• Nasdaq 100 entered a technical bull market after gaining 20% from its December low and the SPX closed above its 50dma for the first time in over three weeks.
• APAC stocks traded mixed as the region only partially sustained the momentum from the US.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed up 1.5% on Wednesday.
• FX markets are contained with the DXY steady above 102.50, JPY marginally outperforms.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss KOF Indicator, EZ Consumer Confidence, German CPI (Prelim.), US Q4 GDP & PCE Prices (Final), Banxico & SARB Policy Announcement, CBRT Minutes, Speeches from Fed's Barkin, SNB's Maechler & Moser, Supply from Italy.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks gained and closed at session highs as fears continued to subside heading into quarter-end and with a duration bias as the recent bond sell-off lost some momentum, while the Nasdaq 100 entered a technical bull market after gaining 20% from its December low and the SPX closed above its 50dma for the first time in over three weeks.
• SPX +1.42% at 4,027, NDX +1.87% at 12,846, DJIA +1.00% at 32,717, RUT +1.08% at 1,771.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed Chair Powell pointed to policymakers’ latest forecasts showing they anticipate one more rate increase and told House GOP that supply chain inflation has been mostly mitigated in a private meeting, according to US Rep. Hern (R) cited by Bloomberg.
• US Treasury official Liang said she would support a study for changes to deposit insurance limits.
• FDIC reportedly mulls squeezing the biggest banks as it plugs a USD 23bln hole with higher fees, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, reports noted that the industry faces a ‘special assessment' after the SVB and Signature Bank failure, while politicians are pressing the agency to spare small banks.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mixed as the region only partially sustained the momentum from the US where the Nasdaq 100 entered a bull market after the recent bond selling slowed and as banking sector fears continued to subside.
• ASX 200 was higher with strength in tech, mining and financials leading the broad optimism across sectors and amid an adjustment in rate expectations with NAB lowering its peak rate forecast to 3.85% from 4.10%.
• Nikkei 225 was pressured heading closer to fiscal year-end amid mild upside in Japanese yields and with notable weakness across large transportation/logistics companies.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive and ultimately faltered despite another substantial liquidity effort by the PBoC with participants digesting a slew of earnings releases and as US-China frictions lingered.
• US equity futures were flat and took a breather from yesterday's advances.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed up 1.5% on Wednesday.

FX

• DXY was slightly firmer after having benefitted yesterday from a surge in USD/JPY, while month- and quarter-end flows were also cited for the dollar regaining some of its poise against G10 peers. Nonetheless, the upside in the buck was limited after Fed Chair Powell pointed to forecasts of just one more rate hike in a meeting with lawmakers and following an agreement between China and Brazil to trade in their own currencies and ditch USD as an intermediary.
• EUR/USD lacked direction after the recent indecision and with ECB rhetoric providing very little incrementally.
• GBP/USD remained subdued albeit with the downward pressure stemmed by support at the 1.2300 level.
• USD/JPY traded rangebound overnight but held on to most of the gains from its recent advances which were attributed to haven outflows and following the absence of any shift in the BoJ’s dovish rhetoric.
• Antipodeans were contained amid the mixed risk tone, slightly less hawkish views on the RBA’s peak rate and soft New Zealand business surveys.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8886 vs exp. 6.8901 (prev. 6.8771).
• BoC Governor Gravelle said the BoC is ready to act in the event of severe market-wide stress and provide liquidity support to the financial system, while the QT programme will likely end sometime around the end of 2024 or H1 2025.
• Brazil's Economy Minister Haddad will reportedly present a new fiscal framework to the Senate president and party leaders on Thursday, according to Estadao citing sources. It was later reported that Brazil's proposed new fiscal rules would target zero primary deficit next year, a primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2025 and 1.0% of GDP in 2026, according to sources cited by Reuters.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures remained subdued after recent selling pressure, further IG supply and a weak 7yr auction.
• Bund futures were stuck at the prior day’s lows after the recent ECB commentary continued to toe the hawkish line and with attention shifting to incoming German inflation.
• 10yr JGB futures tracked the downside in global peers with prices not helped by a mixed 2yr JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures prodded yesterday's lows with prices constrained by the uninspired mood in Asia.
• Iraq's oil ministry announced it has started production from the Akkas gas field.
• France released over 10mln bbls of oil stocks amid ongoing national strikes. It was separately reported that France's petrol supply situation is improving amid strikes in which 13% of stations were lacking at least one product (down from 15% on Tuesday), according to the French industry body.
• Spot gold was contained with the precious metal hampered by the mild gains in the dollar.
• Copper futures were restricted after a recent pullback and amid the mixed risk appetite.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin gained but was well off intraday highs after failing to sustain a brief foray above USD 29,000.
• US SEC Chair Gensler said the agency budget must grow 'to meet the match of bad actors' and that crypto markets are a 'wild west' rife with non-compliance, while tips, complaints and referrals to enforcers have doubled since 2016.
• Gemini is working with market makers on a new international exchange offering perpetual futures and Coinbase (COIN) is reportedly exploring a similar launch, according to The Information
• Coinbase (COIN) is reportedly in ongoing talks about remaining in Canada after a key deadline after Canada's tightened regulations passed, although its larger rival Binance looks set to close up shop, according to CoinDesk.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese Premier Li said at the Boao Forum that to achieve greater success, chaos and conflicts must not happen in Asia otherwise the future of Asia will be lost and they oppose taking sides, forming new blocs and a new Cold War. Premier Li also commented that the economic situation in March is even better than in January and February, while they will consolidate the recovering trend of China's economy and promote a continued recovery, as well as roll out new measures to increase market access and improve the business environment, according to Reuters.
• Spanish PM Sanchez said at the Boao Forum that relations between Europe and China, and by extension between Spain and China, do not need to be confrontational, while he added there is ample room for win-win cooperation and that they must remain partners economically and beyond, according to Reuters.
• China and Brazil reached an agreement to trade in their own currencies, ditching the US dollar as an intermediary.
• Chinese official Xu Xueyuan said Taiwanese President Tsai’s visit to the US will have a severe impact on US-China ties, while Xu added the US is undermining China's sovereignty with the visit and its behaviour is moving away from One-China principles.
• White House said China should not use Taiwan President Tsai's trip to the US as a pretext to step up aggressive activity around the Taiwan Strait and reiterated the trip is consistent with the One-China policy.
• White House's Kirby said a conversation between US President Biden and Chinese President Xi will happen at an appropriate time.

DATA RECAP

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Mar) -43.4% (Prev. -43.3%)
• New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook (Mar) -8.5% (Prev. -9.2%)

GEOPOLITICAL

• Explosions were heard in the vicinity of Syria's capital of Damascus amid Israeli 'aggression', according to the state news agency.

EU/UK

• BoE's Mann said financial conditions have loosened in the UK and it is going to be difficult for the BoE to do its job in H2 as headline inflation slows but core remains persistent.
• UK Chancellor Hunt is on course for a clash with BoE Governor Bailey after Hunt refused to rule out watering down post-financial crisis banking rules despite the BoE warning against weakening banking regulation, according to The Telegraph.
• UK Chancellor Hunt said Britain will not go toe-to-toe with the US and EU by offering billions in green subsidies, according to The Times.
• ECB's Schnabel said a rise in unit labour costs indicates possible second-round effects on inflation and her suspicion is that the energy impact won't drop out of core inflation quickly, while she also noted that they have not seen general outflow from Eurozone bank deposits, according to Reuters.