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Europe Market Open: Fed's Barkin on September & further Woodside talks feature with Flash PMIs due

  • APAC stocks traded mixed amid a slew of earnings releases alongside the latest PMI data from the region but with price action relatively rangebound.
  • Fed's Barkin (2024 voter) said the US economy could reaccelerate before inflation cools and he won't prejudge the outcome of the Fed's September meeting.
  • DXY gave back some of the prior day’s gains, albeit with price action contained ahead of flash PMIs and the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • Woodside Energy is meeting unions for talks as strike threats loom over Australian LNG facilities. Talks are expected to continue until the evening, according to Bloomberg.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, US MBA, Canadian Retail Sales, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from NVIDIA Corp, and the BRICS summit.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

  • US stocks finished mostly lower in what was an ultimately uneventful session amid summer trading conditions and as participants await flash PMI data due today, as well as Fed Chair Powell's speech from Jackson Hole on Friday. Furthermore, consumer earnings were varied and didn't provide any index-level steer, while bonds were also mixed and resulted in deeper yield inversion.
  • SPX -0.28% at 4,387, NDX -0.19% at 14,908, DJIA -0.51% at 34,289, RUT -0.28% at 1,850.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Fed's Barkin (2024 voter) said consumer spending and economic strength make it possible the US economy could reaccelerate before inflation cools and he won't prejudge the outcome of the Fed's September meeting. Barkin added that if inflation remains high and demand gives no signal it is likely to drop, this would require a tighter monetary policy.
  • Fed Discount Rate Minutes stated that two regional Fed boards, Atlanta and New York, sought to hold the discount rate in July.
  • Teamsters ratified the historic UPS (UPS) contract in which the five-year contract protects and rewards more than 340k members, raising wages for full-time and part-time workers.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded mixed amid a slew of earnings releases alongside the latest PMI data from the region, but with price action relatively rangebound heading closer to the Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • ASX 200 was led higher by strength in consumer stocks and the mining sector, with the index unfazed by weaker PMI data from Australia which showed manufacturing at a 6th consecutive monthly contraction.
  • Nikkei 225 pared opening losses although the upside was capped ahead of the 32,000 level after mixed PMI figures, and with Japan facing backlash from China and Hong Kong for its plan to release Fukushima water.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with trade in Hong Kong indecisive and the mainland subdued amid several earnings releases, and as participants await results from China’s big banks.
  • US equity futures rebounded off the prior day's lows, albeit with upside limited ahead of Nvidia's earnings.
  • European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Eurostoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed up by 0.8% yesterday.

FX

  • DXY gave back some of the prior day’s gains, albeit with price action contained as participants await the next risk events including Flash PMIs later today ahead of Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Powell's comments on Friday.
  • EUR/USD was uneventful following the prior day’s slide to back beneath the 1.0900 handle.
  • GBP/USD attempted to nurse some of the losses from its recent fall from resistance at the 1.2800 level.
  • USD/JPY mildly weakened after US-Japan long-term yield differentials slightly narrowed.
  • Antipodeans were kept afloat with early tailwinds from another much firmer-than-expected CNY reference rate.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1988 vs exp. 7.3050 (prev. 7.1992)
  • Russian President Putin said de-dollarisation is an irreversible process.

FIXED INCOME

  • 10yr UST futures eked modest gains with price action contained after yesterday’s choppy performance across bonds which resulted in deeper yield curve inversion.
  • Bund futures extended on advances but with upside capped ahead of PMI data from across the bloc.
  • 10yr JGB futures were ultimately flat, but saw early upside amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for nearly JPY 1.1tln of JGBs on top of its fixed rate operations. The gains were later unwound with Japan's 10yr yield touching its highest since January 2014.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude futures traded rangebound as a softer Dollar offset the narrower-than-expected draw in headline private sector crude inventories, while participants await the outcome of talks amid the union members' deadline for their demands to be met to avert potential strike action at Australian LNG facilities in 7 working days.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.4mln (exp. -2.9mln), Gasoline 1.9mln (exp. -0.9mln), Distillate -0.2mln (exp. +0.2mln), Cushing -2.2mln.
  • Woodside Energy (WDS AT) is meeting unions for talks as strike threats loom over Australian LNG facilities. Talks are expected to continue until the evening, according to Bloomberg.
  • Spot gold edged higher and reclaimed the psychological USD 1,900/oz level amid a softer dollar.
  • Copper futures were kept afloat albeit with price action contained by the mixed risk appetite.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin was lacklustre and retested the USD 26,000 level to the downside.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • US Commerce Secretary Raimondo met with China's ambassador to the US Xie Feng and shared a productive discussion ahead of Raimondo's upcoming trip to Beijing and Shanghai, while Raimondo raised issues of importance to the US, American businesses and workers, according to Reuters.
  • White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said Commerce Secretary Raimondo will reinforce that the US is focused on sustaining an economic relationship with China, while he called on China to be more transparent about the state of the economy and said that Beijing's crackdown on information is not responsible, according to FT.
  • RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said he is mindful of the drop in NZD and said they would lower the OCR sooner than they have signalled if there was a more significant slowdown in China than the RBNZ expects.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Manufacturing PMI (Aug P) 49.7 (Prev. 49.6)
  • Japanese Services PMI (Aug P) 54.3 (Prev. 53.8)
  • Japanese Composite PMI (Aug P) 52.6 (Prev. 52.2)
  • Australian Manufacturing PMI (Aug P) 49.4 (Prev. 49.6)
  • Australian Services PMI (Aug P) 46.7 (Prev. 47.9)
  • Australian Composite PMI (Aug P) 47.1 (Prev. 48.2)
  • New Zealand Retail Sales QQ (Q2) -1.0% vs Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -1.4%, Rev. -1.6%)

GEOPOLITICS

  • Moscow airports suspended flights after Ukrainian drone attacks, according to TASS. Furthermore, Moscow's Mayor said a drone hit a building in central Moscow and another drone was downed over the Moscow region, while the Russian military announced it downed three drones that tried to attack Moscow and the US State Department also commented that the US does not encourage drone attacks in Russia, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev said Russia may annex Georgian breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, according to TASS.
  • China Coast Guard patrolled the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands, which is a disputed territory and also known as Japan's Senkaku Islands, to conduct right-protection cruises, according to Reuters.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • British small businesses saw sales fall by over 20% over the past year, according to research by Sage cited by Bloomberg.
  • Spain's King Felipe nominated People's Party Leader Fejido to seek investiture as PM in a parliamentary vote.
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