• US President Trump signed amendments to the Canada & Mexico tariffs; however, this failed to lift risk sentiment
• Fed's Waller says he does not see the case for a March cut and the median view of two 2025 cuts "remains reasonable"; Bostic said they need to be patient
• US futures attempted to recover off the Wall St. pressure but failed to make much ground into Payrolls, European futures point to a weak open
• DXY pressured and below 104.00, EUR above 1.08; ECB officials see an April showdown on whether to cut or not with the odds reportedly growing
• Bunds attempt to nurse some downside but remain sub-129.00, USTs firmed with yields softer across the curve
• Looking ahead, highlights include UK Halifax House Prices, German Industrial Orders, French Trade Balance, EZ Employment (Final), US NFP, Canadian Jobs, Chinese Trade Balance, White House Crypto Summit, Speakers including Fed’s Powell, Bostic, Bowman, Williams, Kugler & ECB’s Lagarde

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks closed notably lower, albeit slightly off lows, with the Nasdaq 100 the laggard as chip names were hit on a weak Marvell (MRVL) (-20%) report, while the narrative of the day surrounded the main two macro themes of tariffs and US growth concerns. There were an abundance of tariff updates including US President Trump signing an amendment to Mexico and Canada tariffs to make USMCA-compliant products exempt from levies until April 2nd, while on the data footing, a hefty rise in Challenger layoffs, with a large chunk driven by government cuts, reignited growth concerns.
• SPX -1.78% at 5,738, NDX -2.79% at 20,052, DJI -0.99% at 42,578, RUT -1.64% at 2,066.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump posted on Truth "After speaking with President Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement. This Agreement is until April 2nd". It was later reported that Trump signed the amendment to Mexico and Canada tariffs to make USMCA-compliant products exempt from levies until April 2nd.
• US President Trump said most tariffs are to start April 2nd and predominant tariffs will be reciprocal, while he said steel and aluminium tariffs will not be modified. Trump cited a little short-term interruption on tariffs and said tariffs are something the US has to do. Trump said he is not even looking at the market and noted the long-term economy is very strong. Furthermore, Trump said there is no USMCA exemption for auto tariffs next month, according to Reuters.
• White House said President Trump's exemption on 25% tariffs on most goods from Canada and Mexico is not retroactive, while officials noted that some automakers think they will need to pay 25% tariffs on three days of imports.
• Mexican President Sheinbaum said the call with US President Trump was excellent and respectful, while they will keep working together, particularly on migration and security, particularly the crossing of fentanyl into the US, and said the agreement to pause tariffs on Mexico's USMCA-compliant goods is until April 2nd. Furthermore, Sheinbaum said US President Trump at first proposed leaving tariffs and then reviewing, while she added with Mexico not charging tariffs to US imports, Trump's reciprocal tariffs shouldn't apply from April 2nd. Mexican President Sheinbaum also commented that they must revise their tariffs with China, while she added Mexico doesn't have a free trade deal with China and imports a lot from China.
• Canada's Finance Minister said Canada will delay the second wave of tariffs on CAD 125bln of US products until April 2nd.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick informed Brazilian Vice President Alckmin in a call that the US could postpone tariffs on Brazilian goods, while Alckmin believes Brazil and the US could reach a good understanding on tariffs policy through dialogue and noted the sides agreed to hold further bilateral talks in the coming days.
