• European bourses marginally extend gains alongside US Futures; outperformance in RTY as it pares back losses
• DXY is firmer with slight underperformance in the Yen as it gives back yesterday's gains
• EGBs climb after a stellar German auction and fresh fiscal reports
• Industrial commodities dip amid a flimsy risk tone while XAU remains above USD 2k/oz
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, IJC, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), UoM Inflation Expectations (Final), ECB’s Elderson & BoC’s Macklem, Supply from US

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, in what has been a choppy but ultimately rangebound session ahead of key US data before Thanksgiving commences.
• Sectors are primarily firmer, with the exception of Banks and Energy as European yields slip and energy benchmarks slump.
• Stateside, futures are treading water with volumes thin ahead of US IJC which coincides with the Payroll survey period, ES +0.1%.
• Nvidia (NVDA) - Q3 adj. EPS 4.02 (exp. 3.37), Q3 revenue USD 18.12bln (exp. 16.18bln). The chipmaker settled 1.75% lower after hours after initially falling as much as 6.3%; its Q3 results topped expectations, though it warned China sales would decline in Q4; Bloomberg suggested that the results "failed to satisfy the loftier expectations of shareholders who have bet heavily on an artificial intelligence boom.". -0.4% in pre-market trade.
• Deere & Co (DE) Q3 2023 (USD): EPS 8.26 (exp. 7.47), Revenue USD 15.42bln (exp. 13.58bln). Full-year 2024 earnings forecast to be 7.75-8.25bln (exp. 9.33bln), as volumes return to mid-cyclelevels. . -4.4% in pre-market trade
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FX

• Buck stops the rot in time for Thanksgiving as DXY bounces from 103.47 to 103.92 after holding just above 103.00 on Tuesday.
• Yen retreats sharply amidst Dollar revival with USD/JPY probing 149.00 from just over 148.00 via a Fib and alongside decent expiry interest.
• Aussie underpinned by more hawkish RBA rhetoric, as AUD/USD hovers around 0.6550 and AUD/NZD cross rebounds through 1.0850.
• Pound maintains 1.2500+ status vs Greenback, but pensive pre-UK Autumn Statement.
• Euro pivots 1.0900 against backdrop of expiries ranging from the round number to 1.0945
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1254 vs exp. 7.1468 (prev. 7.1406).
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FIXED INCOME

• Debt futures volatile before firm bounce led by EGBs.
• Bunds breach prior session high between 131.55-130.88 bounds post-strong long dated German auctions and reports that Government wants to delay the 2024 budget meeting.
• Gilts and T-notes tag along within 97.45-96.74 and 109-06/108-27 respective ranges awaiting UK Autumn Statement, US durable goods data and jobless claims for the week including November NFP.
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COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent January futures are softer intraday but within recent ranges in a holiday-shortened week with price action largely moving in tandem with broader sentiment.
• Benchmarks have been oscillating just above the USD 77.00/bbl (USD 76.88-77.97/bbl range) for WTI while its Brent counterpart sits just below USD 82/bbl (vs USD 81.58-82.65/bbl range)
• Spot gold is a touch firmer on the session, as US yields slip slightly and market action remains tentative ahead of afternoon events and conscious of a possible geopolitical breakthrough.
• Base metals are dented by the USD and risk sentiment alongside reporting around China's growth target for 2024, while support for Chinese real estate has kept iron ore afloat.
• US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +9.1mln (exp. +1.2mln), Gasoline -1.8mln (exp. -0.2mln), Distillates -3.5mln (exp. -0.8mln), Cushing +0.6mln.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak says the domestic market is fully provided with fuel, and remaining export restrictions on diesel will be lifted soon. Oil market is balanced; oil prices objectively reflect the current situation and they are on quite a good level. Declines to comment when questioned if there will be changes to OPEC+.
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NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB FSR: shadow banks face the risk of receiving large margin calls or client redemptions they cannot meet because they do not have enough cash on hand, liquidity buffers at such intermediaries were "very low". Many bond funds do not have enough liquid assets to withstand 30 days of severe outflows. "Any sharp increase in sovereign bond yields or a spike in financial market volatility could expose those ICPFs which use interest rate derivatives to large margin calls,". ECB's de Guindos says they have not seen any extreme movements in bond spreads.
• German government reportedly wants to postpone Thursday's budget meeting, according to Focus citing dpa; "Without a shortening of the deadline in the Federal Council, a decision on the 2024 budget would no longer be possible before the end of the year."
• UK CBI Trends - Orders (Nov) -35.0 (Prev. -26.0)

