• APAC stocks traded mostly higher overnight. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.2%.
• Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data disappointed amid a sharp decline in export orders.
• Fed’s Waller said he still advocates for the Fed to cut rates in December and said data fog does not tell you to stop.
• Crude futures gained at the open as participants digested the latest OPEC+ decision to raise output again by a modest 137k bpd in December before pausing for Q1 2026.
• In FX, DXY is steady, USD/JPY sits above 154 with Japan away from market, EUR/USD remains on a 1.15 handle, AUD marginally outperforms ahead of RBA this week.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Speakers including Fed’s Daly, ECB’s Lane & BoC’s Macklem, Supply from BoE Gilt Sale (long-term), US Financing Estimates.

SNAPSHOT

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks saw mixed price action on Friday although the major indices finished in the green and Consumer Discretionary surged thanks to Amazon's almost double-digit rally on a profit, revenue, and AWS beat, Conversely, tech was lacklustre with fluctuations seen in Apple as participants weighed the miss on some metrics (mainland China, iPhone, and Mac revenue) against the positive Q1 revenue outlook. Meanwhile, Utilities, Materials, and Staples underperformed and were in the red, while market-moving updates included reports that the US decided to attack military sites in Venezuela, which could come at any moment as the sites are being used to smuggle drugs, which spurred some risk-off trade, although US President Trump later refuted the prospects of a strike on Venezuela.
• SPX +0.27% at 6,841, NDX +0.48% at 25,858, DJI +0.09% at 47,563, RUT +0.49% at 2,478.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump commented on Friday about China, in which he stated that he would love to get rid of the extra 10% tariff and that the meeting with China was incredible, while he believes the deal with China will be long-lasting. It was also reported that US President Trump told Chinese President Xi that chip sales are "between you and NVIDIA".
• US President Trump said the US will not let China have NVIDIA's (NVDA) most advanced chips, while he also commented that he will not attend Supreme Court tariff case arguments and doesn't want to do anything to deflect the importance of that decision. Furthermore, Trump posted that the case on tariffs is one of the most important in the history of the country, and if a President is not allowed to use tariffs, the US will be at a major disadvantage against all other countries throughout the world, while he warned if they lose the decision, the US could be reduced to almost third-world status.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China has shown itself to be an unreliable partner in many areas, while he also commented, “we’ll see” if a 10% tariff will be enacted on Canada after the Reagan advertisement, and he is not planning on going to the Supreme Court arguments on trade policy on Wednesday, according to CNN.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said it will consider exemptions for the Nexperia chip export ban. It was separately reported that Nexperia’s Dutch headquarters said it welcomes announcements lifting the block on shipping chips, while the Dutch government said that China talks continue regarding a constructive way forward in Nexperia.
• Chinese President Xi proposed that China and South Korea properly manage differences through friendly consultations, while he called for the sides to strengthen strategic communication and consolidate the foundation of mutual trust. Xi also called for deepening China and South Korea cooperation in emerging sectors such as AI and biopharmaceuticals, as well as urged South Korea to work with China to practice true multilateralism and safeguard the multilateral trading system.
• South Korea’s presidential office said South Korea and China signed 7 MOUs, including a currency swap. It was also reported that a South Korean presidential adviser said they agreed with China to cooperate on stabilising supply chains and will continue working-level communication on China’s ban on Korean culture, while South Korea and China were said to have made progress on China’s effective ban on Korean culture.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said they agreed with Chinese President Xi to build a constructive and stable relationship, while she said they reaffirmed a strong US-Japan alliance through US President Trump’s visit. Furthermore, Takaichi said they are not planning to renegotiate the USD 550bln investment package with the US even after seeing the US-South Korea package.
• Canadian PM Carney met with Japanese PM Takaichi on the APEC sidelines and discussed the potential to expand a productive economic relationship between the two countries, building on USD 32bln in annual two-way merchandise trade, while the Canadian PM’s office said they stand ready to negotiate an even better trade deal for both Canada and the US.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Miran (voter) warned that the Fed risks a recession if it doesn’t cut rates rapidly, according to The New York Times.
• Fed’s Waller (voter) said on Friday that they have a lot of data despite the government shutdown and noted the labour market is weak and that tariffs are having a minor effect on inflation. Waller stated that inflation expectations are anchored and that they should look through tariff-driven inflation, while he added that inflation is coming back to 2% and the biggest concern now is the labour market. Furthermore, he still advocates for the Fed to cut rates in December and said data fog does not tell you to stop, as well as noted that the right thing to do is keep cutting, and he would say yes if President Trump asks him to be Fed Chair.
• US President Trump urged Senate Republicans to terminate the filibuster rule. US President Trump separately commented that they will ask the courts how they can legally fund SNAP benefits as soon as possible.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Trump administration will not appeal the judge’s ruling on SNAP benefits, while he also commented that the Fed should be cutting rates if inflation is dropping, according to an interview with CNN.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks trade mostly higher despite a lack of fresh major macro developments over the weekend and with thinned conditions as Japanese markets were shut for a holiday.
• ASX 200 lacked conviction as gains in tech, energy and financials were offset by weakness in healthcare, real estate and miners, while the RBA also began its two-day policy meeting, where the central bank is unanimously forecast to maintain its Cash Rate at 2.60%.
• KOSPI rallied to a fresh all-time high amid tech strength with notable gains in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, while South Korea and China reportedly signed 7 MOUs and agreed to cooperate on stabilising supply chains.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were ultimately higher although price action in the mainland was choppy with risk sentiment flimsy as participants digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%) eked slight gains but with upside capped amid quiet catalysts and ahead of this week's slate of earnings.
• European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Friday.

