• US President Trump clarified that there will be a 10+10 tariff on China for a total of 20% additional tariffs and that the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to go into effect on March 4th.
• US stocks closed notably in the red with the Nasdaq 100 (-2.8%) the clear laggard as the Technology sector was heavily pressured alongside significant losses in NVIDIA (-8.6%).
• APAC stocks declined with heavy pressure seen at month-end following the sell-off on Wall St with global risk sentiment hit by tariff threats and following a slump in NVIDIA shares post-earnings.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.1% after the cash market finished with losses of 1.0% on Thursday.
• Bitcoin continued its slump and dipped under USD 80,000 after falling more than 25% from its record high.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, CPI & Unemployment, French/Italian CPI, US PCE & Dallas Fed, Canadian GDP, ECB SCE, Comments from BoE’s Ramsden, Earnings from Fubo, Holcim, BASF, Allianz & Rightmove, Credit Reviews for Germany & France.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks closed notably in the red with the Nasdaq 100 (-2.8%) the clear laggard as the Technology sector was heavily pressured alongside significant losses in NVIDIA (-8.6%) post-earnings, while risk sentiment was also weighed on by the latest tariff remarks after President Trump clarified that there will be a 10+10 tariff on China for a total of 20% additional tariffs and that the proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to go into effect on March 4th.
• SPX -1.59% at 5,862, NDX -2.75% at 20,551, DJI -0.45% at 43,240, RUT -1.59% at 2,140.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said there will be an additional 10% tariff on China and clarified that there will be a 10+10 tariff on China for 20%, while he stated they are not seeing progress on drugs coming into the country and that Canada should be apprehending much more fentanyl. Trump also criticised EU VAT taxes and said he doesn’t like the way the EU is treating US companies, as well as noted they are going to have reciprocal tariffs and responded will have to take a look when asked if there will be sanctions on the UK.
• US President Trump said UK PM Starmer is a tough negotiator and that the US and UK have a special relationship, while he added that meetings with UK PM Starmer were tremendously productive and they are going to have a deal done on trade with the UK rather quickly.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he's open to the idea that other countries' tariffs could come down or go away, while it was separately reported that South Korea’s Acting President Choi and US Treasury Secretary Bessent discussed tariffs, investment, and forex policy in a video call, according to South Korea’s finance ministry.
• China's MOFCOM said China opposes US President Trump's latest tariffs on Chinese goods and hopes the US will avoid making the same mistake again and return to the right track of properly resolving differences through dialogue as soon as possible. Furthermore, it stated if the US insists on its own path, China will take all necessary countermeasures to defend its legitimate rights and interests.
• Canadian PM Trudeau said they will have an immediate and extremely strong response if the US imposes tariffs next Tuesday.
• Mexico's Deputy Economy Minister said Mexico is analysing other measures, after imposing tariffs on low-cost imports.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed's Hammack (2026 voter) said the Fed is likely to hold rates steady 'for some time' and seeks evidence inflation moving to 2% inflation before supporting more cuts, while she added that Fed rate policy may be close to neutral right now. Hammack said monetary policy has the ‘luxury of being patient’ right now and patient policy will also allow the Fed to monitor the jobs market, as well as noted that Fed policy does not appear ‘meaningfully restrictive’.
• Fed's Harker (2026 voter) said the policy rate remains restrictive enough to continue putting downward pressure on inflation. Harker also commented that he was on the fence in December between thinking one or two rate cuts were appropriate this year and right now, there is a lot of uncertainty and he's in the let's stay where they are for now camp.
• US President Trump said on Truth that they are working very hard with the House and Senate to pass a clean, temporary government funding bill. Trump also announced he nominated Paul Dabbar to be the US Deputy Secretary of Commerce.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks declined with heavy pressure seen at month-end following the sell-off on Wall St with global risk sentiment hit by tariff threats and following a slump in NVIDIA shares post-earnings.
• ASX 200 was pressured with nearly all sectors in the red and the declines led by underperformance in miners and tech.
• Nikkei 225 slumped from the open and briefly dipped below the 37,000 level with the index down by more than a thousand points amid tech-related selling, while there were mixed data releases from Japan including softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI, a miss on Retail Sales and a slightly narrower-than-feared contraction in Industrial Production.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad downbeat mood amid trade-related frictions after US President Trump announced that an additional 10% of tariffs on China is set to take effect on March 4th which is on top of the 10% tariffs the US had previously imposed earlier this month. Nonetheless, the losses in the mainland were somewhat cushioned in early trade ahead of next week’s annual ”Two Sessions” in Beijing, where markets will be hoping for fiscal stimulus.
• US equity futures languished at the prior day’s lows after the S&P 500 turned negative for the year but with further downside limited overnight as participants awaited PCE data.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.1% after the cash market finished with losses of 1.0% on Thursday.