• US is to impose fees on any vessel entering US ports that are part of a fleet which includes vessels built or flagged in China and the US is to engage allies to impose similar measures or risk US retaliation, according to draft order.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said the abuse of fentanyl is an issue that the US has to solve and noted regarding US-China relations that if one side exerts pressure, China will resolutely counter that. Furthermore, Wang Yi said China's economy grew 5% last year despite the pressure of unilateral US sanctions.
• UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds vowed to ‘stand up’ for British steel as US tariffs loom, according to FT.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed Governor Waller (voter) said not all tariffs are passed through and policy is still restrictive, while he added the Fed can cut rates for positive and negative reasons. Waller said they are seeing some signs of softer data and have to respond to hard data, as well as noted he is waiting to see if weakness in soft data shows up in broader statistics and the Fed still needs more data to understand economic outlook. Furthermore, Waller doesn't see a case for a March rate cut but could see rate cuts after the March Fed meeting and noted the median of two cuts for 2025 remains reasonable.
• Fed's Bostic (2027 voter) said the economy is in incredible flux and hard to know where things will land, while he added that if they wait for trends to show up in national economic data before acting, they could be too late. Bostic also said he would be surprised if they get a lot of clarity on the impact of policies before late spring into summer and noted the decision at the May or June meeting will depend on how clear things get. Furthermore, he said they have to be patient and it is never good for the Fed to change course from one policy meeting to the next.
• US President Trump will sign executive orders today at 14:30EST/19:30GMT and deliver remarks at the White House Digital Assets Summit at 15:00EST/20:00GMT
• US President Trump said the CEO of CMA CGM Shipping is to invest USD 20bln in the US and is to announce a new programme for shipbuilding soon.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich this week that the US is reconsidering the ban on exporting AI chips to Israel and that developments on this matter may occur very soon, according to Jerusalem Post.
• US House Speaker Johnson aims to hold a CR vote on Tuesday and expects it will pass, while the CR text could be released as soon as Friday.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region followed suit to the losses stateside amid growth concerns, tech weakness and tariff uncertainty, while participants digested Chinese trade data and braced for US jobs data.
• ASX 200 retreated below the 8,000 level with the declines led by tech following the rout in US counterparts and with the top-weighted financial sector also suffering firm losses.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed and dipped to sub-37,000 territory in early trade with weakness in tech stocks dragging the index lower, while long-term Japanese yields continued to rise.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially bucked the trend despite the weaker-than-expected Exports and Imports data from China, while there were recent support pledges by the nation's central bank, finance and securities heads including PBoC Governor Pan who said they will study and establish new structural policy tools, as well as cut interest rates and banks’ RRR at the appropriate time. However, the benchmarks ultimately succumbed to the broader risk tone.
• US equity futures were in recovery mode following yesterday's declines that saw the Nasdaq 100 future close below its 200-day moving average for the first time in around two years, although the overnight rebound was limited with the key US jobs data on the horizon.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.7% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.6% on Thursday.