FX

• DXY began the new trading month little changed following a lack of major fresh macro drivers over the weekend. Nonetheless, Fed's Miran warned about risks of a recession if the Fed doesn’t cut rates rapidly, while on the trade front, the US confirmed that China is suspending the implementation of additional export controls on rare earth metals and is terminating investigations targeting US companies in the semiconductor supply chain.
• EUR/USD languished firmly beneath the 1.1600 handle with very little newsflow from the bloc to spur the single currency.
• GBP/USD remained lacklustre after slipping to a seven-month low late last week amid UK fiscal concerns, while there was also a previous report that Chancellor Reeves is plotting a tax raid of as much as GBP 4bln on pension perks as she targets higher earners in the Budget.
• USD/JPY traded sideways after it plateaued last week above the 154.00 level, and with Japanese participants away for Culture Day.
• Antipodeans were rangebound amid the somewhat indecisive overnight mood and with little reaction seen following the stronger-than-expected Australian Building Approvals data.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures were uneventful amid a lack of catalysts and with overnight cash treasuries trade shut due to the Tokyo closure.
• Bund futures remained afloat and took a breather following the choppy performance seen late last week.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures gained at the open as participants digested the latest OPEC+ decision to raise output again by a modest 137k bpd in December before pausing for Q1 2026.
• Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to raise oil output in December by 137k bpd and then pause for Q1.
• Turkish oil refiners are to cut Russian crude imports for December arrival with Azeri Socar buying four non-Russian cargoes, while Turkish state refiner Tupras increases purchases of non-Russian crude, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Spot gold swung between gains and losses but ultimately reverted to flat territory near the USD 4,000/oz level. Focus has been on news that China is abandoning its gold tax incentive, which means retailers will no longer be able to offset a value-added tax when selling gold.
• Copper futures lacked direction amid the mixed risk appetite overnight and disappointing Chinese PMI data.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin steadily retreated throughout Asia-Pac trade and dipped beneath the USD 108k level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese President Xi said at APEC that they should deepen open-source technological cooperation and create a competitive open innovation ecosystem. Xi also stated that China is to develop the ‘silver economy’ to address ageing population challenges and will continue to implement relevant initiatives on clean energy and green transformation. It was separately reported that Xi said the conditions and underlying trend of long-term growth of the Chinese economy remain unchanged, according to Xinhua.
• Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Chan said the city is set to achieve its annual target of 2%-3% for 2025 and noted that the economy grew 3.8% in Q3, which was the fastest pace of growth since Q4 2023.
• South Korea and Singapore agreed to cooperate on defence technology and signed an MOU on AI and green shipping, according to Korea’s presidential office.
• RBNZ 2025 stress test results noted that large banks are well placed to withstand the solvency and liquidity impact of a severe scenario caused by worsening geopolitical risks.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 50.6 vs. Exp. 50.9 (Prev. 51.2)
• Australian Building Approvals (Sep) 12.0% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. -6.0%, Rev. -3.6%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli PM Netanyahu warned that Israel was prepared to take further action against Iran-allied groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen, according to FT.
