• Trump said the meeting with Xi was amazing & lots of decisions were made, he rated the meeting a 12/10; US-China agree 1-year trade truce.
• European bourses are broadly lower, US equity futures are mixed; META -8.8%, MSFT -2.3%, GOOGL +6.9% post-earnings.
• JPY struggles after BoJ kept rates steady and avoided any overt hawkish commentary; Ueda said no pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. USD manages to hold onto post-FOMC spoils.
• Global benchmarks (ex-JGBs) remain soft post-FOMC; EGBs pressured into the ECB.
• XAU returns back above USD 4k/oz following hawkish Fed cut, crude remain rangebound.
• Looking ahead, Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct) & Unemployment Rate (Sep), (Suspended Releases: US GDP & PCE (Q3), Weekly Claims), Events: ECB Policy Announcement, Comments from ECB President Lagarde, Fed’s Logan & Bowman.
• Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Coinbase, Reddit, MicroStrategy, Cloudflare, Riot Platforms, Eli Lilly, Comcast, Roblox, Mastercard.

TARIFFS/TRADE

OVERNIGHT

• US President Trump said the meeting with Chinese President Xi was amazing and a lot of decisions were made, while they will be providing conclusions on very important things and agreed that Xi will work very hard to stop fentanyl. Trump confirmed that China soybean purchases will start immediately and they agreed to reduce China fentanyl tariffs to 10%, as well as noted that they did discuss chips and will be talking to NVIDIA and others about taking chips, but are not talking about Blackwell chips. Trump said the rare earth issue has been settled and there are no more roadblocks on rare earths, while he said it's a one-year agreement that will be extended and tariffs on China will be 47%, down from 57%. Furthermore, he is going to China in April and Xi will be coming to the US sometime after that, while he rated the meeting a 12 out of 10.
• Chinese President Xi told US President Trump at the start of the meeting that it is a pleasure to meet him and they do not always see eye to eye, but this is normal and it is normal for economies to have frictions, while he added that China’s development goes hand in hand with the vision to make America great again. Xi also stated that China and the US should be partners and friends, as well as noted that trade teams have reached a basic consensus and they are ready to continue working to build a solid foundation for two-way ties.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the announcement after the Trump-Xi meeting will be a resounding victory for our farmers.
  • China's President Xi says China's economy is like an ocean, according to the Chinese state media. Conversation is better than confrontation when dealing with trade. On the Trump meeting: Both sides have good prospects for AI, and the US and China should aim to narrow down list of problems and extend cooperation.
  • China Commerce Ministry confirms the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures, China is to adjust some countermeasures. Says the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year. To pause countermeasures related to 301 investigation for a year. US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year.
  • US President Trump posts "I had a truly great meeting with President Xi of China", "agreed that they will begin the process of purchasing American Energy", large transaction may occur regarding Alaska.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened mixed but have been moving lower throughout the morning. Traders have had a hawkish leaning Powell and the Trump-Xi meeting to digest. On the latter, Trump sounded upbeat following the meeting whilst the China Commerce Ministry confirmed the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures.
