• Trump hailed great progress at Putin meeting, but one or two significant items; no ceasefire was achieved.
• Trump to meet with European leaders and Zelensky later today; Zelensky supports trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia.
• Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
• European bourses are modestly lower in the aftermath of the Trump-Putin summit; US futures are mixed/modestly lower.
• DXY edges higher, EUR subdued post Trump-Putin, Antipodeans resilient.
• Bonds are bid, in-fitting with the apprehensive risk tone into an evening of US meetings.
• Crude complex initially little changed but now firmer ahead of US-Ukraine/EU/NATO today.
• Looking ahead, US President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European Leaders. Commentary from Fed's Bowman.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

MONDAY

• White House said US President Trump will greet Ukrainian President Zelensky at 13:00EDT/18:00BST on Monday and will participate in a bilateral meeting with Zelensky at 13:15EDT/18:15BST, while European leaders will arrive at the White House on Monday at 12:00EDT/17:00BST and President Trump will greet European leaders at 14:15EDT/19:15BST with a multilateral meeting to take place at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.
• "European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today 1) pin down more details on poss US security guarantees; 2) work on preparations for the poss trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3) push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps", via Eurasia.
• Click here for the Newsquawk multilateral meeting.

US

• US President Trump said they made great progress in the meeting with Russian President Putin which he said was "a 10" and there are just a few points left to agree upon and a few things left to resolve, but added there is no deal until there is a deal and there are one or two significant items left to agree on and it is ultimately up to NATO and Ukraine to agree. Trump said they negotiated on NATO, security and land, while he also stated that he could meet Putin again soon and could see a Moscow meeting possibly happening, as well as noted that Putin wants to see an end to the killing like he does.
• US President Trump commented on Truth Social that it was a great and very successful day in Alaska and that the meeting with Russian President Putin went very well, as did a late-night phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders. Trump added it was determined by all that the best way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is to go directly to a peace agreement and not a mere ceasefire agreement which often does not hold. Furthermore, he said Zelensky will visit the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, and if all works out, they will then schedule a meeting with Putin.
• US President Trump posted "President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!"
• US Special Envoy Witkoff said US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed at their summit that the US would be able to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions to get a peace deal and there were things discussed in the Trump-Putin meeting that have potential for breakthroughs to end the war. Rubio suggested that to end the war, there are things Russia and Ukraine want but cannot get and it may not be possible for the US to create a scenario to end the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, he said security guarantees will be discussed in Monday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and others, while Rubio added that he is not saying they are on the verge of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, but they saw enough movement to justify a follow-up meeting with Zelensky.
• US President Trump said in a pre-recorded interview with Fox that if they have to do sanctions, they will do it and the next meeting will have both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin.

UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for constructive cooperation and will travel to Washington D.C. on Monday, while he added that Ukraine reaffirms its readiness to work with maximum effort to achieve peace and the call with US President Trump and Europeans discussed positive signals and lasted for more than 90 minutes. Furthermore, he said Ukraine supports President Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia. It was separately reported that Zelensky said he emphasised to Trump that pressure on Russia should be stepped up and noted that security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky announced he arrived in the US and is grateful to President Trump for the invitation, while he added that they all equally want to end this war swiftly and securely, as well as hopes their shared strength with America and European friends will compel Russia to real peace.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces saw a success for a second day in a row repelling a Russian assault near Dobropillya and Russia might step up frontline attacks in the coming days. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s military said its forces advanced up to two kilometres on the Sumy front.

