• European bourses are somewhat mixed with heavyweight LVMH skewing performance to the upside, US futures slightly firmer
• DXY continues to retreat from NFP peaks with EUR near YTD best and GBP above 1.25
• EGBs and USTs continue to fade with only fleeting upside arising from well received Gilt supply
• ECB debate reportedly converging around 25bp for May, via Reuters; though some argue for 50bp or Unch.
• Commodities contained overall though metals feature a USD-induced positive bias
• Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, US IJC, OPEC MOMR (07:30ET), speeches from BoC's Macklem, BoE's Pill, supply from the US.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are somewhat mixed, with heavyweight LVMH skewing performance to the upside after their Q1 report.
• Sectors are similarly skewed with Consumer Products & Services outperforming with LVMH inspiring gains in peers, next best are the Housebuilders after numerous upgrades via HSBC.
• Stateside, futures are in the green though only incrementally after Wednesday's pressure, ES +0.2%, ahead of IJC and PPI before retail sales on Friday.
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• Dollar extends retreat from NFP peak as DXY slips to 101.200 in wake of soft headline CPI and dovish-leaning FOMC minutes.
• Greenback's G10 peers clear or probe big figure levels, with Euro eyeing 1.1033 YTD high, Pound back on 1.2500 handle, Franc probing 0.8900 and Yen 133.00.
• Aussie approaches 0.6750 in wake of upbeat jobs data.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8658 vs exp. 68672. (prev. 6.8854)
• Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• Bonds fade after pop on dovish-sounding ECB source report, Bunds hold just off new April low.
• Gilts bounce a few ticks from 102.50 after a strong 10 year UK tap.
• Treasuries essentially flat awaiting US producer prices, jobless claims and long bond supply after sloppy T-note sale.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Overall, a session without specific macro drivers with commodity action relatively contained and somewhat directionless aside from a very modest USD-induced upward bias.
• Currently, WTI and Brent are pivoting the neutral point of a sub-USD 0.50/bbl range that is by extension well within, but at the top-end of, Wednesday’s much more pronounced boundaries.
• PetroChina is close to announcing the award of a stake in QatarEnergy's 32mln ton per year North Field East LNG expansion, Energy Intel reports.
• Metals continue to grind higher owing to the softer USD and positive read on the Chinese consumer via European earnings.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Debate on the next ECB rate move is reportedly converging on a 25bp hike, via Reuters citing sources; debate not over, one small group still making case for 50bp in May, another group after Unch.; Uncertainty, proximity of terminal and delayed impact of past hikes support case for a slowdown, base line in March economic projections seen as largely intact.
• ECB's Nagel said the persistence of high core inflation showed the ECB has further to go in tightening monetary policy, via CNBC.
• Slovak Court finds ECB's Kazimir guilty of bribery, fines him EUR 100k.

DATA RECAP

• UK GDP Estimate MM (Feb) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.4%); YY (Feb) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. 0.4%)
• ONS: Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.3% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020)
• UK GDP Estimate 3M/3M (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
• UK RICS Housing Survey (Mar) -43 vs. Exp. -48.0 (Prev. -48.0, Rev. -47).
• EU Industrial Production MM (Feb) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.7%, Rev. 1.0%); YY (Feb) 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 0.9%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• TikTok parent ByteDance reportedly offers to pay software makers to bring apps to its VR device, while Meta (META) sees friction over its app-store approvals, WSJ reports.
• Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

• Ukraine's Energoatom says Russian mine exploded near generator room of reactor at Zaparizhzhia nuclear plant.
• North Korea fired an unspecified ballistic missile toward the East Sea, according to the South Korean military cited by Yonhap.
• Japan issued an emergency warning following the North Korean missile launch. People in Hokkaido were told to seek shelter. This was later withdrawn.
• Japan's Defence Ministry said the North Korean missile may have been an Inter-continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) type, according to Reuters.
• North Korea seemingly tested a new weapon system, possibly solid-fuel ballistic missiles, according to Yonhap.
• South Korea will hold a security meeting following North Korea's missile launch, according to YTN.
• White House "strongly condemns" what it calls a North Korean ICBM test, according to a statement.
• US-Indo-Pacific Command statement said the North Korean missile launch does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to allies.
• Russian Defence Ministry said its SU-27 fighter aircraft escorted German Orion reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea, according to Reuters.
• Taiwanese Defence Ministry said in the past 24 hours, 26 Chinese aircraft and seven ships were seen around Taiwan; 14 Chinese Air Force planes crossed the Taiwanese Strait Median line on Friday.
• Japan, US, Australia, India "Quad" summit likely to be held on May 24th in Sydney, according to Japanese press.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin remains marginally above the USD 30k mark, but did briefly dip below the figure after surmounting it for the first time in several months earlier in the week.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks initially opened lower but eventually traded mixed as the region pondered over the latest US CPI report alongside Wall Street losses.
• ASX 200 remained in the red as gains in the Energy and Gold sectors failed to fully offset losses in Tech and Healthcare.
• Nikkei 225 briefly dipped under the 28k level before trimming losses, although the region was cautious as the Japanese government initially predicted the latest North Korean missile was in danger of landing in the Southwestern region of Hokkaido.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened lower but then trimmed losses with Hong Kong heavily underperforming at the open as Alibaba slumped over 4.5% after the FT reported Softbank has reportedly moved to sell almost all of its remaining stake in Alibaba. Mainland China did not react to the Chinese March trade data beats across the board as China customs warned China's trade development will face greater difficulties and challenges.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Softbank (9984 JT) has reportedly moved to sell almost all of its remaining stake in Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA), according to the FT.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ will continue monetary easing until the price target is stably and sustainably achieved; domestic consumer inflation is currently around 3% but likely to slow ahead. Governor Ueda said they should pay more attention to the risk of failing to achieve the 2% inflation target with a premature end to easing rather than the risk of being behind the curve on inflation, according to Reuters.
• China customs said China's trade development will face greater difficulties and challenges, according to Reuters. China's customs official said weakening external demand and geopolitical factors will test China's trade development, and the export of NEVs, lithium batteries, and solar products, drove up China's overall exports.
• Industry experts believe the PBoC's LPR will likely remain "unchanged" in April, according to Securities Daily.
• Bank of Korea confirmed FX swap deal with National Pension Fund for a maximum of USD 35bln, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Trade Balance (USD) (Mar) 88.19B vs. Exp. 39.2B
• Chinese Imports YY (Mar) -1.4% vs. Exp. -5.0% (Prev. -10.2%); Exports YY (Mar) 14.8% vs. Exp. -7.0% (Prev. -6.8%)
• Chinese Exports (Jan-Mar) (CNY) +8.4% Y/Y, Imports +0.2% Y/Y.
• Australian Employment (Mar) 53.0k vs. Exp. 20.0k (Prev. 64.6k); Unemployment Rate (Mar) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.5%)
• Australian Participation Rate (Mar) 66.7% vs. Exp. 66.6% (Prev. 66.6%)
• Australian Full Time Employment (Mar) 72.2k (Prev. 74.9k)
• South Korean Import Price Growth YY (Mar) -6.9% (Prev. -0.5%, Rev. -0.7%); Export Price Growth YY (Mar) -6.4% (Prev. -2.7%, Rev. -2.6%)