GEOPOLITICS

• Israeli PM's office confirmed the government voted in favour of the proposed deal for the release of some hostages held in Gaza with 50 hostages, women and children to be released over four days during which there will be a pause in fighting.
• Hamas confirmed an agreement with Israel for a four-day pause in Gaza hostilities and agreed to release around 50 women and children hostages from Gaza in exchange for Israel releasing 150 Palestinian women and children from Israeli jails. Hamas added the truce deal will allow hundreds of trucks of humanitarian, medical and fuel aid to enter all parts of Gaza and said Israel committed to not attack or arrest anyone in all parts of Gaza during the truce period.
• US senior administration official said a rigorous inspection regime will ensure Hamas does not use the pause in fighting to get more weaponry, while the US hopes the pause will also be observed by Hezbollah and Israeli forces in northern Israel.
• Senior Hamas figure Musa Abu Marzouq says the truce will begin tomorrow at 10:00 A.M (08:00GMT), according to Walla News' Elster.
• US Central Command said the US carried out precision strikes against two facilities in Iraq in response to an attack on US troops.
• UN Secretary-General strongly condemned North Korea's satellite launch and called for North Korea to fully comply with UN resolutions and return to dialogue, while the South Korean National Security Council condemned North Korea's launch as a violation of UN sanctions

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is a touch softer on the session, with action thus far very much USD driven with newsflow otherwise relatively quiet.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded mixed following the weak handover from the US where sentiment was dampened amid soft data and pre-Thanksgiving positioning, while the latest FOMC minutes were uneventful and had little effect on price action. Furthermore, participants digested the latest geopolitical developments including North Korea’s satellite launch and the agreement between Israel and Hamas for a four-day pause of the fighting in Gaza and a hostages-prisoners swap.
• ASX 200 was rangebound as losses in tech and consumer sectors were counterbalanced by resilience in defensives, while Westpac Leading Index also showed a slight contraction.
• Nikkei 225 was the outperformer and clawed back initial losses in an early turnaround despite the government cutting its view on the overall economy for the first time since January.
• KOSPI was pressured following the satellite launch by North Korea which plans to launch additional spy satellites.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were cautious with price action rangebound amid a lack of fresh macro drivers from China although the Hong Kong benchmark was cushioned by strength in Baidu post-earnings.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Chinese government advisers are to recommend a 4.5%-5.5% growth target for 2024, while they noted that maintaining China's growth pace next year requires more fiscal stimulus, according to sources via Reuters.
• Japan cut its view on the overall economy for the first time since January and stated that the overall economy is recovering moderately but some areas recently stalled, while it cut its view on capital spending for the first time since December 2021 and stated the pace of pickup in capital spending is pausing.
• Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) has been placed on the draft list of firms to support by China, via Bloomberg.
• RBA Governor Bullock says the remaining inflation challenge we are dealing with is increasingly homegrown and demand-driven; reiterates more substantial monetary policy tightening is the right response. prices are rising strongly for the majority of the goods and services we all consume. Liaison with firms indicates that domestic cost pressure are proving persistent; also hear that capacity utilisation is very high and economic demand for the year has been stronger than expected.

DATA RECAP

• Singapore GDP QQ (Q3 F) 1.4% vs Exp. 1.1% (Prelim. 1.0%); YY 1.1% vs Exp. 0.8% (Prelim. 0.7%)