RUSSIA

• Russian President Putin said he is sincerely interested in ending the conflict, but all ‘root causes’ must be eliminated and all Russia’s concerns must be taken into account. Putin said negotiations were productive and useful. Putin said the personal meeting has been overdue and was necessary to rectify the situation, while he hopes that a mutual understanding will bring peace to Ukraine and he agrees with US President Trump on the need for Ukraine’s security. Furthermore, he said the agreements should be a starting point and that a Russia-US Investment partnership has huge potential. It was also reported that Putin told Trump that if Ukraine fully withdraws from eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia would freeze the front line in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It was also reported that the Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
• Senior Russian diplomat said Russia agrees any future peace agreement on Ukraine must provide security guarantees to Kyiv, but Moscow also needs guarantees, while the official said the West has not been thinking about security guarantees for Russia, and this needs to be corrected with Moscow ready to assist.
• Russia said its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 300 Ukrainian drones, while it announced it hit a storage site for Ukrainian Sapsan operational-tactical missiles, according to IFAX. It was also reported that Russia’s FSB security service said it prevented a Ukrainian drone attack on the Smolensky nuclear power plant.

EUROPE

• European leaders have been invited to join US President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Monday and it was reported that UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, Italian PM Meloni, Finland’s President Stubb, European Commission President von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Rutte will join the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Monday.
• European leaders issued a joint statement on the Trump-Putin summit in which they stated that they welcome US President Trump’s efforts and support for providing security guarantees, while they added that Russia cannot have a veto on Ukraine’s pathway to the EU and NATO.
• EU Council President Costa said transatlantic unity is paramount at this moment to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine and if no ceasefire is agreed, the EU and the US must increase pressure on Russia, while he added that Ukraine’s sovereign right to determine its conditions for peace must be respected.
• EU Commission spokesperson said Ukraine’s allies held a positive exchange ahead of Monday’s meeting with US President Trump and the video conference focused on key matters such as the need to stop the killing in Ukraine and the commitment to maintain full pressure on Russia via sanctions.
• German Chancellor Merz said the US is ready to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine, while he added they would have liked there to have been an agreement on a ceasefire and stated there are no territorial negotiations on Ukraine that are going over the heads of the Europeans. It was separately reported that Germany’s Foreign Minister said any Ukraine peace agreement requires security guarantees for Ukraine, and that Europe is ready to provide them together with the US.
• French President Macron said the situation ahead of talks in Washington is extremely serious for Ukraine and Europe, while he added they want Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected and want a strong and lasting peace for Ukraine. Macron said their goal for talks on Monday is to present a united front between Ukraine and its European allies, as well as warned that if they show weakness today in front of Russia, they are laying the ground for future conflicts. Furthermore, Macron said he thinks the answer is no to the question of whether he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace.
• Statement from the Nordic Baltic eight leaders noted that they will continue to arm Ukraine and enhance Europe’s defences to deter further Russian aggression, while they will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country's purchases of Russian oil.
• US government officially posted the Section 232 tariff codes for steel and aluminium products on Friday, in which the BIS is adding 407 Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) codes to the list of products that will be considered as steel or aluminium derivative products.
• White House Trade Advisor Navarro wrote in the FT that India's oil lobby is funding Russia's war machine which has to stop, while he added that if India wants to be treated as a strategic partner of the US, it needs to start acting like one.
• US negotiators’ August 25th visit to New Delhi for trade talks was called off and the current round of negotiations for a proposed US-India bilateral trade deal is now likely to be deferred to another date, according to NDTV Profit.
• EU push to prevent the US from targeting the bloc’s landmark digital rules is reportedly holding up a trade statement with the US, according to FT.
• German government spokesperson states that the US's role in potential Ukraine security guarantees will be discussed in Washington today. Chancellor Merz is among the attendees at tonight's Washington meeting.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened modestly lower across the board, and the risk tone continued to deteriorate as the morning progressed, with all major indices falling into negative territory; currently at lows.
• European sectors are split down the middle, in quiet trade. Utilities takes the top spot, joined closely by Real Estate and Health Care; the latter has been buoyed by upside in heavy-weight Novo Nordisk (+5.2%). The Co. benefits after receiving accelerated US FDA approval for liver disease MASH. Elsewhere, Vestas Wind Systems (+16%) gains after the US provided new guidance on renewable tax credits, essentially clarifying that projects can qualify under the One Big Beautiful Bill’s safe-harbor provision if they show physical work and not just early spending, to then access the Inflation Reduction Act credit.
• US equity futures (ES -0.2% NQ -0.2% RTY U/C) are modestly lower/mixed, with the downbeat mood seemingly a continuation of the pressure seen in Europe.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• DXY initially traded rangebound after last Friday's mixed data releases and with little fresh catalysts aside from the geopolitical headlines, while participants also look ahead to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. However, EUR-led weakness led to saw some modest upside in the Dollar index, to make a fresh peak at 98.06 (more below). Do note that there were comments from Fed's Daly over the weekend, who said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, while she noted that they have to be ahead to not be behind. DXY resides in a 97.78-98.06 range, vs Friday's 97.72-98.21 parameter. DXY today sees its 50 DMA at 98.08.
