• US President Trump announced tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41% including a tariff rate of 10% for Brazil, 30% for South Africa, 20% for Taiwan and 25% for India. Canada’s tariff increased from 25% to 35%, while Mexico received a 90-day extension of the current tariff rates.
• Japan eyes a 15% rate for the US chip tariff, on par with EU, with Japan’s trade negotiator stating Japan should be able to secure a 15% rate for the new sectoral tariff the US is planning to impose on chips, according to Nikkei.
• US official said they are still working out technicalities of rules of origin terms for transshipment and will implement rules of origin details in the coming weeks.
• Amazon (AMZN) shares fell 6.5% after-market whilst Apple (AAPL) shares rose 2.3% post-earnings.
• APAC stocks traded mostly subdued following the weak handover from US peer; European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.4% on Thursday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Global Manufacturing PMI (Finals), Italian Retail Sales, EZ HICP, US NFP, ISM Manufacturing, UoM Sentiment Final, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Speakers including Fed's Bowman & Waller (Unconfirmed), Earnings from Axa, Engie, Daimler Truck, Exxon, Chevron, Regeneron & Colgate.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks faded the initial gains seen which had been spurred by the stellar Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) earnings results after-hours on Wednesday, with the major indices retreating as trade progressed and uncertainties on tariffs mounted heading into Trump's deadline. As such, the deals the US had made with trading partners will be implemented with tariffs set to start from 00:01 EDT and those without a deal will face the tariffs Trump threatened in his letters, while those without a deal or letter will face the April 2nd tariff rate. Furthermore, Trump agreed with Mexico to extend the current tariff rates by 90 days and had previously noted that Canada's backing of the statehood of Palestine makes it hard for the US to make a trade deal with them, but has since commented that it is not a dealbreaker.
• SPX -0.37% at 6,340, NDX -0.55% at 23,218, DJI -0.74% at 44,131, RUT -0.93% at 2,212.
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TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump announced tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41% including a tariff rate of 10% for Brazil, 30% for South Africa, 20% for Taiwan and 25% for India, while the order stated "These modifications shall be effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time 7 days after the date of this order".
• White House said President Trump signed an executive order modifying reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries, with the tariff on Canada increased from 25% to 35% effective August 1st, while it added that Trump determined it is necessary and appropriate to modify the reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries. Furthermore, it stated that countries listed in Annex I of the executive order will be subject to the tariff specified therein and countries not listed in Annex I will be subject to a 10% tariff, while goods transshipped to evade the 35% tariff on Canada will be subject instead to a transshipment tariff of 40%.
• US official said that if the US has a surplus with a country, the tariff rate is 10% and small deficit nations have a 15% tariff, while they are still working out technicalities of rules of origin terms for transshipment and will implement rules of origin details in the coming weeks. The official said the US has more trade deals to come and the challenge with India includes geopolitical differences over BRICS and Russia, as well as noted that differences with India cannot be resolved overnight and there is no final decision on China.
• US President Trump said on Thursday that they just made a couple of other trade deals a little while ago and later commented that Canada's stance on a Palestinian state is not a deal-breaker. Trump also commented he may speak with Canadian PM Carney on Thursday night and he is open to further talks with Canada and open to more deals.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the China trade extension is up to US President Trump, while he stated if Canadian PM Carney complies, "maybe" Trump will reduce tariffs on Canada, but added that the 35% Trump sent in the letter is surely on the cards.
• White House Trade Adviser Navarro said the US is moving forward on progress with India, Canada and China, according to Fox News.
• White House Press Secretary said they are moving in the right direction with China and direct communication with counterparts continues.
• White House said new reciprocal tariff rates take effect on Friday and that President Trump took action on Pharma on Thursday in which he sent letters to CEOs, with Eli Lilly (LLY) urged to take actions within 60 days and they will deploy a tool to protect Americans if there is a refusal. Furthermore, it stated countries that haven't heard from them will hear by executive order or letter on Thursday night regarding tariffs.Mexican President Sheinbaum said she had a very good phone call with US President Trump on tariffs and avoided an increase in tariffs announced for Friday. Sheinbaum said the agreement reached with Trump safeguards the USMCA, as well as noted that they have the best deal possible and that investing in Mexico is the best option. Furthermore, she said the deal they made does not imply further action on Mexico's part and puts the country in a good position, while she believes an accord with the US on security will be signed in the coming week.
• Mexico’s Economy Minister Ebrard said the 90-day deal with the US was achieved without a concession from Mexico and they are moving closer to the renewal of their trade deal with the US. Ebrard separately commented that the tariff debate with the US includes concerns about intellectual property and the rules of origin panel, while he added that they have to address those issues from the perspective of revising the USMCA.
• Japan eyes a 15% rate for the US chip tariff, on par with EU, with Japan’s trade negotiator stating Japan should be able to secure a 15% rate for the new sectoral tariff the US is planning to impose on chips, according to Nikkei. In relevant news, Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said Japan will continue to push the US to execute the agreed-upon cut to auto tariffs, while he added that US tariffs will affect Japan’s economy through lower exports and weakening demand via a global slowdown.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump criticised Fed Chair Powell in which he called him 'Too late' and said he is a terrible Fed Chair.
• US President Trump posted a letter to 17 pharma companies and told pharma executives to extend the most favoured nation pricing to Medicaid.
• US President Trump's administration is to expand price support for US rare earths projects and his team outlined a push for rare earths in a meeting with executives.

AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS

• Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q2 2025 (USD) EPS 1.68 (exp. 1.33), Rev. 167.7bln (exp. 161.91bln), AWS net sales 30.9bln (exp. 30.77bln): Co. shares fell 6.5% after-market.
• Apple Inc (AAPL) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 1.57 (exp. 1.43), Rev. 94.04bln (exp. 89.29bln), iPhone rev. 44.58bln (exp. 44.52bln), Services rev. 27.42bln (exp. 26.80bln), Mac rev. 8.05bln (exp. 7.26bln), iPad rev. 6.58bln (exp. 7.24bln), Wearables, Home & Accessories net sales 7.40bln (exp. 7.82bln), Americas rev. 41.20bln (vs. 37.68bln y/y), Greater China rev. 15.37bln (exp. 15.12bln): Co. shares fell 2.5% after-market.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mostly subdued following the weak handover from US peers and as participants digested the latest Trump tariff adjustments ahead of the deadline and with the key US Non-Farm Payrolls report on the horizon.
• ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in tech, healthcare and financials leading the declines in most sectors as sentiment is dampened amid trade uncertainty.
• Nikkei 225 slumped at the open but was well off today's worst levels with a rebound facilitated by recent currency weakness.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre mood following the latest S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI (formerly sponsored by Caixin) which missed forecasts and surprisingly returned to contractionary territory.
• US equity futures lacked demand after declining yesterday and with little impact seen following the mixed fortunes in the likes of Apple and Amazon post-earnings.
• European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.4% on Thursday.

FX

• DXY kept afloat after reclaiming the 100.00 level with the dollar on course for its biggest weekly gain in nearly three years after the latest set of US data largely pointed towards a hotter-than-anticipated economy, while the attention now turns to the latest Non-Farm Payrolls data. Furthermore, participants digested the tariff announcements with Trump signing an order modifying reciprocal tariffs in the hours leading into the tariff deadline, although President Trump's executive order noted that tariff modifications would take effect in 7 days.
• EUR/USD lacked direction after yesterday's indecisive performance amid little fresh catalysts from the bloc and with HICP data scheduled later.
• GBP/USD retested the 1.3200 level to the downside as the dollar held onto its recent spoils and in the absence of pertinent catalysts for the UK.
• USD/JPY took a breather after surging to near the 151.00 territory in the aftermath of the BoJ which continued to suggest a lack of urgency to hike rates.
• Antipodeans were contained amid the mostly subdued risk appetite and following the disappointing Manufacturing PMI data from China.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1496 vs exp. 7.2033 (Prev. 7.1494).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures remained subdued after retreating yesterday in the aftermath of firmer-than-expected US data and as participants awaited incoming key US jobs data.
• Bund futures retested the prior day's lows with demand hampered after recent mixed German inflation figures and with EU HICP data due later.
• 10yr JGB futures climbed at the open amid softer yields and following the recent BoJ meeting and Governor Ueda's press conference, where the language continued to suggest a lack of urgency to resume hiking rates with money markets just pricing around a 16bps increase in rates by year-end. However, JGBs then spent the rest of the session gradually fading the majority of the initial surge.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures traded little changed with price action contained after yesterday's pullback and amid quiet energy-specific newsflow.
• Spot gold Lacked direction and languished beneath the USD 3,300/oz level after recent dollar strength and as the key US jobs data looms.
• Copper futures regained some composure after the recent historic tariff-related collapse in prices but with a further rebound limited amid the mixed risk appetite and disappointing Chinese PMI data.
• Codelco said a worker died and nine were injured with five missing at the Andesita mine at El Teniente in Chile after a seismic event.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was choppy overnight and pared intraday gains after hitting resistance around the USD 116k level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China's MOFCOM announced tax credit policies related to direct investment by foreigners.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI (formerly sponsored by Caixin) (Jul) 49.5 vs. Exp. 50.4 (Prev. 50.4)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Hamas cut off contact and is not ready to negotiate, according to Al Arabiya citing Israeli media sources.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed with White House Envoy Witkoff the possibility of moving from an incremental and partial Gaza deal to a comprehensive deal, according to an Israeli official cited by Axios.
• US President Trump said Iran has been acting very badly and their nuclear capability was decimated but added that Iran can start again.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said it is disgusting what Russia is doing and they are going to put sanctions on Russia.

OTHER

• China cyber association accused the US of a cyberattack on the defence sector to steal secrets, according to Bloomberg.