• APAC stocks were mostly in the green but with gains limited in the absence of notable catalysts from over the weekend and Japan away from market.
• US President Trump said he will meet with Russian President Putin on August 15th in Alaska; White House is considering inviting Zelensky.
• Fed’s Bowman (voter) said that the latest job market data reinforces her forecast for three rate cuts this year.
• Fed Chair list now said to include former St. Louis Fed President Bullard and former George W. Bush adviser Sumerlin, according to WSJ.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Friday.
• DXY is a touch softer, EUR is the marginal outperformer across the majors with price action overall contained.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI (Jul) & BoC SLOS (Q2).

SNAPSHOT

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks gained on Friday with all major indices in the green and the Nasdaq posted a fresh record close as Tech and Communications outperformed, although Real Estate, Utilities and Industrials lagged, while sentiment was helped by recent Fed-related headlines including President Trump naming CEA Chair Miran to be the replacement for Fed's Kugler until the end of January, and amid optimism related to a Trump-Putin meeting which has since been confirmed for August 15th.
• SPX +0.79% at 6,390, NDX +0.95% at 23,611, DJI +0.44% at 44,162, RUT +0.17% at 2,218.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump posted "China is worried about its shortage of soybeans. Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China’s Trade Deficit with the USA. Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President XI."
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent expects trade issues to be finished by October, according to Nikkei.
• US licensed NVIDIA (NVDA) to export chips to China after CEO Huang met with US President Trump, while it was also reported that NVIDIA and AMD (AMD) will pay 15% of China chip revenues to the US government, according to FT.
• China wants the US to relax export controls on chips as part of a trade deal, according to the FT.
• Mexico’s government said it fixed minimum prices for exports of fresh tomatoes following the end of an antidumping investigation suspension agreement with the US, while it noted that the decision protects producers, prevents market distortions and ensures national supply.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Bowman (voter) said core PCE inflation appears to be moving much closer to the 2% target than is shown in the data and it is appropriate to look through temporarily elevated inflation, while she added that upside risks to inflation have diminished and she has more confidence that tariffs won’t mean persistent inflation. Furthermore, Bowman said delayed action risks further labour market erosion and the need for a possible bigger cut, as well as noted that the latest job market data reinforces her forecast for three rate cuts this year.
• US President Trump’s team was reported on Friday to have expanded the search for Fed Chair with new names added to the list, including former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Marc Sumerlin, who is a former George W. Bush adviser, according to WSJ.
• US President Trump administration officials are looking at Heritage Foundation chief economist E.J. Antoni, among others, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to The Wall Street Journal.
• US President Trump is expected to activate hundreds of National Guard troops for Washington DC, while a final number and what role they could play are still being decided, according to Reuters citing a US official.
• US President Trump’s administration is considering reclassification of marijuana as a less dangerous category of drug, according to WSJ.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly in the green but with gains limited and price action contained in the absence of notable catalysts from over the weekend and with Japanese markets closed for a holiday.
• ASX 200 notched a fresh intraday record high with lithium miners boosted after CATL temporarily suspended operations at the Jianxiawo lithium mine in China.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat following reports that the US licenced NVIDIA to export chips to China, with the Co. and AMD to pay 15% of China chip revenue to the US government, although gains were capped as participants continued to await an extension to the US-China tariff truce deadline which expires on Tuesday, while inflation data from China was mixed as CPI topped estimates to print flat Y/Y but coincided with a deeper-than-expected deflation in factory gate prices.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%) marginally edged higher in a resumption of last Friday's gradual rebound.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Friday.

FX

• DXY began the week marginally softer with little fresh major macro catalysts from over the weekend and as participants look ahead to US CPI data due on Tuesday. Nonetheless, there were comments from Fed's Bowman who warned that delayed action risks further labour market erosion and the need for a possible bigger cut, as well as noted that the latest job market data reinforces her forecast for three rate cuts this year.
• EUR/USD mildly benefitted on the back of a softer dollar but with price action contained within Friday's parameters amid quiet newsflow from the bloc.
• GBP/USD remained afloat and marginally extended on last week's best levels, albeit with trade muted alongside a quiet calendar for today, which is set to pick up on Tuesday, including with the release of the latest UK employment data.
• USD/JPY lacked demand with price action uneventful in the absence of Japanese participants due to the Mountain Day holiday closure.
• Antipodeans struggled for direction owing to a lack of drivers and with the RBA kick-starting its 2-day policy meeting where the central bank is unanimously expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1405 vs exp. 7.1845 (Prev. 7.1382)