• EUR takes a breather from recent advances and trades on either side of 1.1700 with various European leaders set to visit the White House on Monday for talks with Trump and Zelensky. On this front, "European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today: 1) pin down more details on possible US security guarantees; 2) work on preparations for the possible trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3) push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps", via Eurasia. EUR/USD resides in a current 1.1672-1.1716 range with the 50 DMA at 1.1637.
• USD/JPY gradually edged higher north of the 147.00 level overnight with the Japanese currency marginally pressured amid the outperformance in Japanese stocks. USD/JPY trades in a current 147.06-147.58 range, well within Friday's 146.74-147.89 range, with the 50 DMA at 146.54 and the 200 DMA at 149.25.
• GBP continues to struggle for direction amid quiet pertinent newsflow and with very little scheduled for the UK at the start of the week before Wednesday's inflation data. GBP/USD trades in a 1.3532-1.3565 range.
• Antipodeans remain afloat despite the firmer dollar and downward tilt in risk sentiment, and losses across most base metals, with traders also eyeing the widely expected rate cut at the RBNZ meeting scheduled mid-week. There is nothing obvious to explain the resilience in the non-US dollars.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1322 vs exp. 7.1793 (Prev. 7.1371).
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• A morning of modest gains for the complex. Driven higher by the apprehensive risk tone after the fallout of the Alaska summit. In brief, no ceasefire was agreed upon, but we did see Russian President Putin say that they would be willing to freeze the southern front lines in exchange for Ukraine withdrawing from certain regions. USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks so far, at a 111-26+ peak. If the move continues, then we look to the 111-30+ peak from last Friday before the figure and then last week’s peak at 112-14.
• Bunds are firmer, in-fitting with USTs. Reacting to the risk tone and more so than USTs at this moment in time, perhaps as the geopolitical equation directly adds in European leaders today. As it stands, Bunds have notched a 129.18 peak with upside of almost 40 ticks at most. While relatively pronounced, we remain some way shy of 129.62 from last Friday and then the 130.06 peak from last week.
• Gilts again, echoes of the above, but caught between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitude. The UK is also exposed to the evening’s meetings as PM Starmer is in attendance. Into the meeting, Gilts have eased ever so slightly from a 91.32 peak where they notched gains of just over 20 ticks. As is the case with peers, this has stalled before Friday’s 91.68 peak before the figure and then last week’s 92.37 best.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Oil was little changed with demand constrained following the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, which President Trump said had made great progress, while he is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House today. More recently, oil prices have caught a slight bid, and currently reside at the top-end of recent ranges. Nothing really behind the latest bout of upside, but potentially as traders digest the weekend's Russia/Ukraine developments. WTI currently resides in a USD 61.65-62.52/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.47-66.31/bbl range.
• Two-way trade across precious metals and gained after rebounding from an initial dip, with few catalysts outside of geopolitics. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex eking mild gains, with spot gold trading on either side of its 50 DMA (3,349.60/oz) in a USD 3,323.68-3,358.49/oz range.
• Copper eked out marginal gains overnight amid the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific region. However, dollar strength and a worsening of sentiment in the European morning prompted the base metals complex to trade mostly in negative territory. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,727.55-9,770.30/t range.
• Indian Oil Corp Exec says processed 24% Russian oil in June quarter (prev. 14% in March quarter)
• UBS reiterates its end-2025 and March 2026 Brent crude oil view to USD 62/bbl, on higher supply front South America and resilient output from sanctioned countries.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Tehran will continue talks with the IAEA.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports a heavy rain event caused the release at 236k bpd, Joliet Illinois Refinery.
• Hungarian Foreign Minister says Russian oil flows to Hungary are halted after the Ukrainian attack on pipeline transformer station.
• NHC says Category 4 Hurricane Erin located just east of the Southeast Bahamas; Life-threatening surf and rip currents likely across the US Eastern Seaboard this week.
• Ukraine's foreign minister states that Hungary has made efforts to sustain its dependence on Russian oil.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Aug) -1.3% (Prev. -1.2%); YY (Aug) 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)
• EU Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur (Jun) 7.0B EU vs. Exp. 13.0B EU (Prev. 16.2B EU, Rev. 16.5B EU)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• UK government discounts for electric vans and trucks have been extended with plug-in van and truck grants extended to at least 2027.
• Universities & Colleges Employers Association warned that UK ministers risk exacerbating staff job cuts at post-1992 universities in England and Wales unless they allow institutions more flexibility with their pension offerings, according to FT.
• ECB's Holzmann called for more transparency on the ECB's policy decisions in a last suggestion before departing the central bank this month.
• Moody’s affirmed Ireland at Aa3; Outlook Positive.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said a couple of cuts are warranted this year and maybe a few more, while she added that they have to be ahead in order to not be behind and that Fed officials have to balance inflation and labour mandates. Daly also stated that the economy has slowed but is not slow, and there is still room to recalibrate the policy rate.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel’s navy carried out an attack against a power station south of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Sunday.
• Israel’s military began providing tents and shelter equipment for Gazans in preparation for relocating residents from combat zones to southern Gaza.
• Hamas said the entry of tents by Israel into the southern Gaza Strip under ‘humanitarian arrangements’ is blatant deception and the new Israeli relocation plan is a new wave of genocide and displacement.
• Israel PM Netanyahu has "recently intensified his meetings with close associates in preparation for the possibility of early elections", via Al Jazeera citing sources.
• "Hamas has received a new offer from the mediators for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and is expected to respond to it today", according to Israeli journalist citing Qatar's Al-Arabi TV.
• "A diplomatic source involved in the negotiations between Egypt and Qatar and Hamas told me that in light of the fact that there was not enough progress in yesterday's talks in Cairo", according to Axios' Ravid.

