17th September 2018

• US President Trump ramps up tariff talk on China, ready to go ahead with USD 200bln in tariffs, as according to source reports
• Asian equities negative and European equities choppy as the tone sours; FX markets stable
• Looking ahead, the highlight is US NY Fed Manufacturing

TRADE

US President Trump was said to want to go ahead with USD 200bln in China tariffs despite talks and told advisers to...

• Asian equity markets began the week with a subdued tone after Trump reportedly told advisers to proceed with tariffs on a further USD 200bln of Chinese goods
• China reportedly may not participate in planned trade discussions with the US if the Trump administration goes ahead with additional tariffs
• The EU is secretly preparing to accept a frictionless Irish border after Brexit in a move that raises the prospect of PM May striking a deal by the end of the...

• Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the US where the S&P 500 notched a 4th consecutive gain
• Chinese data saw Industrial Production print in-line with expectations and Retail Sales beat, while Fixed Assets Investments growth declined to a fresh multi-year low
• BoE Governor Carney said MPC cannot cut rates to offset a no deal Brexit and that house prices would plummet in a no-deal scenario
• Looking ahead, highlights include the Russian rate decision,...

• TRY vs. USD weakens over 3% after Turkish President Erdogan wants Interest Rate cut ahead of expected hike
• Oil sliding as EIA says OPEC ramped up production to cover Iranian losses
• Looking ahead, highlights include, BoE, ECB & CBRT rate decisions, US CPI, weekly jobs, supply for the US

• Asian equity markets were mostly positive with sentiment underpinned by hopes of a de-escalation of the trade dispute after the US invited China for trade talks
• UK PM May is set to announce strict immigration controls as part of an olive branch to Brexiteers. Reports still suggest that her tenure remains under threat
• Looking ahead, highlights include IEA Monthly oil report, BoE, ECB & CBRT rate decisions, US CPI, weekly jobs, supply for Italy and the...

• Dark clouds clearing for UK PM May as ERG downplays overthrow but presents an alternate Brexit deal
• Oil extends previous sessions gains post API’s as Hurricane Florence approaches the Carolinas
• CAD extends overnight gains NAFTA nears a perfect storm on dairy access
• Looking ahead, highlights include, DoEs, Fed’s Brainard & Bullard and supply from the...

• Asian equity markets were lower across the board after the region failed to sustain the early momentum from US
• Around 50 Conservative MPs opposed to PM May's Brexit plan have met to discuss how and when they could force her to stand down
• CAD was boosted by source reports Canada is prepared to allow US dairy access in NAFTA talks
• Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, DoEs, Fed’s Brainard & Bullard, supply from...

• European equities sold off amid reports China is to ask WTO for trade sanction authorisation vs. the US
• UK Employment Report beats expectations, with Cable then volatile amidst various reports about 1.3100 barrier defence offers in decent size, stops, technical selling and even ‘fat finger’ trades
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Wholesale Inventories, APIs, OPEC meeting, supply from...

• Asian equity markets eventually traded mostly higher amid a similar performance in the US
• In FX, EUR/USD was quiet but managed to reclaim the 1.1600 handle nonetheless and GBP/USD remained firm above 1.3000
• UK Conservative Party Brexiteers are said to have failed to reach an agreement on an alternate Brexit plan
• Looking ahead, highlights include, UK jobs data, German ZEW, US Wholesale Inventories, APIs, OPEC meeting, supply from...

• BTPs strengthening on increased Italian budget confidence
• European equities marginally higher with FTSE MIB outperforming; FX majors seeing choppy trade
• Looking ahead the highlight is Fed’s Bostic

• Asian equity markets began the week mostly subdued following the lacklustre performance on Wall St last Friday after Trump doubled-down on his tariff threats against China
• In FX, EUR/USD and GBP/USD contained, while AUD/USD and NZD/USD eye a test on the 0.7100 and 0.6500 levels to the downside respectively
• EU are reportedly preparing to give instructions to EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier to help achieve a Brexit deal. Meanwhile, Eurosceptic proposals...

Week In Focus:

• European equities trade slightly softer (Eurostoxx 50 -0.4%) following a negative lead from Asia
• EMs continue their re-emergence ahead of key US NFP data
• Looking ahead, highlights include, US & Canadian jobs reports, Baker Hughes rig count, Fed’s Rosengren, Mester, Kaplan and ECB’s de Guindos
• ASIA

• Asian equity markets traded lower following a lacklustre lead from Wall St where continued weakness in tech and underperformance in energy dragged most US majors lower
• US President Trump reportedly hinted that a trade fight with Japan could be next 
• In FX markets, the DXY was flat and consolidated around the 95.00 level as the greenback traded mixed against its major counterparts ahead of today’s key US jobs data
...

