• European equities are mixed while US equity futures are entirely in the green
• Dollar is flat, CHF bid after hotter inflation metrics, USD/JPY higher and at 155.20
• USTs softer but relatively contained in the fall-out of the FOMC; Bunds are higher and playing catch up
• Crude is incrementally firmer, XAU is softer and base metals are mixed
• Looking ahead, US Challenger Layoffs, International Trade, IJC, CNB Policy Announcement, ECB’s Lane, BoC's Macklem & Rogers. Earnings from Apple, Moody's, ConocoPhillips, Becton Dickinson, Amgen, Moderna, Motorola, Zoetis, Booking, Cigna, Cardinal Health & Peloton

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.2%) are mixed, unable to significantly benefit from the FOMC and mostly positive APAC trade overnight. Price action has been fairly contained around session lows.
• European sectors are mixed; Banks have been lifted following post-earnings strength in Standard Chartered (+5.9%) and ING (+5.5%). Energy is the clear laggard amid broader weakness in the crude complex, whilst Tech lags.
• US Equity Futures (ES +0.5%, NQ +0.7%, RTY +1.1%) are entirely in the green, though very much off post-FOMC peaks. In terms of individual movers, Qualcomm (+4.1%) gains pre-market after beating on top/bottom line.
• Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including notable earnings/updates from: Shell, Maersk, Novo Nordisk and more.
• Click here for more details.

FX

• DXY is flat after yesterday's wild ride which saw the index sold in the wake of the FOMC before being dealt another hammer blow following touted JPY intervention. DXY went as low as 105.43 before staging a marginal recovery, but is yet to reapproach 106. Price action today has been confined to a 105.55-85 range.
• EUR/USD is holding onto 1.07 status and respecting yesterday's 1.0649-1.0732 range, with the 200DMA currently bang on the 1.07 mark.
• Yet more erratic price action for USD/JPY after the pair dropped aggressively late in the US session amid suspected FX intervention (according to Reuters calculations). The pair fell from circa 157.50 to a low around the 153 mark. However, has since pared around half the move, and currently sits around 155.20.
• CHF is top of the leaderboard following firmer-than-expected Swiss inflation metrics. USD/CHF has subsequently been dragged lower from a 0.9173 peak to a 0.9101 tough.
• Click here for more details.
• Click here for OpEx for today's NY Cut

FIXED INCOME

• USTs in the red but action more modest than the marked two-way moves seen around the FOMC. Where the headline message was more hawkish than the last gathering but not unexpectedly so. Currently, USTs in a sub-20 tick range at 114-23.
• Bunds are catching up from Wednesday's market holiday. The resumption of trade overnight was a choppy one, but since the benchmark has been grinding higher as it reacts to the FOMC. Bunds top out at 130.67, 30 ticks shy of Tuesday's best and a couple more from the 130.98 WTD peak.
• Gilts are firmer despite a lack of specific action as pricing for the BoE, which has been clear on its policy roadmap recently despite dissent, reacts to the net-dovish reaction to the Fed. Gilts gapped higher by 50 ticks to 96.05 and despite a brief foray to a 96.31 WTD peak, just shy of last week's 33 best.
• France sells EUR 11.926bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12bln 3.50% 2033, 1.25% 2034, 2.50% 2043, and 3.25% 2055 OAT:
• Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

• Upward bias across the crude complex, but more so an attempted recovery after futures settled almost USD 3/bbl lower with steep losses on Wednesday amid a surprise EIA crude build coupled with ongoing ceasefire talks. Brent July within a 83.51-84.24/bbl range.
• Mostly softer trade across precious metals in a continuation of the post-Powell unwind with newsflow this morning on the lighter side. XAU trimmed some of yesterday's move, which saw prices shoot higher from USD 2,281.68/oz to USD 2,328.43/oz.
• Base metals are mostly trading with modest gains with price action choppy as news flow remains thin ahead of US IJC later and NFP tomorrow, whilst APAC trade lacked a firm direction amid the absence of Chinese markets for the rest of the week.
• Shell (SHEL LN) CFO says they continue to see crude oil market tightening in H2 this year; Co. sees an uptick in LNG demand in South Asia
• Ukrainian drones damaged energy infrastructure and caused power cuts in Russia's central Oryol region, while it was separately reported that Ukrainian drones tried to attack energy infrastructure in Russia's Smolensk region.
• Click here for more details.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• OECD Growth Forecasts: Fed seen cutting rates from Q3 to 3.75-4.00% by end-2025; ECB seen cutting from Q3 to 2.5% by end-2025. Global 2024: 3.1% (prev. 2.9%). 2025: 3.2% (prev. 3%). US 2024: 2.6% (prev. 2.1%). 2025: 1.8% (prev. 1.7%). EZ 2024: 0.7% (prev. 0.6%). 2025: 1.0% (prev. 1.2%) UK 2024: 0.4% (prev. 0.7%). 2025: 1.0% (prev. 1.2%).