OTHER

• US President Trump said he believes that Chinese President Xi will not act on Taiwan, while it was separately reported that Trump said Chinese President Xi told him that he would never invade Taiwan while Trump is President, while he also said that he and China are very patient, according to a Fox News interview.
• Chinese Foreign Ministry on US President Trump's comments on China, says will not allow anyone or any force to separate Taiwan from China in any way.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is on the backfoot and trades just under USD 115k; Ethereum sinks below USD 4.3k, and underperforms vs peers.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks began the week mostly higher following the recent Trump-Putin summit which was said to have made great progress, although some of the gains were capped as the attention turned to President Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders later today. Focus this week will also be on Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• ASX 200 was ultimately little changed following a choppy performance and after having pulled back from an early fresh record high, with earnings releases remaining in the spotlight including the latest results from big four bank NAB.
• Nikkei 225 resumed its rally to fresh record highs with little fresh drivers to derail the current momentum for Tokyo stocks.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mostly constructive mood in the region with sentiment also helped after President Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country's purchases of Russian oil, while the PBoC Q2 Monetary Policy Implementation Report on Friday noted that China’s economic operation still faces many risks and challenges, but made numerous pledges including to further improve the monetary policy framework, implement and refine moderately loose monetary policy.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese authorities have increased calls on investors to pay taxes on their global gains, forcing wealthy individuals to reassess their trading strategies as Beijing tries to boost its funds to counter economic pressures, according to FT.
• India's federal government proposes reducing the GST rate on small cars to 18% from 28% and proposes lowering GST rate on health and life insurance premiums to a maximum of 5% from the current 18%, according to a source cited by Reuters.
• China's Commerce Ministry is to extend the investigation into EU dairy products to 21st February 2026.