• Trump hailed great progress at Putin meeting, but one or two significant items; no ceasefire was achieved.
• Trump to meet with European leaders and Zelensky later today; Zelensky supports trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia.
• Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
• APAC stocks began the week mostly higher following the recent Trump-Putin summit; Europe is set for a firmer open.
• DXY is steady with traders mindful of Jackson Hole later in the week, JPY narrowly lags across the majors.
• Crude futures were little changed post-Trump-Putin meeting, spot gold saw two-way price action before gaining.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European Leaders

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks finished mostly in the red on Friday albeit with mild losses amid tentativeness leading into the Trump/Putin meeting and as participants digested mixed data including US Retail Sales which matched expectations in July alongside a stronger-than-expected control figure, while industrial production unexpectedly declined, import prices were hot and UoM Sentiment unexpectedly worsened, but NY Fed Manufacturing surged above expectations. As such, stocks came under pressure ahead of and after the cash open in which financials were hit the most alongside Tech, with the latter weighed by fresh Trump remarks on tariffs on chip imports as he stated "I'm going to have a rate that is going to be 200%, 300%", while Healthcare notably outperformed among the sectors due to Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 13F unveiling a new stake in UnitedHealth.
• SPX -0.26% at 6,451, NDX -0.51% at 23,712, DJI +0.08% at 44,946, RUT -0.56% at 2,286.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country's purchases of Russian oil.
• US government officially posted the Section 232 tariff codes for steel and aluminium products on Friday, in which the BIS is adding 407 Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) codes to the list of products that will be considered as steel or aluminium derivative products.
• White House Trade Advisor Navarro wrote in the FT that India's oil lobby is funding Russia's war machine which has to stop, while he added that if India wants to be treated as a strategic partner of the US, it needs to start acting like one.
• US negotiators’ August 25th visit to New Delhi for trade talks was called off and the current round of negotiations for a proposed US-India bilateral trade deal is now likely to be deferred to another date, according to NDTV Profit.
• EU push to prevent the US from targeting the bloc’s landmark digital rules is reportedly holding up a trade statement with the US, according to FT.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, while she added that they have to be ahead in order to not be behind and that Fed officials have to balance inflation and labour mandates. Daly also stated that the economy has slowed but is not slow, and there is still room to recalibrate the policy rate.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks began the week mostly higher following the recent Trump-Putin summit which was said to have made great progress, although some of the gains were capped as the attention turned to President Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders later today. Focus this week will also be on Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• ASX 200 was ultimately little changed following a choppy performance and after having pulled back from an early fresh record high, with earnings releases remaining in the spotlight including the latest results from big four bank NAB.
• Nikkei 225 resumed its rally to fresh record highs with little fresh drivers to derail the current momentum for Tokyo stocks.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mostly constructive mood in the region with sentiment also helped after President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country's purchases of Russian oil, while the PBoC Q2 Monetary Policy Implementation Report on Friday noted that China’s economic operation still faces many risks and challenges, but made numerous pledges including to further improve the monetary policy framework, implement and refine moderately loose monetary policy.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%) marginally gained amid some optimism following the Trump-Putin meeting last week.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Friday.

