• US President Trump announced on Friday that the US is to impose a tariff of 100% on China beginning on November 1st, which will be over and above any tariffs that they are currently paying, while US export controls on critical software will also start on November 1st.
• US President Trump posted on Sunday, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
• APAC stocks began the week in the red as the region reacted to last Friday's Trump tariff threats and the subsequent Wall St sell-off, although US equity futures rebounded due to the softer tone from Trump over the weekend, while Japanese markets were shut for a holiday.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.7% on Friday.
• US BLS said it will publish the September CPI report on Friday, 24th October 2025, at 08:30EDT/13:30BST.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German WPI (Sep), OPEC MOMR, Speakers including BoE’s Mann, Fed’s Paulson & RBA’s Hauser. Holidays: US Columbus Day (US bond market will be closed) & Canadian Thanksgiving.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks plummeted on Friday and havens rallied after US President Trump reignited trade concerns as he threatened massive tariffs on China in response to China's rare earth export controls and noted that other countermeasures are also under consideration. He also said there is seemingly no need for an in-person meeting with Chinese President Xi, given the escalations.
• The post on Truth hit global equities hard, with all indices in the red and sectors also whacked, aside from Consumer Staples. The dollar was sold on the news as it raises trade uncertainty and antipodes were hit the hardest, given their exposure to China, while the Yen and Swiss Franc outperformed. Furthermore, oil prices were sold in the risk-off trade, adding to the post-Gaza ceasefire downside.
• SPX -2.71% at 6,553, NDX -3.49% at 24,222, DJI -1.90% at 45,480, RUT -3.01% at 2,395.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump announced on Friday that the US is to impose a tariff of 100% on China beginning on November 1st, which will be over and above any tariffs that they are currently paying, while US export controls on critical software will also start on November 1st.
• US President Trump said on Friday that he has not cancelled the meeting with Chinese President Xi and assumes they might have it. Furthermore, Trump posted on Sunday “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
• US VP Vance called on Beijing to "choose the path of reason" amid escalating trade tensions with China and said President Trump has "far more cards" if an aggressive response is required.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said the October 9th rare earth export control measures are legitimate and designed to better safeguard world peace and regional stability, while it added that rare earth export control measures do not constitute a ban on exports, and applications that meet the requirements will be granted licences. MOFCOM said the US announcement of 100% tariffs on China represents a classic case of double standards, and since the US-China talks in Madrid, the US has continuously introduced a series of new restrictions against China. It also stated that China’s position on tariff wars has been consistent, whereby they do not want to fight but are not afraid to fight. Furthermore, China urged the US to promptly correct its erroneous practices and warned that should the US persist in its course, China will resolutely take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, as well as noted that the US decision to impose port fees on relevant Chinese vessels meant China “had no choice but to take countermeasures”, and that China’s decision to impose a special port fee on US-related vessels are necessary defensive actions.
• China Customs spokesperson said US measures on shipping fees are a typical show of unilateralism and protectionism, while the spokesperson added that China’s countermeasures are necessary and are defensive actions. Furthermore, it was stated that China’s measures aim to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese industries and firms, while they hope the US can face up to its own 'mistakes' and that the US gets back to the correct track of communication and negotiations.
• USTR Greer said the US reached out for a call with China after the export controls announcement, but Beijing deferred. It was also reported that Greer said significant progress was made in trade talks with Cambodia that will allow more export opportunities for US farmers.
• US said it is taking action to defend America from the UN’s first global carbon tax and that the administration unequivocally rejects this proposal, while the US is considering actions against nations that support this global carbon tax on American consumers. Furthermore, the US said possible actions include probes, visa restrictions, commercial penalties, additional port fees and sanctions on officials.
• Canadian Industry Minister Joly said the government is working on a new industrial strategy that seeks to open new markets for exporters and prioritise domestic procurement in the face of US tariffs, which have hurt steel, aluminium, forestry and automotive companies. It was also reported that Canadian Trade Minister Sidhu spoke with India’s Commerce Minister Goyal.
• Switzerland and China will accelerate trade discussions on upgrading their free-trade agreement, following a meeting between Swiss Foreign Minister Cassis and Chinese counterpart Wang on Friday.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed's Musalem (2025 voter) said on Friday that the Fed’s goals are in tension, inflation is running high and the labour market is showing signs of potential weakness. Musalem said a balanced approach to monetary policy only works if inflation expectations are anchored, and they are less able to respond to short-term labour market fluctuations if inflation expectations become unanchored. Furthermore, he is open-minded on a potential further rate cut as further insurance and believes they should tread with caution, as well as noted limited room for further easing before policy gets overly accommodative.
• Federal Reserve said on Friday that Industrial Production data will not be released on October 17th because it relies on other government data that is not available.
• US BLS said it will publish the September CPI report on Friday, 24th October 2025, at 08:30EDT/13:30BST.
• US President Trump said on Friday that layoffs will be Democrat-oriented and it will be a lot of people. Trump separately commented that he is using his authority to direct the defence secretary to use all available funds to get troops paid on October 15th, while he added they identified funds to do this and Secretary Hegseth will use them to pay troops.
