• APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the recovery seen on Wall Street and as some major markets returned from the long weekend
• European equity futures gapped higher on the return from the Easter break and are indicative of a firmer cash open, with Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%
• DXY traded subdued for most of the session, USD/JPY also saw choppy price action and AUD outperformed
• Bund futures gapped lower at the open but clambered off worst levels, Crude futures edged higher throughout the APAC session
• Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI, EZ Retail Sales and Sentix Index, EIA STEO, speeches from Fed's Goolsbee (voter), Harker (voter), and supply from Germany and the US

EASTER HOLIDAY NEWS

• Click here to catch up on the main events from Easter

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were ultimately flat on Easter Monday, unwinding earlier losses in the aftermath of Friday's NFP report, some cited a Bloomberg sources piece during the NY lunchtime which suggested the Federal Home Loan Bank system had drastically cut the total amount of borrowing in the latest week as a factor behind the recovery in risk.
• SPX +0.10% at 4,109, NDX -0.09% at 13,051, DJIA +0.30% at 33,586, RUT +1.02% at 1,772.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) debt issuance "plunges" in a signal of the easing US bank crisis; USD 37bln in the latest week vs 304bln in the two weeks prior, according to Bloomberg sources.
• Fed's Williams (voter, neutral) said it is important to understand inflation dynamics are complicated; sees inflation this year at around 3.75% and expects to get to 2% inflation by 2025. He expects growth this year to be under 1% and said there is a lot of uncertainty around the inflation outlook. He said the stability of unemployment has been a striking development, and he expects to see the unemployment rate rise gradually to 4-4.5% (prev. saw the unemployment rate tick up to around 4.5% in late March). He sees rent-related price pressures coming down sharply. Williams said market policy expectations are tricky to measure, and he does not worry if the market's view on rates differs from the Fed's view. He is happy to see market rate expectations are reactive to data and said Fed rate hikes weren't the driver of trouble at banks sparking the latest stresses. He hasn't seen clear signs of credit tightening, via Reuters.
• Senior US Treasury Official views the US banking system as strong and resilient, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• Atlanta Fed GDPnow (Q1): 2.2% (prev. 1.5%).

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the recovery seen on Wall Street and as some major markets returned from the long weekend.
• ASX 200 saw its first session of the week propped up by mining names after Newmont upped its offer for Newcrest Mining.
• Nikkei 225 reclaimed 28k+ status with the index underpinned by the recent Yen weakness.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with Hong Kong playing catch-up, whilst the latter overlooked cooling inflation data and traded subdued throughout the session amid heightened tensions over Taiwan.
• US equity futures held a flat/mild upward bias for most of the session but within tight ranges.
• European equity futures gapped higher on the return from the Easter break and are indicative of a firmer cash open, with Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%.