• European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only really Tech and Healthcare leading whilst Media is found right at the foot of the pile. In terms of key movers today; Shell (-0.4%, mixed results and announced USD 3.5bln buyback), TotalEnergies (+2.7%, in-line metrics), Stellantis (-5%, 13% Y/Y increase in shipments though warned of one-time hit).
• US equity futures are mixed, (ES -0.2% NQ -0.2% RTY +0.1%), with slight outperformance in the RTY as it attempts to pare back some of the underperformance seen in the prior session. In terms of key pre-market movers; Meta (-7.8%, mixed results with focus on AI costs), Microsoft (-3%, strong results potentially overshadowed by Q2 rev. guidance), Google (+7.9%, beats forecasts).
• Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) is said to make an increased bid for Metsera (MTSR), according to Bloomberg; seen as a challenge to Pfizer (PFE).
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• DXY is flat, taking a breather following the upside seen in the prior session following the hawkish leaning Fed Chair Powell. To recap, the Fed cut by 25bps as expected, subject to 50bps and U/C dissent; it also announced it will end the balance sheet drawdown. However, Powell's presser thereafter struck a hawkish tone after he raised doubts regarding a December cut, stating that a rate reduction is "far from assured". Fed aside, focus has been on the Trump-Xi meeting. Overall, the POTUS seemed very positive with the outcome whereby he announced that China had agreed to soybean purchases and alluded to an "American Energy" agreement - still awaiting details on that front. The Chinese Commerce Ministry the agreement to extend some tariff exemption measures, adding that the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year. DXY currently trading in a 98.91 to 99.21 range.
• EUR is slightly firmer today. A number of key data points to keep traders busy, including; French GDP (beat exp.), Spanish inflation (slightly hotter-than-expected), German GDP (no growth Q/Q, whilst Y/Y beat exp.), State CPIs (point to cooler than exp. Y/Y print for the Nationwide figure, but perhaps to a lesser magnitude than expected). Overall little move seen in the Single-currency; currently trades at the upper end of a 1.1598-1.1637 range. Just after the mainland German inflation figure at 13:00GMT we get the ECB policy announcement. The ECB is expected to maintain the Deposit Rate at 2.0%, less than 1bps worth of easing is currently implied.
• JPY is the clear G10 underperformer today, following the BoJ. On that, very much as expected, the Bank kept rates steady at 0.50% - a decision which was subject to dissent by Takata and Tamura. Accompanying commentary also lacked surprises, and ultimately lacked any hawkish hints for the next meeting which may be driving the pressure in the JPY today. Moreover, some additional pressure in the Yen was seen during Governor Ueda's presser, in which he stated that there is no pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. USD/JPY has been gradually edging higher throughout the morning and trades at the upper end of a 152.17-153.88 range.
• GBP is essentially flat vs USD today. Briefly reclaimed the 1.32 mark overnight but has since been pressured below that mark, to trade within a 1.3182-1.3218 range. Focus on the UK's Budget at the end of next month; reports suggest that UK Chancellor Reeves is looking at an early scrapping of windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, according to FT. Elsewhere, the Chancellor is said to be considering a 2p rise in income tax, via The Telegraph.
• Antipodeans are marginally flat/flat firmer the Dollar today. Ultimately traders are digesting the Trump-Xi outcome and the pressure seen across the metals space this morning.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0864 vs exp. 7.1056 (Prev. 7.0843).
• Click for a detailed summary

