• APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance stateside for most of the session after tariff-related confusion and NVIDIA's earnings.
• US equity futures eked slight gains in predominantly uneventful trade but were indecisive and immediately fluctuated post-NVIDIA (-1.5% aftermarket) earnings despite the AI darling beating on top and bottom lines.
• White House still plans to implement 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico next week, at least for now — despite comments from US President Trump that raised hopes of another delay, according to Axios.
• US President Trump said he will be announcing tariffs on the EU very soon and that the EU can try to retaliate on tariffs, as well as noted that EU tariffs are to be 25% on autos and other things.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.5% on Wednesday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include French Producer Prices, Spanish CPI, Germany Unemployment, EZ Sentiment, US Durable Goods, GDP 2nd Estimate (Q4), Core PCE Prices (Q4), Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI, Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, Speakers include Fed’s Barkin, Schmid, Barr, Bowman, Hammack & Harker, Supply from Italy & UK, Earnings from Vistra Energy, Norwegian Cruise Line, Dell, Swiss Re, AXA, Technip Energies, Ocado, Aviva, Rolls Royce, Taylor Wimpey, Beiersdorf & Eni.

SNAPSHOT

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include French Producer Prices, Spanish CPI, Germany Unemployment, EZ Sentiment, US Durable Goods, GDP 2nd Estimate (Q4), Core PCE Prices (Q4), Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI, Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, Speakers include Fed’s Barkin, Schmid, Barr, Bowman, Hammack & Harker, Supply from Italy & UK, Earnings from Vistra Energy, Norwegian Cruise Line, Dell, Swiss Re, AXA, Technip Energies, Ocado, Aviva, Rolls Royce, Taylor Wimpey, Beiersdorf & Eni.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks finished mixed with price action choppy on the day amid a lack of major fresh catalysts and as attention centred on US President Trump's tariff rhetoric, while participants also braced for NVIDIA's earnings which beat on top and bottom lines but triggered an indecisive reaction after-hours.
• SPX +0.01% at 5,956, NDX +0.22% at 21,133, DJI -0.43% at 43,433, RUT +0.19% at 2,174.
• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) Q4 24 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.89 (exp. 0.83), Revenue 39.33bln (exp. 37.61bln), shares fell 1.5% after-market.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said they are not stopping the tariffs and tariffs will go on, not all but a lot of them, while he also stated that Canada and Mexico tariffs go into effect on "April 2nd" and that they don't need Canada's lumber. Furthermore, Trump said he will be announcing tariffs on the EU very soon and that the EU can try to retaliate on tariffs, as well as noted that EU tariffs are to be 25% on autos and other things.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick clarified if President Trump is satisfied by the March 4th deadline (in relation to tariffs in response to fentanyl and border security), President Trump could pause fentanyl and border-related tariffs, but global tariffs still come into effect on April 2nd.
• White House still plans to implement 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico next week, at least for now — despite comments from US President Trump that raised hopes of another delay, according to Axios.
• Mexico’s Deputy Foreign Trade Minister said Mexico is working with US officials to reach an agreement on tariffs before the deadline and US officials are recognising Mexico’s efforts in addressing illegal drugs and migration.
• EU will react 'firmly and immediately' to US tariff, according to AFP citing a European Commission source.
• EU's trade chief Sefcovic intends to visit China at the end of March, according to SCMP.
• US President Trump will hold a press conference with UK PM Starmer on Thursday at 14:00EST/19:00GMT.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed's Bostic (2027 voter) said inflation is high, but they have seen a lot of progress and his outlook is for inflation to continue on the path to 2%, while they need more data to see if January inflation is a bump or a trend. Bostic also commented that the Fed needs to stay where it is and see how the world evolves, as well as stated that Fed policy is restrictive and needs to stay restrictive.
• US President Trump said they want a balanced budget in a reasonably short period of time, maybe by next year or the year after. Trump also said he will be talking to cabinet secretaries to do their own dirge of federal workers and that DOGE is cutting down the government which he suggested was bloated and sloppy.
• US President Trump issued an executive order to implement DOGE's government efficiency initiative which deals with federal spending on contracts, grants, and loans, according to the White House.
• Elon Musk said the overall DOGE goal is to address the deficit and if they do not cut spending, America will go bankrupt, while he added they need to move quickly to achieve a trillion-dollar deficit reduction.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance stateside for most of the session after tariff-related confusion and NVIDIA's earnings.
• ASX 200 edged mild gains amid outperformance in Consumer Staples following earnings from supermarket heavyweight Coles but with the upside limited amid losses in tech and after disappointing capex data.
• Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses amid a quiet calendar and choppy currency, while Seven & I Holdings was the worst performer after the founding family's management buyout fell through.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially pressured as trade frictions remain in the spotlight with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick recently commenting that China is his biggest concern and that they will prevent Chinese vehicles from entering the US market, while it was also reported that China is putting the breaks on US stock listings for domestic companies.
• US equity futures eked slight gains in predominantly uneventful trade but were indecisive and immediately fluctuated post-NVIDIA earnings despite the AI darling beating on top and bottom lines.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.5% on Wednesday.

