• European bourses initially opened flat, but have since slipped into the red; US equity futures are mixed.
• DXY is slightly firmer, whilst Antipodeans slip as the risk tone deteriorates a touch.
• Bonds are firmer amid the softer European tone but largely awaiting a packed speakers docket, and data later this week.
• Crude complex started the session in the red, but has since reversed on geopolitical updates; XAU marginally subdued.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Canadian CPI. Speakers include Fed’s Williams, Jefferson, Kashkari, Waller; ECB’s Cipollone; BoE’s Mann; BoC’s Kozicki.

TRADE / TARIFFS

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the China rare-earths deal will “hopefully” be done by Thanksgiving, according to Fox News. Treasury Secretary Bessent said he is confident China will honour the agreement after the upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, and emphasised that Washington has “many levers” if Beijing does not comply.
• US President Trump said he does not think more tariff rollbacks will be necessary; he said top US officials spoke with their Chinese counterparts on Friday and that he is speaking to China about soybeans, according to Reuters.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump’s proposal to send USD 2,000 “dividend” payments from tariffs to US citizens would require congressional approval, according to Reuters.
• Tesla (TSLA) is now reportedly requiring its suppliers to exclude China-made components in the manufacturing of its cars in the US, a fresh example of the fallout from Washington–Beijing tensions, according to the WSJ.
• Brazil’s Vice President Alckmin said Brazil will continue working to reduce US tariffs further; he noted that progress has been made but there is still a long way to go, expressed optimism about further progress, and said the US government has taken a step in the right direction to reduce costs for its consumers, according to Reuters.
• USTR Greer has warned the EU that trade remains a “flashpoint” with Washington, according to the FT.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) began the morning around the unchanged mark, with trade tentative, though recently sentiment has soured a touch with most European bourses slipping into the red. Nothing really behind the latest bout of pressure, but does continue the subdued mood seen overnight.
• European sectors also opened with a positive bias, but now holds a negative bias. Utilities and Real Estate marginally top the pile whilst Retail lags. Dassault Aviation (+6.2%) bucks the broadly lower mood in Europe, after Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine had ordered 100 Rafale fighter jets.
• US equity futures (ES +0.2% NQ +0.2% RTY -0.1%) are mixed and have been moving lower in recent trade alongside the pressure seen in Europe. Macro newsflow light this morning, so traders will ultimately be mindful of the "delayed" US data releases dotted throughout the week, and NVIDIA earnings on Wednesday.
• Apple (AAPL) has intensified succession planning for CEO Tim Cook and is preparing for him to step down as soon as next year, with John Ternus, Apple’s Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, widely seen as his most likely successor, according to the FT.
• In its 2026 outlook, Morgan Stanley (MS) lifts its S&P 500 target to 7,800 for 2026, driven by strong EPS growth, positive operating leverage, AI-enabled efficiencies and an early-cycle “rolling recovery”.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• DXY is flat/modestly firmer and trades in a busy 99.29 to 99.47 range, given the lack of pertinent newsflow this morning but ahead of a packed weekly docket, which includes; the release of the delayed September NFP report, FOMC Minutes and a number of Fed speakers. Today’s docket is a bit more on the quiet side with only really the NY Fed Manufacturing report and comments via Fed’s Williams, Jefferson, Kashkari and Waller.
• EUR is a little lower today and trades just around the 1.1600 mark, within a 1.1596 to 1.1624 range. Newsflow for the region is relatively quiet ahead of the European Commission Autumn forecasts; there were some comments via ECB’s de Guindos who suggested that he is slightly more optimistic regarding growth, and expects inflation to converge towards target. Back to the Commission it raised its 2025 growth forecast for the bloc but cuts its view for 2026 to 1.2% (prev. 1.4%), while the inflation forecast was maintained for the year but increased in 2026. No significant EUR move seen, as such the single currency remains around the 1.16 mark.
• JPY is modestly lower vs the USD, and as is the case with peers, trade has been contained within a narrow 154.41 to 154.83 range. Overnight, price action was also lacklustre, and was ultimately little moved by a less-than-feared contraction in headline GDP – largely due to weak exports and lower tourism. Analysts at OxEco write that the dip in GDP will likely prove to be temporary, suggesting that consumption should modestly improve. On the fiscal side of things, Japan's Key Government Panel member Kataoka said that the Government must compile a stimulus package of up to JPY 23tln, funded with JPY 10tln in net bond issuance and JPY 13tln with tax and non-tax revenues.
• GBP is flat/slightly lower and trades towards the midpoint of a 1.3136 to 1.3180 range. Traders remain solely focused on the Budget developments, albeit updates over the weekend have been lacking on that front. This morning, The Times reported that Reeves is considering a nightly levy for British holidaymakers and foreign tourists on hotel stays and Airbnb-style rentals.
• Antipodeans are pressured, with the Aussie the marginal laggard across G10 pairs. Nothing really driving things for the currencies this morning, but follows on from subdued price action overnight, following the APAC risk tone.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0816 vs exp. 7.0956 (Prev. 7.082)
• Click for a detailed summary