• US VP Vance said they have to lay off some federal workers to preserve essential benefits, while he responded that the ‘President is looking at all his options’ when asked if Trump is considering invoking the Insurrection Act. Furthermore, he said that the Justice Department is not acting on orders by President Trump to prosecute his political opponents.
• White House official said on Friday that federal layoffs will be in the thousands. It was also reported that the Trump administration laid off dozens of CDC officials, according to NYT.
• New research suggested that the upcoming easing of capital rules could unlock USD 2.6tln in lending capacity for US banks and increase pressure on regulators elsewhere to follow suit, according to FT.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks began the week in the red as the region reacted to last Friday's Trump tariff threats and the subsequent Wall St sell-off, although US equity futures rebounded due to the softer tone from Trump over the weekend, while Japanese markets were shut for a holiday.
• ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech, energy, telecoms and defensives, while gold miners are at the other end of the spectrum after prices rebounded back above the USD 4,000/oz level to touch fresh record highs.
• KOSPI retreated amid tech weakness, and with index heavyweight Samsung Electronics pressured after it was hit by a USD 445.5mln jury verdict for infringing wireless communication patents.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following the flare-up of US-China trade frictions on Friday after US President Trump threatened massive tariffs on China and announced to impose a 100% additional tariff on China from November 1st, before softening his tone over the weekend, while participants digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed both exports and imports topped forecasts.
• US equity futures rebounded at the open with the TACO trade in play after US President Trump softened his tone on China over the weekend, in which he stated, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!" and that the US wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.7% on Friday.

FX

• DXY traded within relatively tight parameters amid the mixed performance against peers and recent tariff-related market volatility, with weekend headlines mainly centred around US-China trade tensions and Trump's eventual softening of tone. Furthermore, trading conditions stateside are thinned owing to Columbus Day in the US and Thanksgiving Day in Canada, while data releases this week remain impacted by a lack of progress to reopen the government, although the BLS will publish the September CPI report on October 24th.
• EUR/USD eked minimal gains in rangebound trade with ECB’s Vujcic suggesting he’s comfortable with current policy settings as he noted that “markets predict that interest rates will stay where they are” and stated "they are at a good place". Attention also remained on the political situation in France, where Lecornu returned as French PM and a new government was unveiled ahead of the budget deadline.
• GBP/USD lingered near Friday's best levels but with price action contained by a lack of pertinent catalysts, while press reports noted that UK Chancellor Reeves is eyeing up a GBP 7bln tax raid on pensions to plug a black hole in the Budget.
• USD/JPY unwound some of the recent haven flows but with a further recovery capped amid the Japanese holiday closure.
• Antipodeans nursed some of their recent losses with outperformance in AUD/USD amid a rebound in commodity prices, while participants also digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed exports and imports both topped estimates.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures pared some of last week's advances as global risk sentiment got some reprieve from Friday's tariff-related turmoil, although the reversal was limited, with US bond markets closed on Monday due to Columbus Day.
• Bund futures eased back from around a monthly high with demand constrained ahead of German Wholesale Prices and amid the absence of bond market participants in both Japan and the US.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures bounced back from last week's trough as global sentiment found some solace from the softer tone by US President Trump regarding China during the weekend, although the rebound has further to go to reclaim the losses seen during Friday's session, where prices tumbled alongside risk-off trade to extend on the post-Gaza ceasefire downside.
• Iraq set November Basrah medium crude Official Selling Price to Asia at plus USD 0.85/bbl vs Oman/Dubai and set the OSP to Europe at minus USD 2.80/bbl vs Dated Brent, while it set the OSP to North and South America at minus USD 1.40/bbl vs ASCI, according to SOMO.
• Spot gold rebounded from the pullback late last week and returned to above the USD 4,000/oz level to touch a record high.
• Copper futures clawed back the majority of Friday's losses with the TACO trade spurred by US President Trump's post to not worry about China and suggested an openness for a deal with China.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was choppy overnight after partially rebounding from last Friday's crypto meltdown.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China Customs Vice Minister said great efforts are needed to stabilise foreign trade in Q4 and that China's foreign trade showed resilience with improving structure in Q1-Q3, but the current external environment is still complex and grim with rising uncertainties.
• US FCC chair said on Friday that US ecommerce websites were removing millions of prohibited Chinese electronic items from companies like Huawei.
• Dutch government said it is intervening in Dutch chipmaker Nexperia and stated that there are serious administrative shortcomings at Nexperia, while it added that intervention means it may block or reverse company decisions and that the Co. is a subsidiary of Chinese electronics manufacturer Wingtech (600745 CH).
