• APAC stocks eventually traded mostly firmer following the positive Wall Street performance on Friday, albeit participants remain cautious ahead of a risk-packed week that culminates with Friday’s US jobs report.
• US President Trump said he will discuss the looming government shutdown with congressional leaders on Monday and believes Democrats may want to make a deal; he added that if Democrats refuse to make a deal, "the country closes", according to Reuters.
• The Trump administration is reportedly considering tariffs on foreign electronic devices based on the number of chips in each device, according to Reuters sources.OPEC+ will likely raise oil production quotas by at least 137k bpd at its October 5th meeting, according to Reuters, citing sources.
• European equity futures are indicative of a firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after cash closed +1.0% on Friday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish CPI Flash (Sep), EZ Sentiment (Sep).  ECB’s Cipollone, Muller, Kazaks, Schnabel, Lane, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Waller, Hammack, Musalem, Williams, Bostic, and UK Chancellor Reeves. Events include Bank of Israel Announcement, Labour Party Conference (29th Sept - 1st Oct). Earnings from Jefferies, Carnival.

SNAPSHOT

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks ended the week higher, drawing strength from the August PCE report which showed all key inflation metrics in line with expectations.
• Sectors were broadly firmer; Consumer Discretionary and Utilities led gains, while Consumer Staples lagged after Costco fell on weaker same-store sales.
• SPX +0.59% at 6,644, NDX +0.44% at 24,504, DJIA +0.65% at 46,247, RUT +0.97% at 2,434.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed Governor Miran said models may overstate the impact of immigration on inflation, according to Reuters.
• Fed’s Bowman (voter) said recent data shows a materially more fragile labour market and that inflation excluding tariffs is hovering not far above target. She said it is time for the FOMC to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labour market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility, noting that recent data, including benchmark payroll revisions, suggest the Fed is at serious risk of already being behind the curve. She warned that if conditions continue, there may be a need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward. Bowman added the Fed should shift from overweighting the latest data points to a proactive forward-looking approach, expects inflation to return to the 2% target after the one-time adjustment from tariffs, and said a balance sheet tilted toward shorter-dated securities would offer more flexibility. She said she prefers a gradual approach to rate changes, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump posted an image of himself “firing” Fed Chair Powell, via Truth Social.
• New York City Mayor Eric Adams dropped his bid for re-election, according to the New York Post.
• US President Trump said he will discuss the looming government shutdown with congressional leaders on Monday and believes Democrats may want to make a deal; he added that if Democrats refuse to make a deal, "the country closes", according to Reuters.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• The Trump administration is reportedly considering tariffs on foreign electronic devices based on the number of chips in each device, according to Reuters sources.
• The White House said the latest pharmaceutical tariffs do not apply to countries with negotiated trade deals, according to Bloomberg.
• Britain would face 100% tariffs on US pharmaceuticals under US President Trump’s latest plan, according to Reuters citing sources.
• The UK will offer to pay more for drugs in a bid to placate US President Trump and pharmaceutical groups, according to the FT.
• The White House will honour a 15% cap on pharmaceutical tariffs as part of trade deals with the EU and Japan, according to CNBC.
• A US official said India trade talks are on a positive track but stressed that India needs to address US market access concerns, the trade deficit, and purchases of Russian oil, according to Reuters.
• US soybean farmers face a crisis as China halts purchases amid the tariff dispute, according to Reuters.
• The EU is plotting a “devastating tariff hit” against UK steelmakers, with officials in Brussels aiming to halve the UK’s tariff-free quotas and double tariffs to 50% under pressure from steel industries in member states, according to The Times.
• South Korea rejected a US request for USD 350bln in cash under a tariff-reduction deal, a senior official said, according to Reuters.

NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES

• Electronic Arts (EA) is near a roughly USD 50bln deal to go private, according to WSJ.
• Chinese factory workers are facing harsh conditions while racing to produce Apple’s (AAPL) new iPhone 17 lineup, according to China Labour Watch.
• US Vice President JD Vance said he is confident the US has separated TikTok from ByteDance, according to Reuters.
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is said to be in talks to sell its OxyChem petrochemical unit in a deal worth at least USD 10bln, according to the FT.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks eventually traded mostly firmer following the positive Wall Street performance on Friday, albeit participants remain cautious ahead of a risk-packed week that culminates with Friday’s US jobs report.
• ASX 200 advanced, led by strength in gold miners and a rebound in healthcare, while traders looked ahead to tomorrow’s RBA decision in which Australia's Big 4 banks expect no change in rates.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed amid yen strength, with sentiment also weighed by the ex-dividend date for end-of-month payouts and risk trimming ahead of the BoJ Tankan Survey and the LDP leadership vote later in the week.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially diverged, with Hong Kong buoyed by tech gains and foreign inflows. The Mainland swung between modest gains and losses heading into its weeklong break amid National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival, whilst reports also suggested Chinese President Xi is reportedly planning to press US President Trump to formally state that the US opposes Taiwan’s independence, according to WSJ.
• KOSPI was lifted with tech spearheading the gains, whilst reports over the weekend suggested South Korea rejected a US request for USD 350bln in cash under a tariff-reduction deal.
• Nifty 50 traded with cautious gains after Friday's losses, and with traders looking ahead to the RBI policy announcement later this week.
• US equity futures were firmer (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.4%), edging higher after a flat reopen as participants braced for ISM data, labour market figures, and the looming US government funding deadline.
• European equity futures are indicative of a firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after cash closed +1.0% on Friday.

FX

• DXY started flat but drifted lower despite the absence of fresh headlines, as markets remained cautious over the looming US government shutdown and awaited key releases including ISM PMIs and Friday’s jobs report. The index slipped beneath its 50DMA (98.02) and the 98.00 mark, trading in a 97.929–98.146 band, with the September 25th low at 97.737 the next key downside level.
• EUR/USD ticked higher in moves dictated by broader dollar weakness amid a quiet EU-specific backdrop. The pair traded between 1.1703–1.1729, with attention on the 21DMA at 1.1734 and last Thursday’s high at 1.1753 as resistance levels.
• GBP/USD was also firmer, moving in tandem with the dollar and finding a firmer footing above 1.3400, with focus turning to the 50DMA at 1.3464 on the topside, while UK-specific catalysts were light overnight.
• USD/JPY slipped, with the yen firmer as Japanese participants positioned for a pivotal week featuring the BoJ Tankan Survey (Wednesday), US Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday), and the LDP leadership election (Saturday). The pair tested and eventually breached 149.00 to the downside from a 149.51 high, a move coinciding with DXY’s break below 98.00. Key support lies at last Thursday’s trough of 148.54 and the 200DMA at 148.43.
• Antipodeans evenutally gained after both initially struggled to fully benefit from the softer dollar amid a cautious risk tone at the time. Attention stays on tomorrow’s RBA meeting, where markets price only a slim 8% chance of a 25bps cut with consensus for no change. Antipodeans showed little reaction to the firmer CNY fixing by the PBoC.
• Yuan firmed after the PBoC set its daily fix surprisingly stronger, against expectations for a weaker setting, ahead of China’s week-long holiday starting mid-week.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1089 vs exp. 7.1258 (Prev. 7.1152)