FIXED INCOME

• A contained overnight session for USTs. Meandered within a narrow 112-15 to 19 range early doors with specifics light and participants preparing for a week of delayed data to finally start hitting and a substantial amount of Fed speak; into this, the odds of a cut in December have slipped to c. 40% vs the ~50% seen last week. Thereafter, the early European morning saw a modest deterioration in the region's risk tone (though, US futures remained strong), which provided some modest support to benchmarks generally. Lifting USTs further into the green and to a 112-22+ peak. If the move continues, we look to 112-23 from Friday before 112-31 and 113-00 from the two sessions prior. Today’s docket is dominated by Fed speak, where Williams (voter), Jefferson (voter), Kashkari (2026) and Waller (voter) are all due. From those, we expect Jefferson and Waller to provide texts, Jefferson and Kashkari to partake in Q&A’s while Williams is not expected to provide either.
• Bund overnight action was contained and similar to that outlined in USTs. Until the arrival of European participants, where a bout of upside occurred as the European risk tone deteriorated. Newsflow is relatively light and the move isn’t a particularly pronounced one, with Bunds firmer by just over 10 ticks at most at a 128.79 peak. If this continues, we look to 128.97 from Friday after which there is a gap until the figure and then levels between 129.19-40 from last week.
• Gilts are firmer, just about outperforming peers but the magnitude of action is also modest thus far. Gapped higher by 20 ticks to above the 92.05 mark before briefly losing the figure and then conformed to peers and lifted to a 92.29 peak, with gains of 14 ticks at most. Newsflow remains firmly focussed on the budget, and while there have been several scoops and reports around what Chancellor Reeves may do, there has not been anything of the magnitude seen last Friday. This week, the main focus point is Wednesday’s CPI, a series that provides early insight into the December deliberations, where Bailey may have to play the tie-breaking role once again.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks were muted to start the European session amid continued attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. WTI and Brent initially dipped USD 0.40/bbl on the open following the resumption of oil loading at Russia’s Novorossiysk Black Sea port. After dropping to a low of USD 59.32/bbl and 63.66/bbl respectively, benchmarks slightly rebounded, before a heftier bout of buying which sent WTI and Brent to a peak of USD 60.19/bbl and 64.48/bbl. Nothing really for it, but appeared to coincide with reports that Israeli warplanes targeted areas in southern Lebanon. This upside briefly pared, before then catching another bid back towards highs.
• Spot XAU is oscillating in a tight USD 4050-4106/oz band as the European session gets underway and the market steadies itself following Friday’s selloff.
• Base metals have traded rangebound throughout the APAC session and into the European session amid a lack of drivers to start the week. 3M LME Copper continues to trade well-within Friday’s range in a tight USD 10.79k-10.85k/t band as markets await fresh catalysts.
• India's October gold imports at USD 14.7bln.
• Russia's Kremlin says they have the capacity to eliminate the consequences of the Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk in a short period of time and recommenced all export activity.
• Indonesia is finalising a plan to impose export taxes of 7.5-15% on gold product shipments; designed to be effective from some point in 2026.
• All operations on intake and transfer of Kazakh oil has resumed at the Novorossiysk port, via IFX.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• UK Rightmove House Prices YY (Nov) -0.5% (Prev. -0.1%)
• UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Nov) -1.8% (Prev. +0.3%)
• Swiss GDP QQ (Q3) -0.5% (prev. 0.1%)
• Italian CPI (EU Norm) Final MM (Oct) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%); YY (Oct) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.2%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB's Rehn said the risk of inflation slowing shouldn’t be overlooked, according to Helsingin Sanomat. He added that “low energy prices, a stronger euro, and easing wage and services inflation pose a risk that total inflation slows excessively relative to our 2% target.”