FX

• DXY gradually softened following the prior day's ultimately cautious performance amid tariff-related uncertainty and mixed labour data, while there was little lasting impact from the announcement that US President Trump reached an agreement to delay USMCA-compliant tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April 2nd and the latest Fed rhetoric was also met with a muted reaction as participants await the latest NFP report and Fed Chair Powell's comments.
• EUR/USD eked slight gains and reclaimed the 1.0800 level amid a softer dollar, while ECB sources recently noted that the current 2.5% is unlikely to be the bottom of the cycle and if the US imposed tariffs on the EU, chances of more cuts are raised, potentially starting in April.
• GBP/USD traded sideways after reverting to beneath the 1.2900 handle with price action contained amid a lack of pertinent macro drivers.
• USD/JPY traded on both sides of the 148.00 level with recent downward pressure coinciding with the risk-off mood and after reports that Japan's largest labour union is seeking a greater wage hike this year.
• Antipodeans were subdued amid the risk-off mood and as participants digested the latest trade figures from Australia and New Zealand's largest trading partner which showed a surprise contraction in exports.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1705 vs exp. 7.2406 (prev. 7.1692).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures remained afloat after whipsawing yesterday amid mixed labour market data, tariff updates and a soured risk sentiment ahead of NFP.
• Bund futures partially nursed some of this week's extensive losses but have far to go with prices languishing firmly beneath the 129.00 level.
• 10yr JGB futures recouped some of its recent lost ground but with the rebound limited amid a lack of fresh drivers and recent reports of plans for larger wage hike demands at this year's Shunto wage negotiations.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were rangebound following the indecisive performance seen during the prior US session where prices settled more-or-less flat as the complex continued to reflect on tariff uncertainty, US growth concerns, economic data and geopolitics.
• Qatar set April Marine Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.10/bbl April Land Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.85/bbl.
• Spot gold lacked conviction amid a predominantly uneventful dollar heading into the NFP jobs data.
• Copper futures were subdued amid the mostly negative risk tone and disappointing Chinese trade data.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin retreated overnight and briefly dipped beneath the USD 86,000 level with pressure after the White House crypto czar announced President Trump signed the executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve but noted it will be capitalised by forfeitures and will not involve new purchases.
• White House crypto czar David Sacks said US President Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve which will be capitalised with Bitcoin owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. Furthermore, he said the US will not sell any Bitcoin deposited into the reserve and the secretaries of Treasury and Commerce are authorised to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional Bitcoin but the government will not acquire additional assets for the stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ is seen keeping policy steady at this month's meeting, although three sources familiar with its thinking said inflationary pressures from wage gains and prolonged food price rises could prompt discussion of another hike as soon as May.
• South Korean court cancelled the arrest of South Korea President Yoon although Yoon's lawyer said he won't immediately be released as prosecutors can appeal, while the Presidential Office said it hopes Yoon will return to work soon.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Feb) 170.52B vs. Exp. 142.35B (Prev. 104.84B)
• Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Feb) 2.3% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 10.7%); Imports YY -8.4% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.0%)
• Chinese Trade Balance (CNY))(Feb) 1226.1B (Prev. 752.9B)
• Chinese Yuan-Denominated Exports (Feb) 3.0% (Prev. 10.9%); Imports (Feb) -7.3% (Prev. 1.30%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• US Special Envoy Witkoff said they feel Hamas has not been forthright with them and that the US and Israel could take action if Hamas doesn't release hostages.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will close Iran's access to the global financial system and they are going to shut down Iran's oil sectors and drone manufacturing capabilities, while he also stated that access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine and the US are to have a meaningful meeting next week and that Ukraine seeks a truce for air strikes and sea operations, while he added that Russia needs to release POWs to establish trust. Zelensky also said he will meet with the Saudi Crown Prince next week, and then the Ukraine team will remain in Saudi for a meeting with US officials.
• US President Trump said he made a lot of progress with Russia and Ukraine in the last two days and will make a decision soon on Ukraine's Temporary Protected Status, while he also said he would like to start denuclearisation talks. Furthermore, President Trump stated if NATO countries do not pay, the US will not defend.
• US presses Ukraine for a quick ceasefire to go with the minerals deal and President Trump demands a tangible path to a truce, according to Bloomberg sources.
• US Secretary of State Rubio, Special Envoy Witkoff and National Security Advisor Waltz are headed to Riyadh on Tuesday to meet with Ukrainians including the Head of Ukraine's Presidential Office Yermak, according to Fox.

OTHER

• French President Macron said he was approached all day by other EU leaders to discuss the nuclear deterrence offer and technical talks will start on nuclear deterrence with EU leaders in which he hopes to see new cooperation by the end of the first half of 2025. Furthermore, Macron said Russia reacted the way it did to his speech because what he said is true and that Putin was piqued because they know his game, while he said he will talk with Putin once it is decided it is the right time.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the international situation in 2025 remains full of challenges, while he added that China and Russia have established a new model of major-country relations and their relationship will not be disturbed by third parties. Wang also stated that Taiwan has never been a country and it never will be, as well as noted they should realise the complete 'reunification' of the motherland.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB officials see April showdown on whether to cut rates again, according to Bloomberg sources. It was separately reported that the chance of an ECB interest rate cut in April is growing and rates are still likely to fall further with 2.5% unlikely to be the bottom of the cycle, according to Reuters sources. However, four sources also stated that ECB policymakers see a growing chance of a pause in their easing cycle at their next meeting before rates come down again, once they have greater clarity about trade and fiscal policy.
• EU is to explore long-term reform of fiscal rules for defence, while it was separately reported that Spanish PM Sanchez said Spain to bring forward the timeline to reach 2% of GDP defence spending.