FIXED INCOME

• A softer start to Thursday for USTs. The benchmark is holding around the post-Powell lows, but did briefly drop to a 112-22+ base, taking out the 112-24 trough from Wednesday. In brief, the Fed cut by 25bps, a decision subject to 50bps and U/C dissent. They also announced a decision to exit balance sheet reduction, as part of this, the MBA unwind will continue, but offset by T-Bill purchases as/when necessary. The bulk of the action came from Powell, who was hawkish regarding the near term path of policy, outlining that there is a growing chorus of feeling they should maybe wait a cycle, in terms of continuing to ease. Ahead, we have Fed’s Bowman (voter) and Logan (2026) scheduled, though Bowman is pre-recorded and Logan is on bank research; remarks should not cover current policy as the Fed is technically still in the blackout period until the end of Thursday. Friday’s docket has Logan, Bostic (2027) and Hammack (2026). Additionally, we will await the dissent letters from Miran (voter) and Schmid (2025) who preferred 50bps and U/C respectively. Since, newsflow has been focussed on tariffs. The mentioned 112-22+ base this morning came alongside a readout from China’s Commerce Ministry on the Trump-Xi meeting, a meeting POTUS described as a 12/10, the readout from China confirmed that the US is extending the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year.
• The Fed weighed on JGBs on Wednesday, to a 135.78 low into the close. Thereafter, JGBs picked up a touch following the BoJ. The decision was unchanged as expected, subject to two hawkish dissenters. However, modest upside was seen in JGBs after the statement as it did not contain any overtly hawkish signals. Specifically, this lifted JGBs above the 136.00 mark after the Tokyo lunch break, a move that continued thereafter to a 136.26 peak just before Ueda began. The main market-moving update was Ueda outlining that there is no pre-set idea about the timing of the next hike. A move that spurred some JPY pressure at the time but didn’t have much impact on JGBs.
• Bunds hit on the Fed alongside USTs, as outlined above. Early doors, the benchmark held near yesterday’s 129.21 base and then dipped a tick further to the current 129.20 low, a low print that occurred alongside the discussed commentary from China’s Commerce Ministry. Thereafter, Bunds lifted in-line with the likes of XAU as the risk tone dipped a touch; evidenced by European and US equity futures moving into the red vs the slightly firmer performance seen before the European cash equity open. At most, Bunds to a 129.38 peak but still lower by 19 ticks. No move this morning to a much stronger than expected French GDP figure for Q3, while hotter-than-expected Spanish CPI weighed a touch, but EGBs remained well within earlier ranges. Eurozone GDP came in above expectations, printing at 0.2% Q/Q (exp. 0.1%) and 1.3% Y/Y (exp. 1.2%) following the much better than expected French figure and Germany remaining at 0.0% (assuaging some concern around a negative figure). Just after the mainland German inflation figure at 13:00GMT we get the ECB policy announcement. The ECB is expected to maintain the Deposit Rate at 2.0%, less than 1bps worth of easing is currently implied.
• Gilts opened lower by 23 ticks, as the benchmark had yet to react to the Powell-pressure seen in peers. A move that extended by another 20 ticks to a 93.35 low shortly after the resumption of trade. Since, Gilts have found a base just below the 93.55 opening mark, posting losses of c. 30 ticks on the session. Newsflow for the UK remains focused on the November Budget, amid reports that Reeves is looking at the early scrapping of oil/gas windfall taxes and a potential 2p increase to income tax; the latter would be a manifesto breach. Note, the attention on Reeves herself has intensified owing to her admitting she breached housing rules regarding her family home, PM Starmer has since dismissed calls for an investigation.
• Italy sells EUR vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.5bln 2.85% 2031, 3.45% 2036 & EUR vs exp. EUR 1.5-2bln 1.645% 2031, 1.594% 2032 CCTeu.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Price action in crude benchmarks have been choppy throughout the APAC session and into the European trading day amid light crude-specific newsflow. WTI and Brent are currently trading around USD 60.20/bbl and USD 64.00/bbl as the market waits for a new catalyst.
• Spot XAU has stabilised above USD Wednesday’s trough of USD 3915/oz after falling back below USD 4k/oz following the hawkish cut by the FOMC. XAU fell just shy of Wednesday’s low to USD 3916/oz during the APAC session before slowly reversing the losses seen during the FOMC meeting. The yellow metal has returned back above USD 4k/t as the European session continues with XAU currently trading at USD 4004/oz.
• Base metals have fallen from Wednesday’s record highs as the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi ended with a lack of statements from both sides, indicating a possibility that the talks didn’t go as well as expected. However, recent comments from both sides indicated that the talks did go well, with the US cutting the fentanyl tariff to 10% and suspending the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year while the Chinese will halt rare earth export curbs and resume US soybean purchases.
• Russia's Lukoil says it has received an offer to acquire foreign assets from Gunvor
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• French GDP Preliminary QQ (Q3) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%)
• Spanish CPI YY Flash NSA (Oct) 3.1% vs. Exp. 2.90% (Prev. 3.00%); Core 2.5% (prev. 2.4%)
• German Unemployment Chg SA (Oct) -1.0k vs. Exp. 8.0k (Prev. 14.0k); Unemployment Total SA (Oct) 2.973M (Prev. 2.976M); Unemployment Total NSA (Oct) 2.91M (Prev. 2.955M); Unemployment Rate SA (Oct) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%)
• German GDP Flash YY NSA (Q3) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%); QQ SA (Q3) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -0.3%)
• Italian GDP Prelim QQ (Q3) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.1%); GDP Prelim YY (Q3) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• UK Chancellor Reeves is looking at an early scrapping of windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, according to FT. Elsewhere, the Chancellor is said to be considering a 2p rise in income tax, via The Telegraph.
• UK Chancellor Reeves has admitted she breached housing rules when renting out her family home, via BBC; PM Starmer has dismissed calls for an investigation into the incident.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump's administration taps three different funds to pay US troops this Friday, according to Axios.
• Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 2.87 (exp. 2.30), Rev. 102.3bln (exp. 99.73bln); shares rose 7% after-market.
• Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.13 (exp. 3.67), Rev. 77.7bln (exp. 75.40bln); shares fell 3% after-market
• Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q3 (USD) EPS 1.05 (exp. 6.76), Rev. 51.2bln (exp. 49.35bln), includes one-time non-cash income tax charge of USD 15.93bln; shares fell 6% after-market.