FX

• DXY traded rangebound after last Friday's mixed data releases and with little fresh catalysts aside from the geopolitical headlines, while participants also look ahead to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Nonetheless, there were comments from Fed's Daly over the weekend who said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, as well as noted that they have to be ahead in order to not be behind.
• EUR/USD took a breather from recent advances and battled to sustain the recently reclaimed 1.1700 status with various European leaders set to visit the White House on Monday for talks with Trump and Zelensky.
• GBP/USD struggled for direction amid quiet pertinent newsflow and with very little scheduled for the UK at the start of the week before Wednesday's inflation data.
• USD/JPY gradually edged higher north of the 147.00 level with the Japanese currency marginally pressured amid the outperformance in Japanese stocks.
• Antipodeans remained afloat alongside the mostly positive risk environment, albeit with further upside limited owing to the lack of tier-1 releases and ahead of a widely expected rate cut at the RBNZ meeting scheduled mid-week.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1322 vs exp. 7.1793 (Prev. 7.1371).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures resumed its gradual rebound from last week's trough as participants looked ahead to President Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Monday and Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
• Bund futures were confined to tight parameters after last Friday's slump beneath the 129.00 level and ahead of this week's issuances on Tuesday and Wednesday.
• 10yr JGB futures attempted to nurse losses but with the recovery hampered by a lack of pertinent data and as Japanese stock markets extended on record highs.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were little changed with demand constrained following the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska which President Trump said had made great progress, while he is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House today.
• Spot gold saw two-way trade and gained after rebounding from an initial dip, with little catalysts outside of geopolitics.
• Copper futures eked marginal gains amid the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pac region.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin steadily retreated overnight and nears a test of the USD 115k level to the downside.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese authorities have increased calls on investors to pay taxes on their global gains, forcing wealthy individuals to reassess their trading strategies as Beijing tries to boost its funds to counter economic pressures, according to FT.
• India's federal government proposes reducing the GST rate on small cars to 18% from 28% and proposes lowering GST rate on health and life insurance premiums to a maximum of 5% from the current 18%, according to a source cited by Reuters.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel’s navy carried out an attack against a power station south of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Sunday.
• Israel’s military began providing tents and shelter equipment for Gazans in preparation for relocating residents from combat zones to southern Gaza.
• Hamas said the entry of tents by Israel into the southern Gaza Strip under ‘humanitarian arrangements’ is blatant deception and the new Israeli relocation plan is a new wave of genocide and displacement.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• White House said US President Trump will greet Ukrainian President Zelensky at 13:00EDT/18:00BST on Monday and will participate in a bilateral meeting with Zelensky at 13:15EDT/18:15BST, while European leaders will arrive at the White House on Monday at 12:00EDT/17:00BST and President Trump will greet European leaders at 14:15EDT/19:15BST with a multilateral meeting to take place at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.
• US President Trump said they made great progress in the meeting with Russian President Putin which he said was "a 10" and there are just a few points left to agree upon and a few things left to resolve, but added there is no deal until there is a deal and there are one or two significant items left to agree on and it is ultimately up to NATO and Ukraine to agree. Trump said they negotiated on NATO, security and land, while he also stated that he could meet Putin again soon and could see a Moscow meeting possibly happening, as well as noted that Putin wants to see an end to the killing like he does.
• US President Trump commented on Truth Social that it was a great and very successful day in Alaska and that the meeting with Russian President Putin went very well, as did a late-night phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders. Trump added it was determined by all that the best way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is to go directly to a peace agreement and not a mere ceasefire agreement which often does not hold. Furthermore, he said Zelensky will visit the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, and if all works out, they will then schedule a meeting with Putin.
• US President Trump posted "President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!"
• Russian President Putin said he is sincerely interested in ending the conflict, but all ‘root causes’ must be eliminated and all Russia’s concerns must be taken into account. Putin said negotiations were productive and useful. Putin said the personal meeting has been overdue and was necessary to rectify the situation, while he hopes that a mutual understanding will bring peace to Ukraine and he agrees with US President Trump on the need for Ukraine’s security. Furthermore, he said the agreements should be a starting point and that a Russia-US Investment partnership has huge potential. It was also reported that Putin told Trump that if Ukraine fully withdraws from eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia would freeze the front line in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It was also reported that the Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
