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US Market Open: Credit Suisse liquidity actions assist sentiment, the tone is tentative pre-ECB

  • European bourses are bolstered amid as the region reacts to liquidity support for Credit Suisse (+18%), Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, though the tone is tentative pre-ECB.
  • CS took action incl. borrowing CHF 50bln from the SNB and undertaken tender offers for notes; FINMA/SNB say the Co. meets liquidity requirements.
  • Stateside, futures are mixed and near unchanged levels overall with several data points due.
  • USD is softer on the session with G10 peers, ex-NZD, firmer and CHF the standout outperformer given Wednesday's pressures.
  • Core fixed benchmarks remains softer having unwound much of the earlier haven premium, though are well within WTD parameters.
  • Commodities are generally deriving support from the softer USD and the more favourable risk tone.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Export/Import Prices, IJC, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference.

BANKS

CREDIT SUISSE

  • Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) announced decisive action to pre-emptively strengthen liquidity which included public tender offers for debt securities and it intends to borrow up to CHF 50bln from the SNB under the covered loan facility and short-term liquidity facility. Furthermore, Credit Suisse International is to repurchase certain OpCo senior debt securities for cash of up to about CHF 3bln, while the bank noted that the additional liquidity would support its core businesses and clients.
  • FINMA and the SNB asserted that the problems of certain banks in the USA do not pose a direct risk of contagion for Swiss financial markets, while they added that Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks and if necessary, the SNB will provide Credit Suisse with liquidity.
  • SNB confirms it will provide liquidity to Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) against sufficient collateral; says that within its mandate, it can provide liquidity to domestic banks against collateral.
  • Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) launches a tender offer for EUR-denominated notes due 2023 and 2024, offers to repurchase up to EUR 500mln EURO notes, via a memo; launches tender offer for 10 USD-denominated notes and will repurchase up to USD 2.5bln in notes.
  • Several Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) Asian equity managers are said to be leaving the firm, according to Bloomberg.
  • US bank giants reportedly cut direct exposure to Credit Suisse for months, according to Bloomberg.
  • BNP Paribas (BNP FP) is reportedly reducing exposure to Credit Suisse, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
  • JP Morgan (JPM), on Credit Suisse (CSGN SW), says a takeover is the most likely scenario, especially by UBS (USBG SW); JP Morgan (JPM) maintains its overweight on Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) bonds, believes the announced measures will buy CS time to execute the restructuring.
  • Spanish banks exposure to Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) is below EUR 1bln, via Reuters citing sources.

US/SIVB

  • Fed is to launch FedNow instant payments system in July and provided details on the preparation.
  • US OCC is engaging in heightened monitoring of national banks and is coordinating with other regulators.
  • US government will likely only sell SVB to another bank, ruling out PE and VC firms that had been looking at a potential bid, according to The Information citing sources.
  • SVB Financial (SIVB) is reportedly exploring a bankruptcy filing as one option for asset sales, according to Reuters sources. It was also reported that senior banking executives at JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo (JPM, C, BAC, WFC) said the chances are still low that any of them will buy SVB Financial (SIVB), according to FBN citing sources.
  • FBN's Gasparino noted that bankers and analysts say its possible First Republic (FRC) buyer could be JPMorgan (JPM) because it is closely aligned and provides the warehousing for First Republics loans.
  • S&P says bank funding liquidity profiles are sound across Asia; Asian banks do not have similar deposit base to SVB (SIVB).

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are bolstered amid as the region reacts to liquidity support for Credit Suisse (+18%), Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, though the tone is tentative pre-ECB.
  • As such, banking names are the standout outperformer, SX7P (+1.5%) albeit with someway to go to recoup the week's pressure.
  • Stateside, futures are mixed and near unchanged levels overall with banking names leading the pre-market upside, though the European-related reporting does return focus back to the US' own concerns.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • The USD is softer on the session, with the index at the mid-point of 104.20-104.70 parameters with G10 peers mostly firmer across the board.
  • CHF is the outperformer as the SNB/FINMA commitment to provide Credit Suisse with liquidity and subsequent measures by the Co. have supported sentiment after Wednesday's pressure; USD/CHF at the lower-end of 0.9343-0.9231 ranges.
  • EUR/USD has surmounted 1.06 ahead of the ECB given the above Swiss action restores some conviction in the ECB tightening, albeit market pricing is evenly split between 25bp and 50bp.
  • Kiwi is the sole G10 laggard given soft Q4 data overnight and dovish revisions from ASB on the RBNZ in the wake of this release; USD/NZD below 0.6150 from an earlier 0.6191 peak.
  • JPY retains an underlying bid despite the easing in haven demand, perhaps given overnight data, while SEK and NOK are firmer/softer amid regional inflation and survey updates.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9149 vs exp. 6.9173 (prev. 6.8680)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Core benchmarks remain under pressure having unwound much of earlier have premium; albeit, both USTs and EGBs remains well within mid-week ranges.
  • Specifically, Bunds are holding around 136.000 within 135.73-137.19 parameters, USTs just below 115.00 in 114.26-115.19 ahead of the US data before (given clock changes) the ECB decision and Lagarde's press conference.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are deriving support from the softer USD after yesterday's near USD 4/bbl lower settlement, though as outlined above the tone is tentative going into the sessions risk events.
  • Gas prices are mixed once again, though the magnitude of action is contained.
  • G7 opposes lowering the Russian oil price cap from USD 60/bbl, according to WSJ
  • Metals are now mostly positive on the session, given the USD action, with spot gold comfortably above USD 1900/oz and LME Copper holding near USD 8.5k/T.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • BoE held emergency talks with international counterparts on Wednesday night as the crisis deepened at Credit Suisse, according to The Telegraph.
  • UK DMO Chief said global financial markets are pretty stressed and volatile, while it was noted that the UK's 2023/24 financing needs are a very large amount of money and that the auction plan is designed to avoid too much stress on primary dealers. DMO chief added that the focus on short-dated gilt issuance reflects the need to limit investors' duration risk and to raise cash at auctions.
  • Norges Bank Regional Network Report: Developments are slightly stronger than contacts expected in the previous survey, but there is considerable variation across sectors.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