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures edged higher after Friday’s choppy trade that saw the contract finish slightly lower. Gains were modest as sentiment in APAC remained mixed for most of the session following a weekend of geopolitical updates, with traders mindful of the looming US government shutdown and this week’s key risk events, including ISM PMIs and the jobs report.
• Bund futures held a mild upward bias, steadying above the 128.00 handle. Price action comes after Friday’s reports that the EU will face a 15% pharma tariff rather than 100%, while focus today is on a heavy ECB speaker slate including Cipollone, Muller, Kazaks, Schnabel, and Lane.
• 10yr JGB futures opened firmer with modest gains across the curve, supported by pre-auction positioning. Desks note expectations for a larger concession into this week’s 10yr auction, with secondary yields only a few basis points above the prior sale, while supply in the tenor is set to carry more of the load into Q4 as super-long issuance is trimmed.
• BoJ offered to buy JPY 325bln in 3-5yr JGBs, JPY 350bln in 5-10yr, JPY 75bln in >25yr, and JPY 50bln in I/L JGBs; all unchanged from the prior.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures traded softer after weekend reports suggested OPEC+ will likely raise oil output quotas by at least 137k bpd at its October 5th meeting. Sentiment was further pressured by comments from Iraq’s Oil Minister that flows via Türkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline are set to resume at roughly 180–190k bpd. Geopolitical headlines were mixed, with the US and Israel reportedly very close to an agreement on US President Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza, whilst Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine and Ukrainian drones targeting a Russian oil pumping station in Chuvashia provided little upside support.
• Spot gold advanced to a fresh all-time high above USD 3,800/oz as the softer dollar and a raft of geopolitical tensions, coupled with the risk of a US government shutdown, underpinned demand ahead of US ISM PMIs and Friday’s jobs report.
• Copper futures held a modestly firmer bias on dollar weakness, though gains were capped by the mixed risk tone for most of the session and caution into this week’s US data and event risk.
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: Oil +6 at 424, Natgas -1 at 117, Total +7 at 549.
• OPEC+ will likely raise oil production quotas by at least 137k bpd at its October 5th meeting, according to Reuters, citing sources.
• An Iraqi OPEC delegate said the country can boost exports beyond current levels once the Iraq–Turkey pipeline resumes and new projects come online, according to the state news agency.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was steady overnight with a mild downward bias as it traded on both sides of USD 112,000.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China’s top economic planner, the NDRC, held a symposium on Sunday hosted by agency head Zheng Shanjie, inviting private enterprises to submit opinions and suggestions on expanding effective investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–30), according to the NDRC’s official WeChat account via Global Times.
• Taiwan is eyeing an expanded tech presence in India amid surging US demand, according to the chief of a trade body, Reuters reported.

GEOPOLITICS

NATO

• The EU will draw up plans to build and help finance interlinked drone defences across the continent’s borders and critical infrastructure, according to the FT.
• Russian President Putin is to deliver a major speech this week, according to multiple media outlets.
• Belarus's President said that if NATO threatens to shoot down Russian and Belarusian fighter jets, the response will come immediately, according to Reuters.
• NATO will boost its presence in the Baltic region following drone incidents in Denmark, according to Reuters.
• Denmark announced that unknown drones were spotted over several military facilities on Friday night, including the country’s main air base Karup, which houses Denmark’s F-16s and F-35s, according to Reuters.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russian missiles and drones struck Ukraine in a “savage” 12-hour attack, according to Reuters.
• Russian sources said the Russian army launched strikes targeting military sites in Kyiv and its surroundings, as well as weapons depots and air defence systems.
• Poland closed its airspace after a “massive” Russian attack on Ukraine’s capital killed at least four people, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump told Ukrainian President Zelensky he was open to providing new long-range weapons and to lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American-made long-range weapons to strike inside Russia, though he did not commit to doing so during their Tuesday meeting, according to WSJ citing a senior US official and a Ukrainian official.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he expects new EU sanctions on Russia this week, according to Reuters.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said no one expects a return to Ukraine’s 2022 borders, calling it politically blind, according to Reuters.
• Ukraine said drones struck an oil pumping station in Russia’s Chuvashia region, according to Reuters.
• The Kremlin said it has received no signals from Kyiv regarding the resumption of Russia-Ukraine talks, via RIA.

