digested better-than-expected capex data.
• KOSPI was the biggest gainer amid recent currency weakness and after the BoK kept its rate unchanged for the first time in a year, as unanimously expected.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive with stocks initially led higher by strength in tech and after China vowed to improve measures to cut taxes and fees, although the gains were briefly pared amid ongoing global frictions and the PBoC’s liquidity drain.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoK maintained its base rate at 3.5%, as expected, while it noted uncertainties surrounding the policy decision are high and it deemed it warranted to keep a restrictive policy stance for a considerable time. BoK Governor Rhee said board member Cho Yoon-Je dissented and that the decision should not be taken as indicating the tightening cycle is over. Furthermore, Rhee stated that five members wanted to keep the chance open for the terminal rate to reach 3.75% and that the decision was based on the expectation that inflation will head down from March, while he added that it is time to stop and watch if the inflation trend goes along the expected path.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry says the consumer market recovery momentum was strong in January, will take more measures to restore and expand consumption.
• China is to shake up its financial system, according to WSJ; Citic Group Chairman Zhu Hexin is reportedly the leading candidate for PBoC governor, according to sources.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Capital Expenditure (Q4) 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -0.6%)
• Australian Private Capital Expenditure 2023-2024 (AUD)(Est. 1) 129.7B; 2022-2023 (AUD)(Est. 5) 158.7B (Prev. 155.7B)