• Israel’s Defence Minister said the Lebanese government must fulfil its commitment to disarm Hezbollah and remove it from south Lebanon, while Israel vowed maximum enforcement will continue and intensify to protect northern residents.
• Israel reportedly conducted artillery strikes and destroyed residential blocks in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip.
• Israel announced on Sunday that it received the bodies of three hostages from the Red Cross in Gaza.
• Iran’s President said Tehran will rebuild its nuclear facilities with greater power, according to state media.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US Pentagon was reported on Friday to have approved the White House to transfer US Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, although left the final decision to the US President Trump, according to CNN, while the Russian Foreign Ministry said regarding reports about the US approval of Tomahawk supplies to Ukraine, that sending weapons to Kyiv will not help any settlement, according to RIA. However, US President Trump commented on Sunday that he is not really considering giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles.
• Ukraine drone attack causes fire at Russian Black Sea port of Tuapse, while authorities announced that an oil tanker and two foreign civilian vessels were damaged as a result of the drone attack on Russia’s Tuapse.
• Ukraine’s military said it is raising the number of its assault groups to counteract Russian troops and that it has improved positions in several districts in Pokrovsk. However, it also stated that the situation in Pokrovsk remains complicated and dynamic, while Russia’s Defence Ministry said Ukrainian soldiers surrounded in Pokrovsk began to surrender.

OTHER

• US President Trump threatened to cut off all US aid to Nigeria over the killing of Christians and said the US might go into Nigeria with “guns-a-blazing”, while he instructed the Department of War to prepare for possible action and separately commented that there could be US troops on the ground in Nigeria or airstrikes.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth posted "The killing of innocent Christians in Nigeria — and anywhere — must end immediately. The Department of War is preparing for action. Either the Nigerian Government protects Christians, or we will kill the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities."
• US and China agreed to set up direct communication between their militaries to help avoid conflict, according to US Secretary of War Hegseth, who also said the administration supports a strong and independent Vietnam, while the US wants a deeper military relationship with Vietnam and wants to expand the partnership with Vietnam and work to advance shared interests. Furthermore, Hegseth announced that the US military carried out another ‘lethal kinetic strike’ on a vessel in the Caribbean.
• South Korean President Lee said they will aid US President Trump to play a peacemaker role on North Korea.
• China criticised Japanese PM Takaichi for meeting with Taiwanese officials on the sidelines of APEC.
• Philippines signed a military pact with Canada as the former seeks to build a coalition of allies to deter China's aggression in the South China Sea.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK Chancellor Reeves was reported on Friday to be plotting a tax raid of as much as GBP 4bln on pension perks as she targets higher earners in the Budget, according to The Telegraph.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering higher bands of council tax to target expensive homes, via FT citing sources who said the idea is well established, the discussion is on the implementation; would reportedly raise several billion pounds. (FT)
• EU is devising plans to expand supervision of key financial markets infrastructure, including stock exchanges, crypto exchanges and clearing houses, as it seeks to eliminate fragmentation in the single market, according to FT.