FX

• DXY traded firmer after spending the prior day clawing back recent losses and with Trump's tariff talk the main highlight after he appeared to push back the Canada and Mexico tariff dates as he responded "April 2nd, that's for everything" when asked when tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect. However, Commerce Secretary Lutnick immediately clarified that if Trump is satisfied by the March 4th deadline, he could pause fentanyl/border-related tariffs and noted global tariffs will still take effect on April 2nd, while the White House also confirmed it still plans to implement 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week.
• EUR/USD was pressured after failing to sustain the 1.0500 status, while US President Trump stated he will be announcing tariffs on the EU very soon and that EU tariffs are to be 25% on autos and other things.
• GBP/USD continued to soften after returning from a brief foray above the 1.2700 level with demand contained amid light UK-specific catalysts and ahead of UK PM Starmer's meeting with US President Trump at the White House later.
• USD/JPY remained choppy and traded both sides of the 149.00 level amid a quiet calendar and the mixed risk sentiment.
• Antipodeans gradually declined to their weakest in almost two weeks amid the flimsy risk environment, while there were muted reactions to the mixed New Zealand business survey and mostly weaker Australian capex data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1740 vs exp. 7.2561 (prev. 7.1732).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures pulled back from a YTD peak after yesterday's which were assisted by a strong 7yr auction.
• Bund futures marginally extended on recent gains but with upside capped by resistance ahead of the 133.00 level.
• 10yr JGB futures retreated further beneath the 140.00 level amid a lack of fresh catalysts and a weak 2yr JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures attempted to nurse some losses after declining yesterday in choppy trade amid mixed inventories and with some support seen after President Trump announced to reverse concessions Biden gave to Venezuela's Maduro in their oil deal.
• US President Trump announced on Truth Social to reverse concessions former President Biden gave to Venezuela's Maduro on an oil deal and stated the “Concession Agreement” is being terminated as of the March 1st option to renew.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said he is providing foreign policy guidance to revoke all Biden-era oil and gas licenses that have funded Venezuela’s Maduro regime.
• Iraq’s government reached an agreement with Kurdistan to restart oil exports, according to Iraq News Agency.
• Spot gold trickled lower amid a firmer dollar and reapproached yesterday's trough beneath the USD 2,900/oz level.
• Copper futures were subdued after wiping out this week's gains and with demand not helped by the mixed risk appetite.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin rebounded overnight and climbed back above the USD 85,000 level but has far to go to recover from the double-digit percentage slump it suffered so far this week.
• FBI said North Korea was responsible for the theft of approximately USD 1.5bln in virtual assets from Bybit.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• TikTok and ByteDance are still opposed to a sale and are in talks with the Trump administration on a deal that would allow US backers to own a larger share of the company.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Capital Expenditure (Q4) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.1%)
• Australian Private Capital Expenditure for 2025-26 (AUD)(Estimate 1) 148.0B
• Australian Private Capital Expenditure for 2024-25 (AUD)(Estimate 5) 183.4B (Prev. 178.2B)
• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Feb) 58.4 (Prev. 54.4)
• New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook (Feb) 45.1 (Prev. 45.8)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• The bodies of four Israeli hostages have been transferred to Israel and a Hamas source stated that 97 Palestinian prisoners have been transferred to Egypt. Hamas also said it adheres to the Gaza ceasefire agreement and is ready for discussions on the second phase, while it added suggested the release of the remaining hostages depends on commitment to the ceasefire terms.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said they will be partnering with Ukraine on rare earth and will not be making security guarantees but Europe will. Trump added the US needs rare earths and Ukraine has great ones, while he also stated that Ukrainian President Zelensky is coming to sign the deal.
• US President Trump said he thinks they will have a deal with Russian President Putin and noted that Putin had no intention of settling the Ukraine war, while Trump added that Putin will have to make concessions and he believes the Ukraine war will come to an end.

OTHER

• US President Trump would not comment on whether China should not take Taiwan by force and said he has a great relationship with Chinese President Xi and wants China to invest in the US, while Trump added he will have a good relationship with China and the US will invest in China.