FX

• DXY took a breather after strengthening yesterday as the threat of US tariffs continued to be felt by markets with President Trump noting that the proposed Canada and Mexico tariffs are scheduled to take effect on March 4th and China will be charged an additional 10% tariff to lift the total additional tariffs on China to 20%. The attention now turns to the incoming PCE data which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
• EUR/USD marginally extended on recent losses after suffering against the firmer buck and amid the looming tariff threat with US President Trump reiterating criticism and tariff threats against the EU.
• GBP/USD remained subdued and trickled back beneath the 1.2600 handle but with the downside stemmed as the UK is seen to have less exposure to US tariffs than peers, while US President Trump said they are going to have a deal done on trade with the UK rather quickly and that UK PM Starmer tried to convince him not to impose tariffs on the UK during their meeting.
• USD/JPY mildly declined amid haven flows into the Japanese currency but saw two-way price action with a brief surge triggered by softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data.
• Antipodeans continued the recent downward trend amid the risk-off mood and the US tariff threat.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1738 vs exp. 7.2873 (prev. 7.1740).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures extended on the prior day’s late rebound amid a flight to safety owing to the stock market rout.
• Bund futures benefitted from haven demand and returned to above the 133.00 level, while participants now look ahead to German Retail Sales and CPI data.
• 10yr JGB futures tracked the gains in global counterparts following mixed data releases, including the softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI data for February, which provides a leading indicator of national price trends.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were marginally lower but held on to most of the prior day’s gains after advancing amid Trump tariff rhetoric and reports that OPEC+ is hesitant to go ahead with the planned April oil output hike.
• OPEC+ is hesitant to go ahead with the planned April oil output hike due to uncertainty over sanctions and tariffs, according to Reuters sources. Furthermore, it was stated that Russia and UAE would like to proceed with the April oil output hike and other members including Saudi Arabia favour a delay.
• Spot gold remained lacklustre after it recently slipped beneath the key USD 2,900/oz level.
• Copper futures retreated amid the sell-off in stock markets and as its largest buyer, China, faces additional US tariffs.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin continued its slump and dipped under USD 80,000 after falling more than 25% from its record high.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China's Politburo said it will implement a more proactive macro policy, expand domestic demand and will stabilise the housing market and stock market. Furthermore, it will also prevent and resolve risks and external shocks in key areas, as well as promote the sustained recovery of the economy.
• China's state planner issued measures on promoting high-quality inclusive elderly care services and will leverage central budget investment to boost the construction of affordable elderly care facilities.
• BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said there is no change to the stance on short-term policy rate or JGB taper despite recent yield moves, and JGB yields fluctuate depending on market views on the economy, prices, and overseas developments. Uchida added the BoJ guides monetary policy towards achieving price stability not to monetise government debt.
• Japan is to crack down on the booming market for JGB-backed loans, according to Bloomberg.

DATA RECAP

• Tokyo CPI YY (Feb) 2.9% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.4%)
• Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Feb) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.5%)
• Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Feb) 1.9% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 1.9%)
• Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Jan P) -1.1% vs. Exp. -1.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
• Japanese Retail Sales YY (Jan) 3.9% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.5%)

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said they can get a peace deal on Ukraine. Trump also said that having the rare earth deal will be a backstop for Ukraine and that they are very well advanced on the deal but not done yet and have had very good talks with Russia and Ukraine. Furthermore, he said Russia has been acting very well and is well advanced on a peace deal and responded "Did I say that?" when asked if he still believed Ukraine President Zelensky is a dictator.
• US President Trump said they are working very hard to get the war in Ukraine to end and are moving along rapidly, as well as noted that the US will be a major partner in developing Ukraine's oil and gas. Trump said he discussed a ceasefire with UK PM Starmer and will meet Ukrainian President Zelensky at 11:00 EST on Friday, while UK PM Starmer said the UK is ready to put boots on the ground and planes in the air to sort out a Ukraine peace deal.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Ukraine critical minerals deal is done with no more negotiation and the Ukraine deal covers critical minerals, oil and gas, and infrastructure assets, while he added the Ukraine deal shows American people that their money has not been squandered.
• NATO Chief Rutte said allies to Ukraine are preparing billions more in aid and contributions to security guarantees.

OTHER

• US State Department said following an agreement between Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to initiate talks, delegations from both countries met on February 27th in Istanbul, while the US raised concerns with Russia regarding access to banking and contracted services, and the need to ensure stable staffing levels at the embassy in Moscow. Furthermore, both Russia and the US identified concrete initial steps to stabilise bilateral mission operations and Deputy Assistant Secretary Coulter and Ambassador Darchiyev agreed to hold a follow-up meeting in the near term.
• North Korea said it test-fired a strategic cruise missile to test nuclear deterrence, while leader Kim said attack capability ensures deterrence and ordered readiness with nuclear forces, according to Yonhap.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is to visit China from March 17th-19th to restart the UK-China energy dialogue and meet with Chinese investors, according to sources cited by Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Feb) 49 (Prev. 37)