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Europe Market Open: Mixed/subdued trade into quarter-end; data, speakers & supply due

  • APAC stocks traded mixed after the subdued handover from Wall St heading into quarter-end and Easter.
  • European equity futures indicate a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed up 0.4% on Tuesday.
  • DXY is a touch firmer on a 104 handle, USD/JPY printed a fresh 33yr high, FX markets are otherwise contained.
  • BoJ's Tamura said that based on the current economic and price outlook, the BoJ is likely to maintain accommodative monetary conditions for the time being.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish CPI, Retail Sales, EZ Business Sentiment, Riksbank & SARB Policy Announcement, BoJ SOO, Comments from ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson & Fed's Waller, Supply from Italy, Germany & US.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

  • US stocks finished the session in the red after late selling and with the declines led by underperformance in Utilities, Energy and Tech, while price action had earlier been choppy following a mixed set of data releases. T-notes also saw two-way price action with initial pressure in response to the stronger-than-expected Durable Goods data before gradually reversing which was facilitated by a strong 5yr auction.
  • SPX -0.28% at 5,203, NDX -0.36% at 18,210, DJIA -0.08% at 39,282, RUT -0.19% at 2,070.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • S&P said the outlooks on five US regional banks were revised to negative from stable on commercial real estate risks although their ratings were affirmed, while the banks mentioned were First Commonwealth Financial Corp, M&T Bank Corp, Synovus Financial Corp, Trustmark Corp and Valley National Bancorp.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded mixed after the subdued handover from Wall St heading into quarter-end and Easter.
  • ASX 200 was underpinned by strength in the top-weighted financials and consumer-related sectors, while data also provided a tailwind after an improved leading index and softer-than-expected monthly CPI.
  • Nikkei 225 outperformed as the yen fell to a 33-year low amid dovish-leaning BoJ comments.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. declined amid a slew of earnings and weakness in tech with Alibaba pressured after it withdrew its Cainiao IPO application, while the mainland failed to benefit from the PBoC's firm liquidity operation and improved Industrial Profits.
  • US equity futures (ES +0.3%) clawed back some of the losses seen from yesterday's late Wall St selling.
  • European equity futures indicate a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed up 0.4% on Tuesday.

FX

  • DXY remained afloat as the greenback made further headway against Asia-Pac counterparts.
  • EUR/USD is steady on a 1.08 handle.
  • GBP/USD trickled lower following yesterday's intraday pullback and homes in on the 1.2600 level.
  • USD/JPY printed a fresh 33-year high of 151.97 after dovish-leaning comments from BoJ's Tamura which then triggered jawboning from Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki and saw some of the removes reversed.
  • Antipodeans were influenced again by the PBoC's reference rate setting with CNY pressured after a relatively stable but slightly softer-than-previous fix, while there were also mild headwinds following softer-than-expected monthly Australian CPI.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0946 vs exp. 7.2250 (prev. 7.0943).

FIXED INCOME

  • 10-year UST futures were rangebound after the prior day's fluctuations owing to strong Durable Goods data and a solid 5yr auction.
  • Bund futures were mildly underpinned and looked to retest the 133.00 level after recent ECB rhetoric.
  • 10-year JGB futures edged higher following the more dovish-leaning comments from BoJ's Tamura and after a stronger 40yr auction.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude futures were pressured after yesterday's choppy performance and bearish private sector inventory data.
  • US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +9.4mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -4.4mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate +0.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Cushing +2.4mln.
  • Spot gold was contained after recent whipsawing and with upside restricted by mild dollar strength.
  • Copper futures retreated beneath the USD 4.00/lb level amid the risk-averse mood in China.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin was kept afloat in choppy trade and ultimately held above the USD 70,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC Governor Pan said bilateral currency swaps help enhance financial safety nets and that China is willing to deepen financial cooperation with other countries, according to Reuters.
  • USTR office said the US mission to WTO received a consultation request from China regarding parts of the Inflation Reduction Act and the US is reviewing the request, according to Reuters.
  • US President Biden's administration is pursuing TikTok with the FTC investigating the Co. over allegedly faulty privacy and data security practices, according to POLITICO.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda said Japanese households' sentiment indices are improving recently on expectations of wage hikes, while he added that based on current economic and price projections, accommodative financial conditions are expected to continue for the time being and reiterated they are ready to nimbly conduct bond buying operation if long-term rates rise sharply.
  • BoJ's Tamura said that based on the current economic and price outlook, the BoJ is likely to maintain accommodative monetary conditions for the time being and they will guide monetary policy appropriately in accordance with economic, price, and financial developments. Tamura stated that they are not there yet to allow market forces to fully drive long-term interest rate moves and the positive wage-inflation cycle is likely to continue, while he added that future monetary policy guidance is very important to ensure BoJ moves slowly but steadily toward policy normalisation. Furthermore, Tamura said promising to continue with accommodative monetary policy won't necessarily conflict with the need to raise interest rates.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki says closely watching FX moves and won't rule out any steps including decisive steps to respond to a disorderly FX move, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese Industrial Profit YTD YY (Feb) +10.2% (Prev. -2.3%)
  • Australian Weighted CPI YY (Feb) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.4%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE-EAST

  • Israeli official said hostage talks with Hamas are at a dead end and that Israeli negotiators packed up and left Doha.
  • White House said National Security Advisor Sullivan and Israeli Defence Minister Gallant had a productive meeting. It was later that Israel's Defence Minister Gallant stressed the importance of US ties and maintaining Israel’s military edge in the region including air capabilities, while they discussed the hostages held in Gaza, humanitarian aid efforts, and how Israel plans to destroy Hamas.
  • At least seven people were killed in an Israeli strike on southern Lebanon, according to two security sources cited by Reuters.
  • Houthis warned that Saudi Arabia would be a target if it backs US-UK strikes, according to Energy Intel's Bakr.

OTHER

  • China State Council Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson said some individuals in the US have ulterior motives and are continuously fabricating so-called "timelines" and hyping up the mainland's "military threat" which is creating an atmosphere of war across the Taiwan Straits, while the spokesperson urged the US to stop fanning the flames and take concrete actions in adhering to the one-China principle, according to Global Times

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • ECB's Kazaks said inflation is slowing and the first rate cut is nearing, while he doesn't object to the market view of a June rate cut and said they will lower rates cautiously step by step and must see how the economy reacts to policy easing.

DATA RECAP

  • UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Mar) 42 (Prev. 42)
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