• Japan's main opposition was reported on Friday to weigh a unified PM candidate to block LDP President Takaichi as PM, while it seeks to form an alliance with other opposition parties, according to Nikkei.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Sep) 645.5B (Prev. 727.7B)
• Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Sep) 8.4% (Prev. 4.8%)
• Chinese Imports YY (CNY)(Sep) 7.5% (Prev. 1.7%)
• Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Sep) 90.45B vs Exp. 98.96B (Prev. 102.33B)
• Chinese Exports YY (Sep) 8.3% vs Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 4.4%)
• Chinese Imports YY (Sep) 7.4% vs Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.3%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Egypt will host an international summit on Monday regarding the agreement to end the war in Gaza which will be attended by more than 20 leaders, including US President Trump. It was also reported that UK PM Starmer will travel to Egypt to attend the signing ceremony of the Gaza peace plan, while French President Macron and European Council President Costa will also attend the peace summit in Egypt on Monday.
• Israeli government spokesperson said the release of hostages will begin early Monday morning and it expects all 20 living hostages to be released together at one time, while Palestinian prisoners will be released once all hostages set to be released on Monday are received.
• Israeli army radio announced that the first 6 hostages are to be released in Gaza City, while it was reported that Hamas published the names of the 20 hostages to be released.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said the possibility of Iran joining the Abraham Accords is US President Trump’s wishful thinking and Iran will never recognise an ‘occupier regime, which has committed genocide and killed children’, while he added that Tehran sees no reason for nuclear talks with European powers. Furthermore, he noted that Tehran and Washington are exchanging messages through mediators and that Tehran welcomes a potential ‘fair and balanced’ US nuclear proposal, but stated they have not received any request for nuclear negotiations from any country so far.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said he may tell Russian President Putin that he may send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if the war is not settled.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a good, productive conversation with US President Trump and discussed strengthening air defence, while he is grateful for US readiness to support. Zelensky separately commented that they would only use Tomahawk missiles to pursue military goals, not to attack civilians in Russia, although he also noted that Trump has not yet made a decision on supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine and that he is waiting for Trump’s decision.
• Ukrainian drone struck Russia’s Bashneft oil refinery in Ufa.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian troops hit fuel and energy infrastructure facilities of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, while it reported on Sunday morning that Russia shot down 72 Ukrainian drones over the previous day.
• UK Ministry of Defence said two Royal Air Force aircraft flew a 12-hour mission on Thursday with the US and NATO as they patrolled the border of Russia.

OTHER

• Pakistan’s military said 22 Pakistani soldiers were killed and more than 200 died on the Afghan side in border clashes. Furthermore, Pakistan Foreign Minister said they expect the Taliban government to take concrete measures against terrorist elements and perpetrators that wish to derail Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, while Pakistan will take all possible measures to defend its own territory, sovereignty and people.
• Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister said Qatar and Saudi Arabia intervened for mediation after Saturday night firing between Afghanistan and Pakistan, while the official added that they have other ways to handle the situation if Pakistan does not want to engage in dialogue.
• Philippines said a government vessel was rammed by a Chinese ship at sea, while China’s Coast Guard said two Philippine government vessels ‘illegally entered’ waters near Sandy Cay without authorisation, which resulted in a collision, for which the Philippine side bears full responsibility. Furthermore, the Chinese Coast Guard stated that it lawfully took control measures against Philippine vessels and resolutely expelled them.
• North Korean Leader Kim held talks with Russia’s Medvedev and said the military must evolve to destroy all threats, while Kim said the nation’s military heroism will not only be seen in the defence of North Korea but also in outposts of socialist construction. Furthermore, Kim told Medvedev that he hopes to continue to strengthen cooperation between the two countries and closely engage in diverse exchanges and contacts to achieve common goals, according to KCNA.
• China and North Korea pledged to develop strategic communication and will strengthen strategic cooperation.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM Starmer was reported on Friday to have ordered a last-minute rewrite of the UK government’s flagship planning bill as he attempts to boost growth and patch up the public finances ahead of the November Budget, according to FT.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is bumping up her plans for tax increases and spending cuts in the November Budget in order to create billions of pounds of additional fiscal “headroom” for the Treasury against future economic shocks, according to FT. It was separately reported that UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly eyeing up a GBP 7bln tax raid on pensions in a desperate bid to plug a black hole in the Budget, with experts warning that Reeves could push up taxes both on pension contributions paid by working people, and on withdrawals by retirees, according to the Express. Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Chancellor Reeves has signalled that wealthier households will be asked to “contribute more” in her Budget next month.
• ECB’s Vujcic suggested he’s comfortable with the current policy settings as he noted that “Markets predict that interest rates will stay where they are,” and stated that “We are at a good place.”
• Lecornu was re-appointed as French PM on Friday and has been tasked with forming a French government. Furthermore, French PM Lecornu said they must end the French political crisis and that improving French public accounts remains a priority, while he added that no one will be able to avoid the necessity of restoring France's public finances and that all the issues raised during the consultations held in recent days will be open to parliamentary debate. It was also reported that the French Presidency announced a new government on Sunday with Laurent Nunez named as Interior Minister, Roland Lescure renamed as Finance Minister and Jean-Noel Barrot renamed as Foreign Minister.
• Several people were injured in the German town of Giessen after someone fired shots in a marketplace, according to DPA citing a police spokesperson.