• European bourses are marginally firmer ahead of Tier 1 events while US futures are slightly softer post-AAPL
• USD depressed pre-data with NZD outperforming & JPY contained, CAD cautious ahead of its own jobs numbers
• Bunds & Gilts towards the low-end of their parameters with USTs modestly bid
• Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer as we await remarks from Hezbollah's Nasrallah
• Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP & ISM Services, Canadian Employment, Hezbollah remarks. Speeches from Fed's Barr & Kashkari, BoE's Haskel.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are marginally firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, with fresh catalysts limited ahead of Tier 1 events/data.
• Sectors are mainly in the green with earnings dictating: Autos in the driving seat after BMW & Volvo Cars, Real Estate lifted by Vonovia while Insurance breaks from the tone and is pressured after Axa results.
• Stateside, futures are a touch softer ahead of the US jobs data and numerous Fed speakers, ES -0.1%; pressure filtering through on the back of Apple after-hours earnings.
• Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
• Click here for more details.

FX

• Dollar depressed ahead of US payrolls and services ISM as DXY slips back under 106.00 within a 106.22-105.93 range.
• Kiwi 'outperforms' amidst AUD/NZD tailwinds, with NZD/USD mostly above 0.5900 and AUD/USD capped sub-0.6450.
• Euro consolidates on 1.0600 handle vs Greenback and flanked by another bank of big option expiries.
• Yen contained below 150.00 against Buck on Culture Day and also bookmarked by expiry interest.
• Loonie cautious either side of 1.3750 against US rival ahead of Canadian LFS and US NFP face-off.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1796 vs exp. 7.3119 (prev. 7.1797)
• Click here for more details.
• Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

• Debt divergent pre-NFP/ISM after early upside momentum waned.
• Bunds and Gilts both towards bottom of 129.67-99 and 94.23-61 ranges, but T-note afloat between 107-18+/12+ band and curve a tad flatter.
• Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer on the session, in-fitting with the cautiously upbeat risk tone going into US NFP; currently, WTI Dec'23 and Brent Jan'23 are around USD 82.50/bbl and USD 86.75/bbl respectively.
• Though, the space awaits remarks from Hezbollah's Nasrallah in the Hamas-Israel war, particularly for any indication around whether they will join the conflict against Israel - newsquawk primer available here.
• Spot gold is firmer but closer to the unchanged mark and the tone serves as a headwind but ongoing USD softness provides some support. Base metals are performing better, with LME Copper benefitting from the tone and particularly the strong APAC session despite Chinese data.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak said there are no plans to lift restrictions on fuel exports from Russia yet but added liberalisation will be possible when some volumes have nowhere to go, according to RIA.
• Kazakhstan's Energy Minister said 2024 oil output is seen at 90mln tons, while Kazakhstan is to export 4.5 BCM of gas to China this year and up to 11 BCM annually in the coming years, according to Reuters.
• Click here for more details.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB's Schnabel said they expect inflation to return to the target by 2025 with their current monetary policy stance and that the disinflation process during the last mile will be more uncertain, slower and bumpier. Schnabel added they cannot close the door to further rate hikes and that the Euro area economy is not in a deep recession but stagnating.

EUROPEAN DATA

• German Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Sep) 16.5B vs. Exp. 16.3B (Prev. 16.6B); Exports MM -2.4% vs. Exp. -1.1% (Prev. -1.2%); Imports -1.7% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.4%)
• EU Unemployment Rate (Sep) 6.5% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.4%).
• UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Final (Oct) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.2); Composite PMI Final (Oct) 48.7 vs. Exp. 48.6 (Prev. 48.6)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US House passed legislation to provide USD 14bln in new aid to Israel although it faces resistance in the Senate and opposition from the White House as it fails to fund Ukraine or other foreign policy priorities, according to FT.
• Apple Inc (AAPL) Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.46 (exp. 1.39), Rev. 89.5bln (exp. 89.28bln), Products rev. fell 5.3% Y/Y to 67.18bln (exp. 67.82bln), iPhone rev. rose 2.8% Y/Y to 43.81bln (exp. 43.73bln), Mac rev. fell 34% Y/Y to 7.61bln (exp. 8.76bln), iPad rev. fell 10% Y/Y to 6.44bln (exp. 6.12bln), Service rev. rose 16% Y/Y to USD 22.31bln (exp. 21.37bln), Greater China rev. fell 2.5% Y/Y to 15.08bln (exp. 17.01bln). Co. shares were seen lower by 3.4% in after-hours trade, -3.3% in pre-market trade.
• US President Biden's campaign strategy for 2024 is to offer voters a choice between the president's steady hand and "whoever emerges from the extreme MAGA Republicans' primary field.", via Axios; recognise that they face a "very close" election.
• Click here for the US Early-Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

• PRIMER: Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah speaks at 13:00GMT/09:00EDT. Click here for full details.

ISRAEL-HAMAS

• Iran's Supreme Leader commented via social media platform X that the "...occupying entity is helpless and confused now, and without American support will be silenced within days".
• Iraqi armed factions say, from next week, they will begin a new phase of escalation against US bases within the region, via Sky News Arabia.
• US State Department says Blinken will emphasize in Israel the need to prevent the expansion of the conflict, via Sky News Arabia.

OTHER

• Russian attack hit civilian targets and a fire broke out in Ukraine's city of Kharkiv with casualties being clarified, according to the Mayor cited by Reuters.

CRYPTO

• FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of defrauding FTX customers by a jury in New York with SBF found guilty on all seven criminal counts he faced at the trial.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded higher as regional bourses tracked the advances in global peers after the BoE kept rates unchanged and a surprise decline in US Labour Costs added to the dovish impulse, while the holiday closure in Japan and disappointing Caixin Services PMI did little to derail the momentum.
• ASX 200 was led higher again by tech and real estate as yields continued to ease, with sentiment also helped by the surprise expansion in quarterly retail trade.
• KOSPI was underpinned amid earnings releases including blockbuster results from SK Innovation.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad upbeat mood and largely shrugged off weaker Chinese Caixin PMI data and another substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• China's Commerce Minister met with the Micron (MU) President on November 1st and said that China will continue to optimise the investment environment for foreign companies. China's Commerce Minister also told Micron's President they welcome Micron to deepen its footprint in the Chinese market and welcome the Co. to have better development on the premise of abiding by Chinese laws and regulations, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Oct) 50.4 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 50.2); Composite PMI (Oct) 50.0 (Prev. 50.9)
• Australian Retail Trade (Q3) 0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.5%)