• US President Trump announced tariff rates for seven countries and later announced a 50% tariff for Brazil; President Trump also announced the US is to impose a 50% tariff on copper, effective August 1st.
• The EU is discussing car import quotas and export credits with the US in trade talks, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• A muted reaction was seen across markets following the FOMC minutes; FOMC Minutes stated that most saw some reduction in the Fed funds rate this year as appropriate.
• European equity futures indicate a mildly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.4% on Wednesday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI final, Norwegian CPI, Swedish GDP, US Weekly Claims, Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans, OPEC WOO, Speakers including Fed’s Musalem, Waller & Daly, ECB’s Cipollone & BoE’s Breeden, Supply from US, Earnings from Delta & Conagra Brands.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks edged higher to track the gains in their European counterparts despite peaking around the US open, with a second wind seen in the latter half of trade.
• The sectors were predominantly in the green and were led by Utilities, Communication and Technology, with NVIDIA (NVDA) responsible for some of the upside after it became the first company in history to hit the USD 4tln market cap intraday.
• SPX +0.61% at 6,263, NDX +0.72% at 22,865, DJI +0.49% at 44,458, RUT +1.07% at 2,252.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump announced tariff rates for seven countries including the Philippines which was set at 20%, while the tariff rates for Brunei and Moldova were set at 25%, and the tariff rates for Algeria, Iraq, Libya and Sri Lanka were set at 30%. President Trump later announced a 50% tariff for Brazil and to initiate a Section 301 investigation on Brazil due to its "continued attacks on the Digital Trade activities of American Companies".
• US President Trump announced to impose a 50% tariff on copper effective August 1st after receiving a robust national security assessment, while he noted that copper is necessary for semiconductors, aircraft, ships, ammunition, data centres, lithium-ion batteries, radar systems, missile defence systems, and hypersonic weapons, which the US is building many of.
• EU is discussing car import quotas and export credits with the US in trade talks, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Indonesia's Economy Minister said tariff discussions with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and US Trade Representative Greer went positively. It was later reported that Indonesia and the US agreed to intensify tariff negotiations within three weeks to achieve optimal outcomes for both parties, while negotiations cover tariffs, non-tariff barriers, digital economy and commercial partnerships, according to the Economy Ministry.
• Philippine Economic Affairs Minister said they are concerned the US decided to impose 20% tariffs on Philippine exports and officials are to fly next week for talks with US counterparts,

FOMC MINUTES

• FOMC Minutes stated that most saw some reduction in the Fed funds rate this year as appropriate and a couple said they would be open to considering a cut as soon as July if data evolved as they expected. However, some saw the most likely appropriate path would involve no rate cuts in 2025, while those participants cited recent elevated inflation readings, elevated business and consumer inflation expectations, and ongoing economic resilience. Furthermore, several said the current Fed funds rate may not be far above its neutral rate and all participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain the Fed funds rate at the current target range.
• A muted reaction was seen across markets following the FOMC minutes.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said they should have the lowest interest rates.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded with a mostly positive bias following the gains on Wall St although some of the upside was limited as participants digested the latest batch of tariff letters and with underperformance in Japan due to recent currency strength.
• ASX 200 gained with the index led by strength in mining names due to recent upside in metal prices.
• Nikkei 225 bucked the trend amid headwinds from a firmer currency and following somewhat ambiguous Japanese PPI data.
• KOSPI outperformed despite the BoK's widely-expected rate pause, while the central bank's language remained dovish as it maintained the rate cut stance and a majority of members were open to a cut in the three months ahead.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were marginally positive in quiet trade with little fresh macro drivers, although China's State Council recently issued a notice on stepping up support for employment and will support enterprises in stabilising jobs.
• US equity futures pulled back following the prior day's choppy but positive performance as tariff updates remained in focus.
• European equity futures indicate a mildly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.4% on Wednesday.