GEOPOLITICS

• US President Trump posted that the US has more nuclear weapons than any other country, which was accomplished during his first term in office, while he stated that because of other countries testing programs, he has instructed the Department of War to start testing US nuclear weapons on an equal basis, and that process will begin immediately.
  • US President Trump said he wasn't able to talk with North Korea leader Kim because he was so busy, but would come back to talk with Kim.
  • US Defense Secretary Hegseth said they carried out a lethal kinetic strike earlier today on another narco-trafficking vessel operated by a designated terrorist organisation in the Eastern Pacific.
  • Russian and Chinese officials discuss potential war settlement issues, via Tass.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is on a weaker footing with pressure also seen in Ethereum; BTC currently hovering around USD 110k.

BOJ

DECISION

• BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected, with board members Takata and Tamura the dissenters who proposed raising short-term rates by 25bps. BoJ said real interest rates are at significantly low levels and it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices, while it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target and noted that it is important to scrutinise without any pre-set idea whether the BoJ’s projection will be met, given high uncertainty on trade policy and its impact on the economy. Furthermore, the BoJ stated that underlying consumer inflation is likely to stagnate on slowing growth, but increase gradually thereafter, and is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027, while board members' median projections for Real GDP and Core CPI were mostly kept unchanged from the previous aside from the slight upgrade to FY2025 Real GDP to 0.7% from 0.6%.

UEDA

• No pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. A remark that lifted USD/JPY
• Need some more data until we decide to adjust degree of monetary easing.
• Possible to change policy even in the middle of the budget being compiled. Will adjust rate irrespective of the political situation.
• Reason for holding off on rate hikes is due to overall economies and trade policy uncertainties still being high.
• Expect next wage hikes to be roughly in line with this year's. Want to carefully watch wage negotiations especially in the autos sector given tariff impact.
• Click here for more details.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mixed after the Fed rate cut and Powell's hawkish presser, while participants also digested the BoJ decision and Trump-Xi meeting.
• ASX 200 lacked demand in the absence of tier-1 data and as markets reflected on the recent deluge of risk events.
• Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with price action indecisive amid the BoJ policy decision in which the central bank maintained rates, as widely expected and refrained from any major clues for when it will resume its rate normalisation.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive as the attention was on the Trump-Xi meeting, where the leaders exchanged pleasantries at the start, but were then quiet with no statements provided upon the conclusion of the meeting. However, Trump later commented that the meeting was amazing and confirmed a reduction in fentanyl-related tariffs, while he also said the rare earths issue was resolved and rated the meeting a 12 out of 10.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese Premier Li said it is necessary to implement requirements of high-quality development in all fields and aspects of economic and social development, while he added it is necessary to promote high-quality development as the theme, reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, and meet the people's growing needs for a better life. Furthermore, he stated it is necessary to focus more on strengthening the domestic cycle, coordinate the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, and deepen supply-side structural reforms.
• HKMA cut its base rate by 25bps to 4.25%, as expected.
• China to announce new financing tool to drive over CNY 6tln in investments, via Bloomberg citing Xinhua.
• Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK / 601288 CH) 9-month (CNY): Net Income 222.3bln, Net Fee Income 69.8bln, NII 427bln, NIM 1.3%. Q3 (CNY): net 81.4bln, +3.7% Y/Y; Operating Revenue 181bln, +4.3% Y/Y.
• ICBC (1398 HK) Q3 (CNY): Net 101.8bln, +3.3% Y/Y. 9-month: NIM 1.28%, Net Income 271.8bln, NII 610.9bln.
• CNOOC (0883 HK) Q3 (CNY): Revenue 104.9bln (exp. 97.6bln), net 32.4bln (prev. 36.9bln).
• Bank of Communications (3328 HK) 9-month (CNY): Net income 29.994bln, +0.15% Y/Y; NII 128.65bln, +1.46% Y/Y.
• China Construction Bank (0939 HK) Q3 net profit 95.3bln, +4.2% Y/Y.

EUROPEAN MORNING

US President Trump posted that "South Korea has agreed to pay the USA 350 Billion Dollars for a lowering of the Tariffs charged against them by the United States. Additionally, they have agreed to buy our Oil and Gas in vast quantities, and investments into our Country by wealthy South Korean Companies and Businessmen will exceed 600 Billion Dollars. Our Military Alliance is stronger than ever before and, based on that, I have given them approval to build a Nuclear Powered Submarine, rather than the old fashioned, and far less nimble, diesel powered Submarines that they have now. A great trip, with a great Prime Minister!"