• POTUS suggested there will be India tariff talks until things are resolved; Bessent said China tariffs can be on the table "at some point".
• Trump appointed CEA Chair Miran as a temporary replacement to fill Kugler's seat at the Fed; BBG reported that Waller is now favourite for Chair.
• European futures point to a firmer cash open, APAC handover mixed amid earnings and into tariff updates.
• DXY firmer with G10s mixed/flat, USTs weak following a poor 30yr tap
• Crude remained near Thursday's lows with newsflow since the Putin-Trump updates light, gold indecisive, copper firmer
• Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Report (Jul), Japanese LDP Joint Plenary Meeting, Speakers including BoE's Pill & Fed’s Musalem, Earnings from fuboTV, Tempus AI, Wendy's, AMC Networks, Munich Re & Bechtle.

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks finished mixed with a mostly downward bias in the major indices, while sectors were varied as defensive names generally outperformed with Utilities and Staples leading gains, albeit healthcare lagged amid Eli Lilly's (LLY, -14.1%) oral GLP-1 Orforglipron Phase 3 trial disappointing expectations, despite later topping expectations on its Q2 report. Major updates for the day came via the White House, where US President Trump announced CEA Chair Miran as the temporary replacement to fill Kugler's seat on the Fed's board of governors, which becomes available on Friday through 31st January 2026. The announcement sparked upside in equities, gold, and T-notes, while the dollar was sold as dovish bets on the Fed increased as Trump's push for lower rates moves into the next stage. Additionally, Bloomberg reported that Fed Governor Waller is the favourite for the Fed Chair role, albeit a muted reaction was seen across markets.
• SPX -0.08% at 6,340, NDX +0.32% at 23,390, DJI -0.51% at 43,969, RUT -0.30% at 2,215.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump suggested there will be no talk on the India tariff until they get things resolved.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China tariffs can be on the table at some point and that President Trump is using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy, while he stated the TikTok deal is separate from a China trade deal. Furthermore, Bessent said the BRICs countries' meeting is largely ceremonial and the Fed lacks logic on rates, according to a Fox News interview.
• Japan's trade negotiator Akazawa said it is regrettable that the US stacked tariffs despite the trade deal but added that they have been able to confirm a non-stacking stance from the US and there is no discrepancy between the US and Japan that there is no tariff stacking. Furthermore, he noted that the US said it will refund any extra tariffs retroactively going back to August 7th and the US side expressed regret over the erroneous citation in the executive order.
• Japan's government said top tariff negotiator Akazawa held talks with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick for 3 hours and Treasury Secretary Bessent for 30 minutes on Thursday in which both sides reaffirmed the importance of steadily implementing measures that benefit the interests of both Japan and the US under the Japan-US agreement. Furthermore, Akazawa urged the US side to correct the executive order regarding reciprocal tariffs and Japan will continue to maintain close communication with the US side at various levels.
• Brazil's VP Alckmin said a plan with measures to mitigate the effects of US tariffs is expected to be announced by Tuesday.
• US Customs Border Protection agency said one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to levies which is a fresh blow to Switzerland, according to FT citing a ruling letter dated July 31st.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump announced CEA Chair Miran as a temporary replacement to fill Fed Kugler's seat until January 31st, 2026, and in the meantime, will continue to search for a permanent replacement.
• US President Trump signed an executive order that aims to allow Private Equity, Real Estate, Crypto and other alternative assets in 401(k)s.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mixed following the mostly lacklustre handover from Wall St and amid a deluge of earnings releases.
• ASX 200 was rangebound with the index contained as gains in the mining, resources and materials sectors were offset by losses in tech, healthcare, telecoms and financials.
• Nikkei 225 outperformed and briefly reclaimed the 42,000 status, while the TOPIX hit a fresh record high with sentiment underpinned after Japan was able to confirm a non-stacking stance regarding tariffs from the US and with momentum also helped by earnings releases including from SoftBank, whose shares surged by a double-digit percentage after its profit beat.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid ongoing uncertainty heading into next week's tariff truce deadline.
• US equity futures gradually edged higher in a rebound after US President Trump named CEA head Miran as the temporary replacement to Kugler at the Fed board.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.3% on Thursday.