FX

• DXY traded rangebound after the prior day's inconclusive performance as Trump trade letters continued to roll out but with strong gains seen against BRL with President Trump announcing a 50% tariff rate for Brazil and to initiate a Section 301 investigation on Brazil. Furthermore, attention was also on the release of the latest FOMC Minutes although it proved to be a non-event and spurred little reaction.
• EUR/USD slightly edged higher after yesterday's rebound from support near the 1.1700 level but with further upside limited amid ongoing trade uncertainty, while the EU is reportedly discussing car import quotas and export credits with the US in trade talks.
• GBP/USD just about reverted to 1.3600 territory following recent choppy price action and amid a lack of pertinent drivers.
• USD/JPY initially continued its recent pullback and briefly fell to sub-146.00 territory before paring the moves, while there was a lack of surprises from the latest Japanese PPI data which matched estimates on a M/M and Y/Y basis.
• Antipodeans remained afloat in uneventful trade amid light catalysts and the absence of tier-1 data releases.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1510 vs exp. 7.1757 (Prev. 7.1541)

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures held on to the prior day's spoils after steadily advancing amid short-covering and Trump tariff letters.
• Bund futures lingered around the 130.00 level amid trade uncertainty and as German final CPI data loomed.
• 10yr JGB futures were little changed following the lack of surprises in Japanese PPI data but eked out slight gains in the aftermath of a relatively uneventful 20yr JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures lacked direction after recent EIA data, commentary on Russia sanctions, and Gaza ceasefire hopes.
• Spot gold marginally extended on yesterday's resurgence from beneath the USD 3,300/oz level.
• Copper futures remained underpinned after US President Trump confirmed to impose 50% tariffs on copper from August 1st.
• Chile's Foreign Minister said they do not know the precise scope of copper tariffs from the US as it has not yet been reflected in an executive order.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was choppy and took a breather after briefly surging to a fresh record high above the USD 112k level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoK kept the base rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected, with the rate decision unanimous, while it stated that it will maintain the rate cut stance to mitigate downside risks to economic growth and will adjust the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts. BoK said consumption is expected to gradually recover due to an improvement in economic sentiment and the supplementary budget but noted significant uncertainties concerning the pace of recovery in domestic demand and that future economic growth faces significant uncertainties concerning developments in trade negotiations with the US. BoK said it is to closely monitor changes in domestic and external policy environments and will examine the impact on inflation and financial stability. Furthermore, BoK Governor Rhee revealed that four board members were open to a rate cut in the next three months and two members saw the policy rate unchanged in the next 3 months, while he added that uncertainty is too high to say when to lower the interest rate and by how much.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Jun) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%, Rev. -0.1%); YY (Jun) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.2%, Rev. 3.3%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Senior Israeli official said a Gaza ceasefire deal with Hamas may be possible within a week or two weeks but not in a day’s time, while Israel will offer a temporary ceasefire and if Hamas does not lay down its arms, Israel would proceed with military operations. Furthermore, the official said Israeli intelligence showed that before strikes on Iran, its enriched uranium was in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites, while it has stayed there and has not been moved.
• Hamas said it has agreed to release ten hostages under Gaza ceasefire talks efforts, while the points still being negotiated are the flow of aid, withdrawal of Israel from the Gaza Strip and 'genuine guarantees' for a permanent ceasefire.
• US President Trump said regarding a Gaza ceasefire that they have a chance this week or next week and there is a very good chance of a settlement this week on Gaza.
• A secret White House meeting between US Envoy Witkoff, Israel's Dermer, and a Qatari envoy on Tuesday led to significant progress in the negotiations over the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, according to Axios' Ravid.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a "substantive" conversation with US Special Envoy Kellogg.
• US President Trump said they will take a look at sending another patriot system to Ukraine and he is not happy about what's going on in Ukraine.
• US military is delivering artillery shells and mobile rocket artillery missiles to Ukraine, according to officials cited by Reuters.
• US House Speaker Johnson reiterated he is in favour of Congress putting new sanctions on Russia, according to Punchbowl.
• US State Department senior official confirmed that Secretary of State Rubio will meet with Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov on Thursday on the sidelines of ASEAN.

EU/UK

DATA RECAP

• UK RICS Housing Survey (Jun) -7.0 vs. Exp. -8.0 (Prev. -8.0, Rev. -7)