• Senior Russian diplomat said Russia agrees any future peace agreement on Ukraine must provide security guarantees to Kyiv, but Moscow also needs guarantees, while the official said the West has not been thinking about security guarantees for Russia, and this needs to be corrected with Moscow ready to assist.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for constructive cooperation and will travel to Washington D.C. on Monday, while he added that Ukraine reaffirms its readiness to work with maximum effort to achieve peace and the call with US President Trump and Europeans discussed positive signals and lasted for more than 90 minutes. Furthermore, he said Ukraine supports President Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia. It was separately reported that Zelensky said he emphasised to Trump that pressure on Russia should be stepped up and noted that security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky announced he arrived in the US and is grateful to President Trump for the invitation, while he added that they all equally want to end this war swiftly and securely, as well as hopes their shared strength with America and European friends will compel Russia to real peace.
• US Special Envoy Witkoff said US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed at their summit that the US would be able to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions to get a peace deal and there were things discussed in the Trump-Putin meeting that have potential for breakthroughs to end the war. Rubio suggested that to end the war, there are things Russia and Ukraine want but cannot get and it may not be possible for the US to create a scenario to end the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, he said security guarantees will be discussed in Monday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and others, while Rubio added that he is not saying they are on the verge of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, but they saw enough movement to justify a follow-up meeting with Zelensky.
• European leaders have been invited to join US President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Monday and it was reported that UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, Italian PM Meloni, Finland’s President Stubb, European Commission President von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Rutte will join the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Monday.
• European leaders issued a joint statement on the Trump-Putin summit in which they stated that they welcome US President Trump’s efforts and support for providing security guarantees, while they added that Russia cannot have a veto on Ukraine’s pathway to the EU and NATO.
• EU Council President Costa said transatlantic unity is paramount at this moment to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine and if no ceasefire is agreed, the EU and the US must increase pressure on Russia, while he added that Ukraine’s sovereign right to determine its conditions for peace must be respected.
• EU Commission spokesperson said Ukraine’s allies held a positive exchange ahead of Monday’s meeting with US President Trump and the video conference focused on key matters such as the need to stop the killing in Ukraine and the commitment to maintain full pressure on Russia via sanctions.
• German Chancellor Merz said the US is ready to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine, while he added they would have liked there to have been an agreement on a ceasefire and stated there are no territorial negotiations on Ukraine that are going over the heads of the Europeans. It was separately reported that Germany’s Foreign Minister said any Ukraine peace agreement requires security guarantees for Ukraine, and that Europe is ready to provide them together with the US.
• French President Macron said the situation ahead of talks in Washington is extremely serious for Ukraine and Europe, while he added they want Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected and want a strong and lasting peace for Ukraine. Macron said their goal for talks on Monday is to present a united front between Ukraine and its European allies, as well as warned that if they show weakness today in front of Russia, they are laying the ground for future conflicts. Furthermore, Macron said he thinks the answer is no to the question of whether he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace.
• Statement from the Nordic Baltic eight leaders noted that they will continue to arm Ukraine and enhance Europe’s defences to deter further Russian aggression, while they will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces saw a success for a second day in a row repelling a Russian assault near Dobropillya and Russia might step up frontline attacks in the coming days. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s military said its forces advanced up to two kilometres on the Sumy front.
• Russia said its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 300 Ukrainian drones, while it announced it hit a storage site for Ukrainian Sapsan operational-tactical missiles, according to IFAX. It was also reported that Russia’s FSB security service said it prevented a Ukrainian drone attack on the Smolensky nuclear power plant.
• US President Trump said in a pre-recorded interview with Fox that if they have to do sanctions, they will do it and the next meeting will have both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin.

OTHER

• US President Trump said he believes that Chinese President Xi will not act on Taiwan, while it was separately reported that Trump said Chinese President Xi told him that he would never invade Taiwan while Trump is President, while he also said that he and China are very patient, according to a Fox News interview.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK government discounts for electric vans and trucks have been extended with plug-in van and truck grants extended to at least 2027.
• Universities & Colleges Employers Association warned that UK ministers risk exacerbating staff job cuts at post-1992 universities in England and Wales unless they allow institutions more flexibility with their pension offerings, according to FT.
• ECB's Holzmann called for more transparency on the ECB's policy decisions in a last suggestion before departing the central bank this month.
• Moody’s affirmed Ireland at Aa3; Outlook Positive.

DATA RECAP

• UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Aug) -1.3% (Prev. -1.2%)
• UK Rightmove House Prices YY (Aug) 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)