• European equities trade mixed with outperformance in the FTSE MIB again
• Markets gear up for an announcement as public consultation ends for USD 200bln worth of Chinese goods
• SEK is the main G10 mover and loser as the Riksbank rolled back its rate hike path and ruled out October
• Looking ahead, highlights include ADP Employment Change, Initial jobless claims, Durables revisions, ISM nonmfg PMI, DoEs, ECB’s Lautenschlaeger and...

• Asian equity markets traded mostly lower after a similar lead from US where the Nasdaq underperformed and the tech sector saw its worst performance in over a month
• In FX markets, the DXY remained subdued and tested the 95.00 level to the downside. JPY firmed following the Hokkaido earthquake
• Looking ahead, highlights include the Riksbank rate decision, ADP Employment Change, Durables revisions, ISM non-mfg PMI, DoEs, ECB’s Lautenschlaeger and...

• European equities trade on the backfoot (with the exception of the FTSE MIB) as the Eurostoxx 50 index falls over 1%
• DXY remains firmly above recent near 95.000 lows and mainly towards the top of today’s range, with broad gains vs almost all rivals
• Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Trade, BoC rate decision, weekly API inventories, Fed’s Bullard, Kashkari, Bostic and Williams

• Asian equity markets traded lower across the board after the Labor Day hangover on Wall St amid ongoing trade uncertainty
• In FX markets, the greenback was relatively flat with price action subdued as its major counterparts attempted to nurse losses
• EU's Barnier has deemed PM May's Chequers plan as unacceptable. Separate reports suggest the EU could adjust the Irish border backstop to win UK's approval in Brexit negotiations
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK services...

• European equities trade mostly lower (Eurostoxx 50 -0.8%), with the core bourses unwinding gains and plunging into the red following a positive open
• A firm rebound in the DXY to almost 95.600 with ZAR hit even harder following an unexpected SA GDP contraction that means technical recession
• Looking ahead, highlights include ISM manufacturing, BoE’s Carney, Haldane, Tenreyro and Saunders, ECB’s Nowotny

• Asian equities were choppy with the region indecisive as trade-related concerns lingered and after a non-existent lead from the US
• In FX, the greenback was slightly firmer overnight. AUD was initially pressured by a wider than expected Current Account Deficit, but later found support following the RBA rate decision
• Rees-Mogg claims that he and Barnier, bonded in a meeting over their shared view that May’s Chequers plan is “complete rubbish”.
• Looking ahead, highlights...

• Asian equity markets traded mostly lower with the region cautious heading into an event-packed week
• This followed a lack of breakthrough in last week’s NAFTA related talks between US and Canada. Additionally, the public comment period for the proposed US tariffs on a further USD 200bln of Chinese goods is set to expire by Thursday
• GBP/USD was pressured and briefly fell below the 1.2900 handle on Brexit-related discord with EU’s Barnier said to...

• EU bourses have extended opening losses (Eurostoxx 50 -1.1%) heading into month end as Trump’s trade feuds with the China, EU and Canada sways sentiment
• Major FX pairs are relatively contained. EUR unfazed by soft EZ CPI, GBP awaits Brexit updates and EM once again in focus
• Looking ahead, highlights include Chicago PMI, ECB’s Nowotny and de Guindos

• Asian equities broadly lower with Trump on the warpath amid reports he is to back additional Chinese tariffs, reject the EU’s auto proposals and once again threatens WTO membership
• Losses in most the Asia-Pac region have been stemmed as participants also digested a trifecta of encouraging China PMI data
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI, unemployment rate, Chicago PMI, ECB’s Nowotny and de Guindos

• European equities are largely on the backfoot (Eurostoxx 50 -0.7%) with underperformance in Germany’s DAX
• In FX, the EUR has retreated after another rally above 1.1700 vs the Greenback on broadly benign German state CPI and Spanish inflation data
• Looking ahead, highlights include German national CPI, US PCE price index, Canadian GDP and ECB’s Weidmann

• Asian equity markets traded mixed as the initial impetus from Wall St was eventually clouded by weakness in China
• In FX, EUR/USD is testing the 1.1700 handle and with GBP/USD at a 3-week high above 1.3000
• Looking ahead, highlights include German state and national CPIs, German unemployment rate, US PCE price index, Canadian GDP, ECB’s Weidmann to speak and supply from Italy