  • France is accused of delaying the EU's EUR 2bln plan to replenish Ukraine's artillery shell stocks, according to The Telegraph. In relevant news, Israel approved export licences for the sale of anti-drone systems to Ukraine which could be used to counter Iranian drones used by Russia, according to Nexta.
  • Russian Defence Minister said US drone flights near Crimea are provocative and could provoke escalation. It was also reported that the US and Russian defence ministers held a phone call which was initiated by the US, according to Interfax.
  • North Korea fired a missile which was likely an ICBM type and South Korea's military said North Korea's series of missile launches are against UN resolutions. Furthermore, South Korean President Yoon ordered the military to thoroughly carry out joint drills with the US and maintain readiness against North Korean threats, while he said North Korea will pay the price for reckless provocations and called for strengthening security cooperation with the US and Japan, according to Reuters.
  • Taiwan's Foreign Ministry said it told Honduras many times that Taiwan is willing to help in its development and it repeatedly reminded Honduras to pay attention to China's false promises. It was also reported that the US State Department said they will continue to monitor the next steps closely regarding Honduras seeking official ties with China and that the Honduran government should be aware that China makes many promises that are unfulfilled
  • Indian Army Cheetah helicopter has crashed near Mandala hills area of Arunachal Pradesh. Search operation for the pilots has started. More details awaited, according to army sources cited by ANI.
  • Iran has agreed to halt military support for Yemen's Houthis rebels as part of the Iran-Saudi deal, according to WSJ.

CRYPTO

  • Circle said it cleared all the backlog of minting and redemption requests for USDC as of March 15th, while it had redeemed USD 3.8bln of USDC and minted USD 0.8bln of USDC since Monday.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region followed suit to the losses in global peers after the recent Credit Suisse turmoil added to the ongoing banking sector fears. However, the major indices were off worse levels and US equity futures nursed some of the prior day’s losses after Swiss authorities attempted to soothe market concerns and Credit Suisse later announced it will take decisive action to strengthen its liquidity including borrowing up to CHF 50bln from the central bank.
  • ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in financials and underperformance of the commodity-related sectors with energy stocks hit after oil prices slumped to their lowest in more than a year, although the index finished off its lows after the stronger-than-expected employment data.
  • Nikkei 225 retreated below the 27,000 level for the first time since January amid the banking sector jitters and geopolitical concerns after North Korea fired a suspected ICBM ahead of a leadership summit between Japan and South Korea. However, Japanese stocks clawed back some of their losses as participants also digested mixed data releases in which Machinery Orders topped forecast with a surprise expansion Y/Y, while Exports growth missed but still accelerated from the prior month.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood amid frictions with the US which threatened to ban TikTok if its Chinese founder doesn't sell an ownership stake, although the downside was stemmed in the mainland after the central bank’s continued liquidity efforts.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • China's securities regulator reportedly paused the approvals for new GDR sales amid concerns that China's A-share market could be pressured, according to Bloomberg.
  • US threatened to ban TikTok if its Chinese founder doesn't sell ownership stake, while TikTok said the forced sale won't resolve national security issues, according to WSJ.
  • China's Commerce Ministry, when asked if restrictions on the import of Australian coal have been removed, says they can apply for coal import licences normally.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese China House Prices YY (Feb) -1.2% (Prev. -1.5%)
  • Japanese Trade Balance (JPY) (Feb) -898B vs. Exp. -1069B (Prev. -3497B, Rev. -3499B)
  • Japanese Imports YY (Feb) 8.3% vs. Exp. 12.2% (Prev. 17.8%, Rev. 17.5%); Exports YY (Feb) 6.5% vs. Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 3.5%)
  • Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Jan) 9.5% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%, Rev. 0.3%); YY (Jan) 4.5% vs. Exp. -3.5% (Prev. -6.6%)
  • Australian Employment (Feb) 64.6k vs. Exp. 48.5k (Prev. -11.5k); Unemployment Rate (Feb) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.7%)
  • Australian Full-Time Employment (Feb) 74.9k (Prev. -43.3k)
  • New Zealand GDP Prod Based QQ (Q4) -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 2.0%, Rev. 1.7%); YY (Q4) 2.2% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 6.4%)
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