• APAC stocks traded with a mostly negative bias after a similar performance among global peers.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3%.
• FX markets are contained, EUR/USD sits on a 1.15 handle, USD/JPY maintains its footing above the 148 mark.
• Bund futures lacked direction overnight. Crude futures were little changed but held on to most of the prior day's spoils.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish GDP Estimate, US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories Advance, Consumer Confidence, Dallas Fed Services Revenues, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, ECB SCE, Supply from UK, Germany & US.
• Earnings from AstraZeneca, Barclays, Unite, L'Oreal, Air Liquide, Orange, Kering, Banca Generali, Terna, Endesa, Grifols, Visa, Marathon Digital, Starbucks, Booking, UnitedHealth, Sofi, Paypal, UPS, Spotify, Merck, Nucor, JetBlue, Procter & Gamble.

SNAPSHOT

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were mixed with markets chopping to the US/EU trade announcement which was initially hailed by markets as a step in the right direction, but sentiment on the deal swiftly turned as European officials did not seem pleased with the deal, with German Chancellor Merz warning of the significant impact it will have on the German economy, while French President Macron had been calling for the implementation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument, even after the deal was agreed. Overall, the deal is being framed as a win for the US but a loss for the EU, keeping tensions high despite the agreement. Elsewhere on trade, the third round of US/China talks resumed Monday and are set to continue for a second day, but negotiators made no remarks, while US sectors were mixed with Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Tech leading gains which helped keep the Nasdaq buoyed ahead of key tech earnings this week from AAPL, META, MSFT and AMZN. Conversely, all other sectors were red, with notable weakness in Real Estate, Materials and Utilities.
• SPX 0.00% at 6,389, NDX +0.36% at 23,356, DJI -0.14% at 44,838, RUT -0.07% at 2,259.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump posted "I’m in Scotland now after having just completed the EU Deal, and numerous others. The United States is doing GREAT, to put it mildly!!!"
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump will mull a few deals this week and set tariff rates on other nations by the end of the week, while he added the table is set with nations that have offered access and "Next week, we're off".
• German Chancellor Merz said US tariffs present a significant burden on the German economy and that time will show that EU tariffs are also not in the interests of the US.
• France has reportedly been pushing EU members to unload its “trade bazooka” on the US — both before and after the EU struck its deal with US President Trump, according to The New York Post.
• French wine and spirits federation said regarding the EU-US trade deal that disaster has been avoided but the coming days will be crucial for the sector and the deal is expected to confirm duty-free trade in spirits.
• US President Trump's administration reportedly hears competing proposals on Myanmar policy shift with the Trump team reviewing policy ideas on Myanmar, focused on trade, critical minerals, and China competition, according to Reuters sources.
• South Korea's Finance Minister said they will do their best to derive the best trade agreement and will discuss shipbuilding, as well as other areas for longer-term cooperation with the US.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Quarterly Financing Estimates showed US Treasury expects to borrow USD 1.007tln in privately held net marketable debt during the July-September 2025 quarter (prev. exp. USD 554bln), assuming an end-of-quarter cash balance of USD 850bln (prev. exp. USD 850bln).

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mixed with a mostly negative bias after a similar performance among global peers as participants digested trade developments and as risk events loom.
• ASX 200 marginally declined with weakness in telecoms and the top-weighted financial sector leading the descent, while there were few catalysts to provide an uplift.
• Nikkei 225 continued to give back previous trade-related spoils despite recent currency weakness. Japanese PM Ishiba remained defiant and noted there is no change in his intention to stay in office despite many reportedly calling for PM Ishiba's resignation at Monday's LDP meeting.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured albeit to varying degrees with little information so far from the US-China talks in Sweden which are set to enter a second day.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%) eked slight gains after yesterday's indecisive performance on Wall St and with participants awaiting a deluge of key earnings and this week's major risk events.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3%.