• ECB's de Guindos says expect inflation to converge towards target. Uncertainty has abated but still a defining feature of out times. FSR will focus on 3 big risks, first is about risk of financial market corrections. There's a risk of abrupt shift in sentiment. Fiscal challenge also a key vulnerability. Banks may face deterioration of credit quality. Banks resilience is underpinned by profits and capital. Adverse economic shocks could lead to rising corporate defaults, valuation corrections and losses for private funds and their investors. Upholding the macroprudential, measures for banks implemented in recent years. Closer monitoring and strengthening the macroprudential framework for the non-bank sector. Slightly more optimistic re. growth. Wage dynamic are going in the right direction.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering a nightly levy for British holidaymakers and foreign tourists on hotel stays and Airbnb-style rentals, via The Times.
• EU Commission President von der Leyen, in a letter to member states, says the scale of Ukraine's financing gap is significant. They have identified three main options. According to Reuters sources, the three options in the Ukraine financing are not mutually exclusive and can be combined or sequenced.
• European Commission Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast: "shows continued growth despite challenging environment". Click for details.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed's Williams (Voter) convened a meeting with banks over a key lending facility, according to the FT.
• Trump administration officials, including Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., discussed scaling back the role of FDA Commissioner Marty Makary; RFK Jr. also considered installing a new leader to manage the agency day to day, according to the WSJ.
• US President Trump posted that House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files, via Truth Social.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli warplanes have targeted areas in southern Lebanon, via Iran International citing Al-Mayadeen Network.
• Israeli forces raided the city of Dura south of Hebron in the West Bank, according to Reuters.
• Israel’s Defence Minister said the multinational force led by the US will take charge of disarming Hamas in Gaza, according to Reuters.
• US Central Command said Iran’s use of military force to seize a commercial vessel in international waters is a violation of international law, according to Reuters. US Central Command said that on Friday it detected Iranian forces boarding an oil tanker flying the Marshall Islands flag in international waters, and that the tanker Talara was seized after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces boarded it via helicopter.
• Iran’s foreign minister said the nation is no longer enriching uranium at any site in the country, via AP.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said there will be no Palestinian state and that Hamas will be disarmed — by force, if necessary, according to Reuters.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said the current US approach in no way indicates readiness for equal and fair negotiations; he added that Iran will always be prepared to engage in diplomacy but not negotiations meant for dictation, according to state media.
• Lebanon will file a complaint to the UN Security Council against Israel for constructing a concrete wall along Lebanon's southern border that extends beyond the “Blue Line”, according to the Lebanese presidency.
• US President Trump warned that countries doing business with Russia will face sanctions under new legislation and said Iran may be added to that list, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump is reportedly considering a "bilateral security agreement pledging to defend Saudi Arabia in the event of any attack", via Politico citing sources.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russia's Novorossiysk Black Sea port resumed oil loadings on November 16, according to Reuters sources and LSEG data.
• Ukraine's military says it struck an oil refinery in Russia's Samara region, according to Reuters.
• Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Yablukove in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, according to TASS.