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures eked slight gains but lacked conviction amid the closure of overnight cash treasuries trade due to the holiday in Tokyo.
• Bund futures languished near the prior week's trough at the sub-130.00 territory with little newsflow from the bloc to spur price action.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures remained subdued after last week's declines and ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting scheduled for Friday.
• Iraq set September Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at plus USD 2.15/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average and to Europe at minus USD 1.30/bbl vs Dated Brent, while it set the OSP to North and South America at minus USD 1.00/bbl vs ASCI, according to SOMO.
• Chile’s Codelco said the El Teniente copper mine was approved for a restart by the labour authority and it later announced that it restarted sectors of the El Teniente mine, plant and smelter.
• Spot gold pulled back after the choppy performance on Friday and with resistance around the USD 3,400/oz level.
• Copper futures traded indecisively in the absence of major catalysts and after mixed inflation data from its largest buyer.
• Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) suspended production at a major lithium mine in China’s Jiangxi province for at least three months, according to sources familiar with the matter.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin climbed overnight alongside a broad crypto rally which saw prices approach just shy of the USD 122k level before paring some of the gains.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

DATA RECAP

• Chinese CPI MM (Jul) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.1%)
• Chinese CPI YY (Jul) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
• Chinese PPI YY (Jul) -3.6% vs. Exp. -3.3% (Prev. -3.6%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel has no choice but to complete the job and defeat Hamas due to the group’s refusal to lay down its arms, while the new Gaza offensive plans aim to tackle two remaining Hamas strongholds and Israel expects to conclude the new Gaza offensive plan fairly quickly.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke with US President Trump and discussed Israel’s plan to take control of the remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza to bring an end to the war in Gaza.
• White House Special Envoy Witkoff was reported to meet with Qatar’s PM on Saturday for discussions regarding an end to the Gaza war and the release of hostages.
• Australia's PM Albanese said Australia will recognise the state of Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September, while recognition will be predicated on commitments from the Palestinian Authority. Furthermore, Albanese said the situation in Gaza has gone beyond the world's worst fears and that Israel continues to defy international law, while it was also reported that New Zealand is considering recognition of the state of Palestine with the New Zealand cabinet to make a formal decision in September.
• Iran said an IAEA official is to visit for talks to determine a framework for cooperation, although there are no plans for the IAEA to visit Iranian nuclear sites until there is a framework for cooperation.
• Jordan said it will host a Jordanian-Syrian-American meeting on Tuesday to discuss ways to support the rebuilding of Syria.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said he will meet with Russian President Putin on August 15th in Alaska, while Russia’s Kremlin confirmed an agreement was reached to organise a meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump.
• White House is reportedly considering inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky to the Alaska summit and President Trump is open to a trilateral meeting in Alaska, although the White House is currently planning for a bilateral summit as requested by Russian President Putin.
• US VP Vance said the US is in the process of scheduling when Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky can sit down and discuss an end to the conflict, while the US will keep dialogue open with Ukraine but doesn’t think it will be productive to have Putin sit down with Zelensky ahead of a meeting with Trump. Furthermore, Vance said President Trump is thinking about tariffs on China for buying Russian oil but hasn’t made any firm decisions, according to a Fox News interview.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine cannot violate the constitution on territory and Ukrainians will not give their land to occupiers, while he added that any solutions without Ukraine will be solutions against peace.
• Russian President Putin was reported on Friday to demand that Ukraine cede Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea, for Russia to halt the war, while Putin told Witkoff he would agree to a complete ceasefire if Ukraine agreed to withdraw forces from all of Ukraine's Eastern Donetsk region, according to WSJ citing Ukrainian and European officials.
• Joint statement from several EU and UK leaders stated they welcome US President Trump’s work to stop the killing in Ukraine and end Russia’s war of aggression, as well as achieve just and lasting peace and security for Ukraine. Furthermore, the joint statement noted they are convinced that only an approach that combines active diplomacy, support to Ukraine and pressure on the Russian Federation to end the war can succeed.
• Joint statement of the leaders of the Nordic-Baltic eight said they stand ready to contribute diplomatically, while maintaining substantial military and financial support to Ukraine. The joint statement also stated that they will continue to uphold and impose restrictive measures against the Russian Federation.
• Ukraine’s military said on Sunday that it struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Saratov region overnight, while it also announced that Russia attacked Zaporizhzhia with guided aerial bombs which hit residential areas, a bus station and a clinic.

OTHER

• Thai soldiers were injured in a landmine blast near the Cambodia border.
• South Korea’s military said North Korea is dismantling loudspeakers from the border area.
• North Korea condemned upcoming US-South Korea joint military drills and said it will exercise its sovereign right against provocation regarding military drills, according to Yonhap.