DATA RECAP

• Swiss CPI YY (Apr) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.0%); Core 1.2% (prev. 1.0%). MM 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.1%
• Spanish HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 52.2 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 51.4)
• German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 42.5 vs. Exp. 42.2 (Prev. 42.2)
• French HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 45.3 vs. Exp. 44.9 (Prev. 44.9)
• Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 47.3 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 50.4)
• EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Apr) 45.7 vs. Exp. 45.6 (Prev. 45.6)
• Italian Producer Prices YY (Mar) -9.6% (Prev. -10.8%); Producer Prices MM (Mar) -0.2% (Prev. -1.0%)

EARNINGS

• Qualcomm (QCOM) Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.44 (exp. 2.32), Revenue 9.39bln (exp. 9.34bln). QCT revenue USD 8.03bln (exp. 8.01bln). Internet of Things revenue USD 1.24bln (exp. 1.25bln). Guides Q3 Adj. EPS USD 2.15-2.35 (exp. 2.16). Guides Q3 rev. USD 8.8bln-9.6bln (exp. 9.08bln). +4.70% in pre-market trade
• DoorDash (DASH) Reported Q1 EPS of -0.06 (exp. -0.04), Q1 revenue of USD 2.51bln (exp. 2.45bln); Q1 total orders +21% to 620mln (exp. 608mln), Q1 adj. EBITDA USD 371mln (exp. 368.5mln).-12.70% in pre-market trade
• Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) Q1 (DKK): Sales 65.35bln (exp. 63.2bln), Wegovy sales 9.38bln (exp. 10.55bln), Total GLP-1 34.98bln (exp. 34.78bln, prev. 26.7bln), Ozempic 27.8bln (prev. 19.6bln). Click here for more.
• Shell (SHEL LN) Q1 (USD): Total Revenue 74.4bln (exp. 89.9bln), adj. EBITDA 18.71bln (exp. 16.82bln), adj. EPS 1.20 (exp. 1.09), Net Income 7.4bln (exp. 6.5bln), FCF 9.8bln. New share buyback programme of USD 3.5bln. Click here for more.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) Q1 (USD): Revenue 12.36bln (exp. 12.26bln). EBIT 177mln (exp. 165.4mln). EBITDA 1.59bln (exp 1.56bln). Ocean Revenue 8.01bln (exp. 7.57bln). Sees FY global container trade at the high end of +2.5-4.5% range. Click here for more.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US reportedly discussed finalising bank capital rules as soon as August, while the Fed, FDIC, and OCC won't completely redo the July 2023 proposal, according to Bloomberg.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• "Senior Egyptian official told local media that there is 'positive progress' in the the truce negotiations between Israel and Hamis amid 'extensive Egyptian contacts with all parties'. Hamas has not responded yet on the latest proposal", via Walla News
• "Israel Broadcasting Corporation: Pessimism in Israel about the possibility of reaching an agreement to release hostages", according to Sky News Arabia.
• US Secretary of State Blinken said Israel has made very important compromises over the proposal for the hostage deal, while he added they have seen real and meaningful progress in recent weeks.
• Hamas official reportedly expressed opposition to latest hostage deal offer, but the group said talks continue, according to the Times of Israel via social media platform X.

OTHER

• US, UK and Canadian cybersecurity agencies warned that pro-Russian “hacktivists” are attempting to compromise computer networks for critical industrial sectors of the economy in North America and Europe, according to Bloomberg.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin finds some reprieve following the FOMC, and currently sits just under USD 58k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded mostly positive but with the upside for most bourses limited as the region reflected on the recent FOMC meeting and suspected Japanese currency intervention.
• ASX 200 was led higher by gold miners, financials and tech which benefitted from softer yields, while participants also digested earnings releases including from NAB and Woolworths.
• Nikkei 225 clawed back opening losses and returned to flat territory as effects of suspected intervention subsided.
• Hang Seng outperformed on return from the holiday closure despite the continued absence of mainland participants and Stock Connect flows with developers helped after China's Politburo pledged efforts to support the property sector, while tech rallied as the unlikelihood of a US rate hike also bodes well for Hong Kong stocks given the HKMA's requisite to move in lock-step with the Fed.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• HKMA maintained its base rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected and in lock-step with the Fed.
• Senate Democrats reportedly urge the Biden administration to raise tariffs on China and warned that any cuts to Trump-era duties could hurt US workers, according to Politico.
• BoJ March Meeting Minutes stated many members shared the view long-term rates should be set by markets and a few members said the BoJ should at some point in the future reduce bond buying amount and shrink its bond holdings, while a few members said the BoJ's March move is different from the monetary tightening phase experienced in US and Europe. Furthermore, one member said the impact of the rise in short-term rate to around 0.1% will likely be limited and one member said BoJ should slowly but steadily move towards policy normalisation with an eye on economic and price developments.
• RBNZ's Deputy Governor Hawkesby said the economy is evolving largely as they expected, while mortgage arrears have risen and are not projected to rise as far as they were, according to Reuters.
• Japan's Top Currency Diplomat Kanda says cannot overlook excessive FX moves having a major impact on Japan's economy, via JiJi; No comment on FX intervention.
• BoJ data suggested Japanese FX intervention on May 1st, according to Reuters; may have spent JPY 3.26-3.66tln

APAC DATA RECAP

• Australian Building Approvals MM (Mar) 1.9% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. -1.9%, Rev. -0.9%)
• Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Mar) 5.0B vs. Exp. 7.3B (Prev. 7.3B)
• Australian Goods/Services Exports (Mar) 0.10% (Prev. -2.20%); Imports (Mar) 4.20% (Prev. 4.80%)