CHINA-JAPAN

• Japan is to send a senior diplomat to ease tensions with China, according to NHK.
• China’s Coast Guard said a Chinese coastguard ship formation cruised past the Senkaku Islands and that the cruise was to protect rights and in accordance with international law, according to Reuters.

OTHERS

• US aircraft carrier has arrived in the Caribbean in a major build-up near Venezuela, via AP.
• US President Trump said he could have discussions with Venezuela’s President Maduro, according to Reuters.
• Russian President Putin held a phone call with Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu, according to the Kremlin.
• US President Trump said the US will test nuclear weapons like other countries, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is a little lower and trades just above USD 95k after the crypto complex took a hit over the weekend.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded mostly lower after the mixed lead from Wall Street, with sentiment in the region subdued as US President Trump over the weekend said he does not think further tariff rollbacks will be necessary. The Nikkei 225 saw modest losses on either side of 50k, while South Korea’s KOSPI (+1.5%) stood out as a clear outperformer amid strong gains in chip names after reports that Samsung is raising chip prices, whilst China's tourist warning to Japan was seen as a positive for South Korea. Focus remains on the tech sector this week in the run-up to NVIDIA earnings midweek.
• ASX 200 was subdued with sectors mixed. Telecoms, Healthcare, and Consumer Discretionary lagged, while IT and Energy outperformed.
• Nikkei 225 was choppy and briefly slipped under 50k following Japan’s GDP contraction — the first in six quarters, albeit shallower than feared. Rising tensions between Japan and China added pressure, with Japanese travel-related names hit after Beijing warned citizens against travelling to and studying in Japan.
• KOSPI was the outperformer, driven by gains in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix after reports that Samsung raised server memory chip contract prices by up to 60% in November due to shortages - the former also plans to add a new chip production line as demand rises. Broader gains were also supported by China’s warning against travel to Japan.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both traded with modest losses, broadly in line with regional moves (ex-South Korea). Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the China rare-earths deal will “hopefully” be completed by Thanksgiving, but stressed that Washington has “many levers” if Beijing does not comply. President Trump added he does not think further tariff rollbacks will be necessary, noting senior US officials spoke with Chinese counterparts on Friday and that discussions on soybeans continue.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) will build a new chip production line in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, with mass production slated to begin in 2028; the company also said FläktGroup is considering building a factory in South Korea, according to Reuters.
• Alibaba’s (9988 HK) Qwen has entered public beta as a direct challenge to ChatGPT.
• Japan’s government is reportedly considering compiling a stimulus package of around JPY 17tln, with a supplementary budget likely to be sized around JPY 14tln, according to Nikkei.
• Japan's Key Government Panel member Kataoka says the government must compile a stimulus package of up to JPY 23tln, funded with JPY 10tln in net bond issuance and JPY 13tln with tax and non-tax revenues. Adds: BoJ should move cautiously with policy normalisation. Should wait until March or April 2026 to raise rates. Should not rule out FX intervention in addressing excessive yen weakness.
• India Trade Official says India and US could soon agree to address reciprocal tariffs as part of first part of the agreement. India and USA are likely to address broader trade issues in the second part of the agreement.
• Japanese PM Takaichi to meet with BoJ Governor Ueda on Tuesday at 06:30 GMT.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese GDP QQ (Q3) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.6%); first contraction in 6 quarters.
• Japanese GDP QQ Annualised (Q3) -1.8% vs. Exp. -2.5% (Prev. 2.2%, Rev. 2.3%).
• Japanese GDP QQ Capital Expend. (Q3) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.8%).
• Japanese GDP QQ External Demand (Q3) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.2%).
• Japanese GDP QQ Private Consumption Prelim (Q3) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.4%).
• South Korean Export Growth Revised (Oct) 3.5% (Prev. 3.6%); South Korean Import Growth Revised (Oct) -1.5% (Prev. -1.5%)
• New Zealand Food Price Index (Oct) -0.3% (Prev. -0.4%)