ISRAEL-HAMAS

• US President Trump told Axios his 21-point Gaza peace plan is in the final stages, saying it could end the war and open the way for wider Middle East peace. The plan, drafted by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, includes a permanent ceasefire, release of hostages within 48 hours, gradual Israeli withdrawal, release of Palestinian prisoners, a post-war governing mechanism in Gaza without Hamas, Arab and Muslim funding, disarmament of Hamas, amnesty or safe passage for its members, no Israeli annexation of Gaza or the West Bank, an Israeli commitment not to attack Qatar again, and a future path to Palestinian statehood after reforms to the Palestinian Authority, according to Axios.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed President Trump’s 21-point Gaza peace plan, saying priorities are freeing hostages and dismantling Hamas while expressing doubt over Palestinian Authority reform, according to Fox News.
• Israel’s Channel 12 reported that turning the Gaza Strip into an international trade zone is one of the clauses of the Trump plan.
• Israel is ready to consider withdrawing from a number of areas in Syria where IDF forces are deployed, but not from the Hermon Crown, according to Kann News.
• Israel’s Kan TV quoted a source close to PM Netanyahu as saying there are “significant gaps” between him and the White House over the terms of ending the war in the Gaza Strip.
• US President Trump told Reuters in a phone interview that he has gotten a "very good response" from Israel and Arab leaders to the Gaza peace plan proposal, adding that "everybody wants to make the deal" and he hopes to finalize it in a meeting with Netanyahu on Monday; he said the proposal is aimed not just at Gaza but at reaching a broader peace in the Middle East, according to Reuters.
• The US and Israel are reportedly very close to an agreement on President Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza, though Hamas still needs to agree, according to officials cited by Axios.

IRAN

• The UK’s UN envoy on Friday said UN sanctions will be reimposed on Iran this weekend, according to Reuters.
• A Russian and Chinese push to delay the return of Iran sanctions for six months failed at the UN Security Council, according to Reuters.
• Russia’s Deputy UN Envoy said the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran could have very adverse consequences and lead to an escalation in the Middle East, according to Reuters.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu told Fox News that 450 kilos of enriched uranium remain, saying Israel knows where it is and shares that information with the US, and that both countries knew before bombing Iranian nuclear sites they would not be able to eliminate it.
• An Iranian Armed Forces spokesman said nuclear energy is a national need and that Iran will not abandon it, according to Reuters.
• Iraqi media reported the discovery of an unidentified spy drone near the border with Iran.
• Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee said the country has not yet withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, according to Reuters.
• The European Troika warned Iran against any “escalatory” actions following the reimposition of sanctions, according to Reuters.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said the US offered to postpone snapback sanctions by three months if Tehran handed over all its enriched uranium.

OTHERS

• The US is preparing options for military strikes on drug targets inside Venezuela, with potential drone strikes on traffickers and labs being considered, though President Trump has not yet approved any action and talks are ongoing through Middle Eastern intermediaries, according to NBC News.
• US President Trump plans to attend a gathering of top generals and admirals in Virginia this week, an event described as a “pep rally” for senior military brass where Defense Secretary Hegseth will outline his vision of the Pentagon as the “Department of War” and set new standards for military personnel, according to CNN.
• The Israeli army announced it bombed a Hezbollah weapons depot in southern Lebanon, according to Reuters.
• Chinese President Xi is reportedly planning to press US President Trump to formally state that the US opposes Taiwan’s independence, according to WSJ.
• Pro-EU party won Moldova polls with over 50% of vote, according to AFP citing the official results.
• The North Korean and Chinese Foreign Ministers held talks, though details remain limited, according to KCNA.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM Starmer urged Labour to unite for the “fight of our lives” against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, as Starmer faces dire poll ratings and questions over his leadership ahead of the party conference, while ministers unveiled plans for three new towns as part of a broader housebuilding push, according to the FT.
• UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves risks a confrontation with the head of the government’s fiscal watchdog over plans to scrap her annual spring forecast, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Makhlouf said the ECB is “near the bottom” of its easing cycle but will need to remain vigilant as the impact of tariffs on most EU exports is still to feed through. He added that his mind is not set on how to vote at the upcoming meeting at the end of October, according to FT.
• German Chancellor Merz said commitments for corporate investment in Germany will total EUR 900mln over the next three years, according to Reuters.
• Bank of Italy kept the countercyclical capital buffer for banks in Q4 at zero, according to Reuters.
• Portugal will raise taxes on foreign home buyers amid a surge in property prices, according to Reuters.
• Switzerland voted to abolish a century-old system of taxing property, a move that will lower dues for homeowners and potentially boost real estate prices, according to Reuters.
• The head of Switzerland’s right-wing People’s Party said the government needs to find a compromise with UBS (UBSG SW) to raise the bank’s capital requirements, according to Reuters.

GLOBAL

• Türkiye's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority said a 5.4 magnitude earthquake struck Kütahya province in western Turkey, according to Reuters.