FX

• DXY was choppy within a tight 102.31-51 range, but overall traded subdued for most of the session.
• EUR/USD found some support around 1.0855 while GBP/USD topped 1.2400 in what was seemingly dollar-driven action.
• USD/JPY also saw choppy price action, with the pair pulling back towards its 100 and 50 DMAs (at 133.31 and 133.25 respectively) before finding support at the latter.
• AUD took the spot as the G10 outperformer after China and Australia reached an agreement on a WTO dispute regarding Chinese duties imposed on Australian barley.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8882 vs exp. 6.8884 (prev. 6.8764)
• HKMA bought HKD 3.81bln after the currency reached the weak end of the trading band, according to Reuters.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures attempted to claw back some losses following the prior day’s selling and ahead of a 3yr Note auction later today.
• Bund futures gapped lower at the open but clambered off worst levels as the German bond future played catchup from the Easter break.
• 10yr JGB futures traded on a firmer footing with the complex also propped up by a successful 5yr JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures edged higher throughout the session amid a mostly positive APAC mood, with WTI reclaiming USD 80/bbl+ status.
• Spot gold struggled to reach the USD 2,000/oz mark as DXY remained caged to a tight range.
• Copper futures traded flat on the LME, whilst CME copper met resistance at the USD 4/lb psychological mark.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin prices were volatile with the crypto rising above USD 30k before meeting resistance near USD 30.5k.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China could make cash injections via MLF at an unchanged rate, according to China Daily.
• PBoC said some Chinese banks cut deposit rates in April as part of normal interest rate self-discipline mechanism, according to Bloomberg.
• PBoC injected CNY 5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.00% for a CNY 3bln net injection.
• BoK maintained its base rate at 3.50%, as expected. BoK Governor Rhee said the decision was unanimous, and five board members wanted to keep the door open for one more possible rate hike. He said several board members see the need to give a warning against early rate cut expectations, and added the BoK does not target an FX level, according to Reuters. BoK said economic growth is seen slower than previously expected, inflation to slow to 3% range after Q2 - in line with prior expectations, and the tightening stance to remain in place for a considerable period.
• French senators to visit Taiwan in the week of April 24th, and will discuss semiconductors during the visit, according to Senate office
• Australian Treasurer Chalmers says global economic conditions are getting worse, according to Bloomberg.
• Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said specific monetary policy is up to the BoJ to decide, according to Reuters.
• Warren Buffet said he intends to add more investments in Japanese stocks, according to Nikkei.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese CPI YY (Mar) 0.7% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.0%)
• Chinese CPI MM (Mar) -0.3% (Prev. -0.5%)
• Chinese PPI YY (Mar) -2.5% vs. Exp. -2.5% (Prev. -1.4%)
• Australian Consumer Sentiment (Apr) 9.4% (Exp. 1.5%, Prev. 0.0%)
• Australian NAB Business Confidence (Mar) -1 (Prev. -4.0)
• Australian NAB Business Conditions (Mar) 16 (Prev. 17.0)
• South Korean Trade Balance (Apr 1-10) USD -3.4bln; Exports -8.6% Y/Y; Imports -7.3% Y/Y, according to the customs agency cited by Reuters.

GEOPOLITICAL

CHINA-TAIWAN

• Taiwan Defence Ministry said as of late Tuesday morning, they have spotted 26 Chinese military planes and nine Chinese ships around Taiwan, according to Reuters.
• China refused to use the open channel with the Pentagon over Taiwan, according to Bloomberg.
• Senior White House Administration official said the US is closely monitoring Beijing's actions, the military exercises undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and there was no reason for China to overreact, according to Reuters.
• White House's Kirby said tensions with China are high right now and would like to see the relationship get on better footing. He added the US is in talks with China about possible visits of Treasury Secretary Yellen and Commerce Secretary Raimondo.

OTHER

• US Under Secretary for International Affairs Shambaugh sees a renewed focus on enforcing sanctions against Russia and continued support for Ukraine, according to Reuters.
• Egypt secretly planned to supply rockets to Russia, according to a leaked US document cited by the Washington Post. Egypt's president in February planned to produce 40,000 rockets for Russia and instructed officials to keep production & shipment secret "to avoid problems with the West".
• North Korea does not respond to the inter-Korean liaison office for a fifth straight day, according to Yonhap.
• US, Japan, and South Korea to discuss North Korea in defence talks on April 14th, according to Bloomberg.
• Australia is to suspend its WTO dispute against China on barley after reaching an agreement with China for the resolution of the dispute; China agreed to undertake a review of duties imposed on Australian barley, according to Reuters.
• Israeli Prime Minister said he will retain Defence Minister in place as security tensions rise, according to Reuters.
• Brazilian President Lula said he is going to invite Chinese President Xi to Brazil, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are to hold the G7 meeting on April 12th and will discuss the economy, supply chain, and the Ukraine crisis, according to Reuters.

EU/UK

• UK PM Sunak plans on calling for general elections in the autumn of 2024, according to The Telegraph.
• Italy upgrades 2023 GDP growth forecast to 1% (prev. 0.6% set in Nov) but downgrades 2024 forecast to 1.4% (prev. 1.9%), according to government officials cited by Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Mar) 4.9% (Exp. 4.2%, Prev. 4.9%)