FX

• DXY eked mild gains amid the dollar's mixed performance against G10 peers and with upside capped after recent Fed-related headlines including a report that Fed Governor Waller has emerged as the Trump team's favourite for the next Fed Chair, while President Trump named CEA Chair Miran as the temporary replacement to fill Fed Kugler's seat until end-January.
• EUR/USD traded flat after rebounding off the prior day's trough and with little catalysts from the bloc to spur price action.
• GBP/USD took a breather and held on to recent spoils after climbing above the 1.3400 level in the aftermath of the BoE rate cut and hawkish vote split which included an unprecedented second round of voting.
• USD/JPY rebounded to back above the 147.00 level following disappointing Household Spending data and amid outperformance in Japanese stocks.
• Antipodeans lacked conviction in the absence of pertinent data and alongside the mixed risk appetite in the region.
• Banxico cut rates by 25bps as expected to 7.75%, with the decision split as 4/5 voted for 25bps cut, and Heath voted for unchanged rates, while the Governing Board deemed it appropriate to continue the rate-cutting cycle and said the decision was consistent with the assessment of the current inflationary outlook.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures lacked demand after yesterday's mild losses and curve flattening owing to a weak 30yr auction and reports that Waller emerged as the Trump team's favourite for Fed Chair.
• Bund futures struggled for direction after recent oscillations through the 130.00 level and with very little in today's calendar that can influence price action.
• 10yr JGB futures followed suit to the humdrum mood in global peers and largely ignored the BoJ Summary of Opinions and softer-than-expected household Spending data.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were little changed and languished near the prior day's lows amid a lack of energy-specific drivers and after recent geopolitical updates including claims by a Kremlin aide that an agreement had been reached to hold a Trump-Putin meeting in the next few days which the White House denied, while it was also reported that Israel's security cabinet approved a proposal for the occupation of Gaza.
• Spot gold was indecisive and initially pulled back from the recently reclaimed USD 3,400/oz level after having benefited yesterday in a dovish reaction to President Trump naming CEA head Miran to temporarily fill the Fed Governor role made vacant by Kugler's exit from the central bank today.
• Copper futures remained afloat but with upside capped in choppy trade and amid the mixed risk appetite in Asia-Pac.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin gradually retreated after yesterday's firm gains and returned to just beneath the USD 117k level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• US President Trump suggested he will most likely be going to China in the not too distant future, maybe before year-end.
• BoJ Summary of Opinions from the July meeting stated a member said the BoJ is likely to continue raising rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts, while a member said that given high uncertainty on whether the BoJ's forecast materialises, it must judge the outlook without preconception. It was also noted that there was no change to the view that underlying inflation will stall before re-accelerating despite the Japan-US tariff agreement, and it was stated that US monetary policy and the direction of FX moves may change sharply depending on US consumer inflation and labour data, so policy must be judged after looking at more data. Furthermore, a member said they need at least two to three months to gauge the impact of US tariff policy and it there was also the opinion that the BoJ must proceed with further rate hikes when the chance opens up, as Japan's policy rate is still below neutral and it must raise rates in a timely fashion to avoid being forced to hike rapidly and cause huge damage to Japan's economy.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese All Household Spending MM (Jun) -5.2% vs. Exp. -3.0% (Prev. 4.6%)
• Japanese All Household Spending YY (Jun) 1.3% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 4.7%)
• Japanese Current Account NSA JPY (Jun) 1348.2B vs. Exp. 1480.0B (Prev. 3436.4B)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel's security cabinet approved PM Netanyahu's proposal for the occupation of Gaza City to defeat Hamas and the IDF will prepare to take control of Gaza City while providing humanitarian aid to the civilian population outside the combat zones, according to Axios's Ravid.
• Israeli media said the army intends to impose a siege on Gaza City from all sides and the army will begin a large-scale campaign to call up the reserve forces, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US issued new Iran-related sanctions which target several individuals and entities.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said regarding a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire that it is up to Russian President Putin and that Putin doesn't have to agree to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky to meet with him.
• White House pushed back on Kremlin claims that US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed to a meeting, according to ABC News.

OTHER

• US President Trump posted that he looks forward to hosting the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia at the White House on Friday for a historic peace summit.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE Governor Bailey said the market's 50-50 pricing of rate outlook reflects a finely balanced situation, according to Bloomberg TV.