FX

• DXY retained a firm footing above the 98.00 level after advancing at the start of the week on the back of the US-EU trade agreement, which is seen as a big win for President Trump, while the US is also holding talks with China in Stockholm. Nonetheless, the data calendar was quiet on Monday but begins to pick up heading into a deluge of risk events this week.
• EUR/USD marginally extended on the prior day's lows after suffering amid the dollar strength and despite the EU/US trade agreement, with Germany's Merz warning that the German economy faces substantial damage from the tariffs agreed, while France has been pushing EU members to unload its “trade bazooka” on the US, before and after the deal was struck.
• GBP/USD remains lacklustre after slipping beneath the 1.3400 handle, while there was a lack of developments from UK PM Starmer's meeting with US President Trump in Scotland.
• USD/JPY slightly eased back after ascending to north of the 148.00 level on the dollar rally and widening yield differentials.
• Antipodeans were little changed with price action kept rangebound amid the mixed risk appetite and a quiet calendar.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1511 vs exp. 7.1891 (Prev. 7.1467).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures mildly rebounded after whipsawing yesterday as participants digested the EU/US trade deal and ahead of several key risk events, while this week's front-loaded supply was mixed and the quarterly financing estimates for July-September were lifted but had little impact on price action.
• Bund futures lacked direction after the indecisive performance following the US-EU trade deal and with a EUR 4.5bln Bobl issuance due later.
• 10yr JGB futures remained afloat amid the downbeat risk tone in Japan and with a muted reaction to the mostly stronger-than-previous 2yr JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were little changed but held on to most of the prior day's spoils after rallying on trade developments and with US President Trump cutting the timeframe for Russian President Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
• Iraqi Kurdistan oil output is at around 120k BPD and is seen rising to 280k BPD by mid-August.
• Peru’s President announced a deal with PetroEcuador to connect the Ecuadorean oil fields with the Peruvian pipeline for transport to Peru's Talara refinery.
• Russia imposed a ban on gasoline exports for producers until August 31st with the decision made to preserve stability during a period of high demand, according to RIA.
• Spot gold was rangebound after suffering from a firmer dollar which also thwarted a recovery attempt.
• Copper futures remained lacklustre after recent declines and with price action not helped by the mixed risk appetite.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin saw two-way price action and ultimately gained after recovering from a brief dip beneath the USD 118k level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• US President Trump posted "The Fake News is reporting that I am SEEKING a “Summit” with President Xi of China. This is not correct, I am not SEEKING anything! I may go to China, but it would only be at the invitation of President Xi, which has been extended. Otherwise, no interest!"
• Japan's ruling LDP is said to hold a decision-making plenary meeting, according to FNN. It was separately reported that Japanese Finance Minister Kato said sales tax is vital for the social security system in Japan and it is inappropriate to lower the consumption tax rate.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Iran's Foreign Minister said "If aggression is repeated, we will not hesitate to react in a more decisive manner and in a way that will be IMPOSSIBLE to cover up.". The Foreign Minister stated that "Iran knows exactly what happened during the recent American-Israeli aggression, both to us and our adversaries—including the extent of blows that are still being censored", while he added Iran will never respond to threats and intimidation.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman dismissed US President Trump's accusation of Tehran's interference in Gaza ceasefire talks, according to Iran International.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said US President Trump's comments are timely at a point when things can change "thanks to strength used for the sake of genuine peace", while he added that Trump showed a clear position and expressed determination in remarks on Russia and Putin.
• Russia's Medvedev said US President Trump is playing a game of ultimatums with Russia and that this is a "step towards war", while he added that Trump should remember that Russia is not Israel or Iran.

OTHER

• US President Trump remains open to dialogue with North Korea leader Kim to achieve a fully denuclearised North Korea, according to the White House.
• North Korea said it rejects any attempt to deny its status as a nuclear state and stated it is not beneficial for North Korea and the US as nuclear states to move in a confrontational direction, while it does not deny that North Korean leader Kim and US President Trump's personal relationship is not bad.
• Taiwan's President Lai is set to delay his proposed trip that included a stopover in the US, according to Reuters. It was later reported that the Trump administration blocked Taiwan's President Lai from a New York stopover en route to Central America in August after China raised objections with Washington about the visit, according to FT.
• Thai army spokesman said Cambodia conducted attacks in several places after the ceasefire deadline although the acting PM later stated that the Thailand-Cambodia border is calm following small clashes. Thai Army spokesman says the commander of key Thai military force along the disputed border has met with the Cambodian counterpart.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB staff accused ECB President Lagarde of running an 'unaccountable legal fortress' with members of its own staff accusing the central bank of behaving in an "anti-democratic" way in the latest escalation of tensions between the ECB and its employees, according to FT.

DATA RECAP

• UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Jul) 0.7% (Prev. 0.4%)